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Cannot expect more news yet so we all have to hold and hope - after many years I am in for the real deal -whatever that turns out to be, like a few others on this Board. Just deeply fristrating!
They don’t need any government input to et to first power they have all they need from the government now ! They will have to deal the a new goverment if that’s what happens when and if it happens .. I sure no government is going to turn their back on such an important project .. unless it’s run by you Bots .. but I think that would be difficult from a bedroom in Bradford ….even for you
Ive no idea how long it takes to build these and get them running(someone will I presume) but it seems to be taking an age.
11th Sept we heard they were site clearing for Substations
27th Oct we heard it was 36% complete
24th Jan we hear its 37% complete
23rd Feb its 38%complete a very slow 4 month but the last update on the 26th April it was 50% complete some progress at last.Since then nothing,its about time for some sort of update to get an idea when they will be finished(knowing Tlou it will be next year)and I am sure someone will come along and say you know these things take time.
Good Luck everyone lets hope we are all still alive to(get my money back)see some profits.
I guess you guys have all the answers and logic then. Tell me then why has Botswana proved to be so incredibly challenging for TG and team for so many years. I mean, by your logic, Botswana is a great place, efficient and pretty rich - so should all work swimmingly for all concerned.
Govt payments (which include BPC) is a nightmare there, has been for several years. Budget deficits have been increasing since covid, and now diamonds are well out of flavour. Anglo has announced it is selling De Beers which is a massive deal for Botswana. Elections are in October which is a massive deal for Govt there. We can pretty much write off the rest of the year now as Govt are preoccupied elsewhere yet again.
I cannot remember which year it was, but I shared a ward with an old guy who had spent ll his working life in various parts of Africa. I think he was a hydro-electricity engineer.
He had nothing bad to say about Botswana.
The thing I remembered most was that at one time , the whole indigenous population of Botswana could live off the national wealth / income from diamonds. He was retired so when this was I dunno. He was almost surely in upper management or higher rather than a pick and shovel type. Botswana does not have the watercourses for Hydro , so I doubt he spent much time there workwise. If BPC can make a profit at TG prices , rather than a certain loss of the highest import prices - diamonds will have an ally in the economy to improve it.
Another reason why they'll want TLOU to accelerate production and reduce their reliance on imports?
Speculate to accumulate comes to mind. I'm expecting several years befor Botswana is self sufficient but TLOU will prosper in those years.
I think Bots is forgetting that if Botswana don’t pay their bills. Especially to a foreign company who have invested millions in a project that will ultimately benefit their country . What message does this send out to other potential foreign investment .. that the country is a bad payer and should be avoided … not the look they would want to promote surely !
The veracity of the statement about BPC payments, if true , is likely to be based on foreign countries experience.
South Africa for many years, but with Eskom is no longer the force it was - there are now others.
Eskom could not supply S.A. demand , and only exported to Botswana because they were prepared to pay more , a few carrots more? Eskom took the carrot!
We think BPC are paying up to $30 for the TG unit of power, and it may have reached $40 from a post on here.
I have little doubt that BPC was being ripped off by the supply and demand curve.
Contrast the position we hope to see this year!
TLOU , domestically placed in Botswana , supported by the locals who'll want the jobs they create, and the Govt for various reasons that improve their economy, businesses , and living conditions for the population in general.
Critically , TG has promised to undercut import prices whilst still making more profit than the same electricity would earn in Australia - originally somewhere in the range $12 to $30 per unit - you'd think both will be more now.
The goodwill is clearly likely to be mutual and BPC and Govt will not want to see TLOU struggle to expand until Botswana is self-sufficient on electricity. And if TLOU are compromised there is always the option to deal with SAPP network at a higher price no doubt.
Botswana is proud of its reputation abroad - many countries rate them highly against other African countries.
TG rated them highly in the first place. Current criticism of the Govt is unfair - everybody with an interest in TLOU know we have not reached a start point until the TX line is commissioned and electricity is being delivered to Serowe and the grid.
They are leaving it to TG bring that home in 2024 with respect! Once TG can demonstrate a live service, it will not surprise me if the Govt find money for Grants or Loans to TLOU to speed up the expansions. Until then , we all sit with crossed fingers that TG is still TG from ten years ago! Olda and wiser is my belief!
And , heaven forbid, news of earnings might attract the big boys to look at Botswana and our golden nuggets!
