The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Scott- whatever I post will make no difference to the 30 off thousand trades or SP. But seriously. That debt is circa 20 times annual free cash flow at $60 oil. That’s way too much. Equity here on those numbers for me is practically worthless imo
Agree sir, and just posted to that effect. 10p looks like a decent entry price.
Just spent an hour reading. Anyone buying now imo is bonkers. Debt is almost 20x predicted free cash flow. And oil price $60?? Any small drop in oil price and that debt could well go higher. More likely 10p imo than £1
We are not distressed not yet. Debt not due till 2021. And thats only $350 million. Still have all off 2020 to improve our fortunes. With this last statement il be back jan 2021 now. Im off now bunkering mode. Give tullow 12-13 months to sizzle and fizz back to 150s. If im lucky it will if not im sure itl either be zero or way better than 40 f in pence
Unfortunately that should have been done 12 months ago. Very different selling when an enforced seller - would get a fraction of that
It needs to sell up uganda completely. 22% was 900 million. 33% means $1.3 billion. Sell kenya. Suddenly the debt is of no concern..
Afren was a complete different ball game, corrupt management stealing the cash from under the noses of shareholders and corrupt government aiding and abetting the deceit . the SFO still following the case up I believe , this is nothing in Comparison to AFREN, your way off the mark there,
GLA
AFren directors went to jail... nothing to do remotely with what’s going on here so please P off to bed and jack off to release some pressure
Remember Afren 5 years ago just before Christmas started tanking big time from over £1. Seemed cheap at 50p but drifted down into the pennies and bust. A FTSE 250 oil company.
...Right...
take a sleeping tablet or two .
Watch out for the potential revision in reserves ... if this disappoints more downside is expected.
“Increased water cut” “faster than expected decline in well productivity”... all these are signs of potential impairment as the wells are no longer producing as expected... so a downward revision of total reserves is very likely...
'yes..and doesnt it strike you as strange'
I think thats how it often works. Old management team are stuck in emporers new clothes syndrome. Finally hits the fan and kitchen sinked for the turn around over next 3 years. We cant predict that kind of behaviour but clearly the old management havent been transparent
Expecting a dead cat bounce in the short term tho.... after that it’s all up to the management...
Pokerchips... yes and the viability is reflected in the share price ... until the next RNS of course and only if tlw comes up with a credible to continue with It’s debt repayment and low cost production.
" It might be that the new production targets are overly cautious"
yes..and doesnt it strike you as strange that they cant get 2019 production estimates right..what 2 if not 3 times...yet....they seem to be able to give out ....the next 3 years !!
E_AL liquidity headroom from debt is not a comfort quite the opposite... unfortunately it’s the only source of capital available.
This would be good when a company is expanding not contracting
" 1 RNS calling into question the viability of the company "
what?..that is going to bit far isnt it ?
Underlying cash operating costs per boe ($/boe) = $10 - end of 2018
It might be that the new production targets are overly cautious
Not sure how many times I have to repost this on here:
"read on twitter:
“ Tullow would have to repay £300m worth of debt in 2021 and a further $650m in 2022.
Tullow itself was stressing today that it "has liquidity headroom in excess of $1bn and no near-term debt maturities”
So no debt payment to be made before 2021 and with £1bn liquidity no fear of placing."
The issue NOW with tullow is is that will it be able to continue paying down debt with 30% less production going forward and potentially higher Cost of Production because of the new field problems??
Overdone or not ... that's arguable but the previously strong market cap compared to peers was on the basis that the company could generate enough Free Cash Flow from 90k-100k LOW Cost production to pay down debt.
Now this investment case has been thrown out of the window with 1 RNS calling into question the viability of the company... the bloodbath is kinda justified looking things this way...
Next RNS will be crucial.