8p is likely by Xmas if TG meets the estimated times. If Serowe is connected to Orapa (don't think it is) the sponsorship from industry on the Botswana grid could follow. 2025 could be interesting - but lets get power to Serowe by Xmas first!
Fair enough point Olda on the market cap jumping upon delivery of first electricity - that the POC has been proved etc. A double to 4p is not such a huge stretch i reckon, but I suspect there will be significant sellers on the way to 8p.
As for another raise, again imo that is unavoidable - assuming TG and team want to scale up operations quickly. However i do think the bigger problem at this time for Tlou will be getting paid regularly and on time by BPC for the electricity sold to them. One aspect that most here are blissfully unawares is that cash is in desperately short supply in Botswana; that BPC is basically insolvent; that Govt has for many years been desperately cash strapped; that Botswana is a wonderful country but large land mass with incredibly small population and therefore small economy/GDP..... Economies of scale in Botswana are basically Ass about Face - think France economy v Botswana economy and work it through ...
Renewables is the way forward for the Energy mix in Namibia/ Botswana - refer the 5GW solar plan there being promoted by Power Africa being promoted by US Govt. And Namibia recently secured $150m or so funding from World Bank to help them figure out the infrastructure and detail around this project. Botswana has yet to secure similar funding - which means they are behind the curve (not leading on this). Which in turn means this project is moving just as slowly as CBM there - which is a shame because things there that obviously make economic and common sense to us all are simply struggling for traction etc.
And ' the struggle for traction' is what sadly defines Tlou / CBM / TG / early bird investors
M£23.75. Once the electricity starts flowing, that capital value must at least double pending profits. Once making profits, even marginal, then 8p will only value our capital at less than M£100. Very doable IMO so long as we don't need another raise.
WAS NOT on the roll!
There is something afoot. Having never voted Labour in my life - indeed my father once threatened to bar me from his house if I voted Tory - but that was just bluster and he changed his view and said "my lot" would do more for me than "his lot" would do for him. My flat in Lambeth was Kate Hoey territory - 100% certainty. I grew up in Taunton constituency , Edward Du Cann territory - another 100% winner. In my 8 months in Yorkshire , Keighley was the ultimate marginal in the country and, in 1973/74 , previous elections were always in line with the party that won Keighley?
Their was a General Election and I was on the electoral roll!! FFS? Worse was to follow , I moved to Dorchester and Ted Heath called a referendum on entering the Common Market or not! Neither Liz nor I were on the electoral role for that either. In Lambeth I voted for Lord Sutch to help him save his deposit - which did not happen!
Keir Starmer has just impressed me for the first time. In his own words he effectively said the only things he can change until he is elected as PM is within the Labour Party itself. And he boasts his anti-semiticism measures were a success and Corbyn is history.
His ambitions for the country are all in the wings but there is no way on earth they can be tackled simultaneously due to the costs- and those are theoretical at best. As he impliments plans with the highest priority, a few at a time, he will know which other plans are within budget.
Scrapping student fees and reducing NHS waiting lists are high on his list but BOTH together are unaffordable.
Hence he dropped student fees in favour of Health. He never said if the plan still exists or whether it is just lower priority but he looked to be in the real world to me. Nationalising Green Energy , basing GB Energy in Scotland (he is in Glasgow today) , and bringing the energy business back to Britain for more British workers and companies are his plan. Apparently we import plant from overseas for everything green! Wind turbines in particular.
I'm not as worried about Keir himself but he has so many shadow cabinet women that terrify me!
Rishi bet Piers Morgan £1000 (to charity) that Ruanda flights would happen before the next election!
He has declined to pay the bet because one person volunteered and is already in Ruanda!
They shook hands on the bet and does not very good for him - perhaps he does not give to a charity?
He might be more frugal than TB?
Pot and kettle springs to mind there Bots …
Good man Brad - just in case you forgot, you have a pretty foul mouth yourself !! The C-word was used I seem to remember ......... Not your finest moment.
Good man Winni - always good when fellow posters join in the spirit of engagement. Just amazes me endlessly why you have little to offer other than criticism of my posts. It really makes this message board such a joyous place to exchange views and opinions.
Free is on the back foot now because he knows he showed his bias in previous criticisms. I imagine if he does post again, he will be more guarded.
It is so much better being civil BOTS.
Finance does some weird things - I aways assume Bonds and Notes were very different beasts - a marriage certificate versus a few kisses on a post it? The link makes them look the same thing.
I am sure the level of understanding amongst the audience here is at every level - that link is so well written in clear English. And it is now bookmark if I want to view it again , sparing my bookmarks in the browser which are too numerous already.
The directors are given free shares as bonuses from time to time. I considered them to be the same as Convertible Notes except there is no money changing hands like the real thing, and no interest/accruing of shares over time. It was chasing the total number of issued shares after the loans/promises are completed.
I am so annoyed at the media - Rishi Sunak did so well yesterday and he was turned from a sponge to a small waterfall as it rained on his parade! From his reaction you'd never have known it was raining at all!
The media are talking about what an amateur presentation it was - I thought the total opposite!
Why someone did not appear with a huge umbrella to shield him and themself is worthy of criticism.
It would have been a light moment , and I am sure he'd have smiled and shared a joke with his aide about the weather. I was impressed.
I have cancelled my car insurance and completed a SORN. Bike insurance lapses in July along with the TAX and MOT so I'll do a SORN when the tax renewal.arises. Hastings Direct offered to reduce my bike to 3rd party until we realised it was only for 2 months.
I wish I'd just made a case for doubling the steroids to 0.2mg from 0.1mg (the minimum dose though the tablet can be snapped in half). I took 2 tablets after falling in Lidl and the results improved. The seated blood pressures and the standing up readings dropped but were closer together. I'd stil be mobile if I'd done that!
I have never had a problem while seated , so car and motor bike felt safe! All my problems after I stand up too quickly - erection problems I suppose :O) The lack of a dizzy spell is the medical worry - but the medics are ignoring the fact I have been falling on dog walks for a couple of years when picking up poo and standing up to quickly. And seated I am fine. Driving the bike at speed would likely be fatal for someone should I black out - why don't they take that into account - would any sane biker risk their own life and others? I have never had a dizzy spell whilst driving so why would I black out?
Not sure why you think Free has the ear of the board.. I certainly don’t .. But then that’s why you are such superior being to me of course ..
Annual Report would be where most people refer for company specific financial and operational information.
A$5m convertible note held by Doc; US$5m note held by BPOPF. Clooless will help confuse you with understanding the terms you don't understand.
I think you will find the rest here are pretty 'clued up' on how convertible notes operate as a financial instrument - but thank you for the link.
Not sure why you think Directors and others have note instruments. Even if they did, the numbers of equity issued against these would be a relatively small number.
What I believe you should focus on is that convertible note holders are classified as Preferred Creditors and therefore rank ahead of Equity holders in an orderly wind up or liquidation of the company. Again, this feeds to the 'argument' that TG has 'lost control' of Tlou Energy - given 2 principal shareholders effectively 'control' 55% or more of Tlou. It would be really good if Free would provide his insight and clarity on why he thinks otherwise.
And now to be somewhat controversial - minority shareholders are effectively screwed here. They have been for a pretty long time; just that most here didn't see it coming or couldn't bring themselves to admit it. And sadly, we are all in the small small boat.
I cannot find how you source what loans exist for a company, so I guess it needs a trawl through the RNS and Account releases?
I did find an excellent article on the various options , pros and cons etc though.
https://harperjames.co.uk/article/convertible-loan-note-explained/
The lack of response today , apart from BOTS , encouraged me to read his posts.
And I am glad I read the first one.
I would not have a problem with him if all his posts were reasoned out like that one.
His maths were not bad at all but he could have used this link to save some time.
https://tlouenergy.com/shareholders/
As to convertible notes I saw confirmation of one of his figures for the big two but nothing about the overall total of convertible loans and what has already been converted into shares over the years.
I suspect BOT's figures after loans are squared up are in the right ball park, but did he omit new issues from other loanees, e.g. TG and other directors ? I wondered how many different shareholders have convertible loans, and how many shares could result from them.
If the directors who forewent small fortunes in voluntary loss of salary for years had been awarded convertible loans on their sacrificed drops - the numbers would be significant. Especially Tony's huge sacrifice.
Found some interesting info on convertible loans in my search - notably companies can participate in them without having to justify their finances to the loanees - ideal for start-ups who do not have those figures yet!
Free challenged me previously on the issue of TG having lost control of the company. Well, he has 66m shares = 5% ownership (important number - but definitely not controlling). Admittedly he may have management control, but for sure he does not have economic interest control.
Feel free to clarify here for us all Free - thanks.
Clooless - really is time you started trying to get clued up mate. And stop making an endless fool of yourself.
Just to help ensure you are using correct numbers Brad:
Total shares in current issue - 1,270,133,251;
Doc shares under ILC - 357,142,856 = 28.118 per cent;
BPOPF shares now - 208,521,092 = 16.417 per cent;
So presently short of 50% - although conversion of their convertible notes would issue approx 400m more shares based on my maths - 160m to the Doc and 240m to BPOPF.
On that approx basis, the %s would change to approx 31% for the Doc and 27.75% for BPOPF = 57.75%.
I am wondering what waivers both parties will have sought / or the various Stock Exchanges will have given so that niether party were required to make a formal offer to acquire minority shareholder stakes.
For once, you raise an interesting point - but unknowingly. 1.670m shares potentially in issue ie fully diluted less approx 1.0 billion owned by Doc / BPOPF. Leaving 670m owned by management and other minorities - assuming the majority shareholders have Zero interest to particularly protect minority shareholders, and assuming there actually is a viable sustainable and successful business opportunity here ahead, they could consider tabling a bid to take out Minority shareholders - at what price I wonder....
Now there is an interesting topic to debate.
Morning Olda, without checking their holdings your 16% and my 34% for the Doc miraculously reaches 50% NOT 51% majority. Is that coincidence or by design?
It would explain why the Doc abstained from the placing , and the number of excess shares that the Fund took from the 169M that were available in January? If I am right , it shows the goodwill between TG , the Fund and the Doc and the faith everybody but one has in TG's leadership.
I am thankful to TG for keeping TLOU alive all these years. I honestly believe there are very few CEOs in the world who would not been panicked into taking fatal decisions and absolute lies.
We are on very happily course to achieve the original plan of CBM power at Serowe.
But just think - if it his plans did not mature as they have - we may have been producing a pipeline to Orapa , we might have had Crypto plants at Lesedi, or we might have found an alternative to Synergen Met if they did not achieve their dreams and a budding Hydrogen business could be underway by now? A very low % of that perhaps but full marks for putting us in a low risk partnership for TLOU if S.M. had produce their lance on time!
And if all those were impracticable we might be supplying Solar power to Serowe.
It does not stop there - the assets , the gas and the demand for power in Botswana , would have had some value to an established power producer surely? I have doubts because there has not been any talk of a hostile takeover despite the value of TLOU being laughable at less than 2p! Botswana was a good choice perhaps - maybe Africa is not the biggest lure forthe big boys or they don't read pigeon english newspapers from Gaberone??
Yesterday I saw my doctor at her surgery to discuss my black-outs at Cherries last home game whilst queing to leave the ground after the match, and opening the back door at home when I could not get my helmet off. Each time I went from a seated position to standing (postural hypotension) for which I am on steroids.
Without the steroids , I was severely dizzy, surroundings spinning, resulting in 4 broken ribs on new years eve!
Since the steroids no dizzy spells until those two faints or black-outs!
Without any warning of an impending attack, the doctor told me she was obliged to stop me driving immediately and she had to inform DVLA!
The alternative was hospital , and I would become their responsibility! The hospital agreed with my doctor after an ECG and blood tests. They doubled my steroids and I am ordered off the roads until I last 6 months without fainting. They trust me to tell DVLA so the ball is my court. I live on the outskirts of the conurbation so transport is important. There is a handy bus to Wimborne or Poole every half hour so this is going to add years to my age if I use one of those shopping trolleys. Football season will be underway by 9th November - a 10 mile+ journey by motorbike and further by public transport - adding hours to the travel time there a
Good morning all.
If Anglo American get sold or are broken up could this mean the contracts for the power supply to Orapa could be up for negotiation? Could TG grab a slice of the pie for next year when we are (fingers crossed) producing power? Or is it a case of out of our league at the present time?
Pity if its the latter.
I recall reading on here that the Bots Civil Servants Pension Fund eventually agreed to raise their holding to some 16%.
Hopefully we can get to production without another raise but if I am wrong, I would be inclined to combine it with a Share Capital Reconstruction (at least 10 for 1)
Not been on for a while. Renovating me bungalow. I see the paid influencer is still with us. Still stopping up until 05:00 trying to find a morsel of news nobody else has found to give his ego the rush it needs to survive. Pretty sad life really.
Can anyone tell if Tlou got funding in Botswana? The last I heard BOTS didn’t think it was possible. LOL LOL