Thungela Res Share Chat (TGA)

There could be a trading update say 7am on Tuesday. I would be surprised if there was no mention of Q1 performance during the AGM.

I'd be surprised if there was any significant trading announcements at the AGM itself. They would be subject to rules on RNS/SENS, which would presumably mean publishing online, out of hours as usual. My bet is any update is made post-AGM to avoid the distraction it might bring.

I hope the SP stays at this level long enough for me to reinvest the dividend which should arrive on Monday.

Richt9999 - yes TGA is printing money at the moment. I really don't get why the market isn't responding to this.
My calcs also show it will earn current MV this year, but pre-tax (I use a conservative 25% tax rate) and also before the deduction of the 10% of profits that goes to the community and employee trusts.

All very quiet considering this time next week there could have been a very significant uplift as TGA could be estimated (At the AGM)to earn it’s current MV in this calendar year.

Thank you for the correction. 6 days to wait for hopefully a pile of good news.

AGM 24 May

SP maybe up by around 7% next week with then a bump on the 23rd of maybe same again, but this is pure speculation. It’s making soooooo much cash!

We don't have a clear history of the level of communication this BoD intends to give.
But we do know that interims were published in Mid Aug and finals in Mid Feb, so if the BoD does decide to provide a Q1 update it should be coming within the next week ... and I for one would really like to see the announcement that Q1 revenue is 1bn and net profit 250m ... share price could rise above £30 !
This is already a multi-bagger for me, but could soon overtake EUA as my best return ever.
I was lucky enough to get into EUA at 2.5p (missed the 0.6p by a month !) and top sliced my way to an overall 8-bagger before I close out. Here I bought below 250p and have top sliced 1/3rd crystalising 150% profit but still expect to double my money within the next few months. We made our profits in H2 last year when coal averaged around $150p.ton; Q1 has averaged around $250p.t and Q2 is shaping up to be around $300p.t. The profit margins at the moment are simply astronomical. We could make our current market cap in profit in 2022 if coal stays around the $350-400 mark for the remainder of the year. Truly astronomical !

Is this the new normal seems small rise back down around the same mark, we need the next update so this stock can take off again.

More buys than sells on that day so it is assumption that the 2m was a buy not a sell

2m today says UNKNOWN, could be a sell or buy. Do you know which?

Some big buys recently 2m Friday and two 2m today someone very confident

When is the AGM please?

Ban on import of coal and certain solid fossil fuels
Amid debate about potential restrictions on oil and natural gas imports from Russia, the EU imposed a ban from 9 April 2022 on the direct or indirect purchase, import or direct transfer of coal and other solid fossil fuels (as listed in Annex XXII) into the EU if originating in Russia or exported from Russia.4 The ban also applies to related technical, brokering and other services, as well as financings and financial assistance. Contracts concluded before 9 April 2022 (and ancillary contracts necessary for their execution) may still be executed until 10 August 2022, in which case there is no requirement for authorisation or notification - https://www.whitecase.com/publications/alert/eus-fifth-wave-russia-sanctions-target-russian-coal-imports-russia-related
Data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) by Anadolu Agency showed that Russia had exported 262 million tons of coal in 2021, increasing 7% year on year.

Now if chinese coal was banned wouldn't that be good news?

Have Russian sanctions even started. August was the deadline. Sadly crazy Putin does not look like stopping anytime soon

Everyone keeping their powder dry until the AGM perhaps when it should become clear just hours much cash the company is currently generating. Also we will learn about the company’s plans for shares buy backs. Maybe a trading update.

I have been monitoring some of the bulks leaving the RBCT coal dock recently and some are making the long trip round the Cape to Europe.

Xiao May, left RBCT on 16th March, arrived off CIVITAVECCHIA in Italy yesterday
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:6536274/mmsi:636019499/imo:9891878/vessel:XIAO_MAY

Rainbow N, left RBCT on 21st March, en route to PLOCE in Croatia
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:716136/mmsi:538006420/imo:9488803/vessel:RAINBOW_N

Bahri Grain, left RBCT on 5th May, currently en route to Italy
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:475394/mmsi:403517000/imo:9660528/vessel:BAHRI_GRAIN

There may be many more, as I only see a few of the departures.
Gone very quite on here re Withholding tax, any successes?

Coal shortage and heatwave spark India's power woes

By Soutik BiswasIndia correspondent

IMAGE SOURCE,AFP

Image caption,

Three-quarters of the electricity produced in India uses coal

9 May 2022

For more than a month, Sandeep Mall's engineering goods factory next to the Indian capital, Delhi, has been facing crippling power cuts, sometimes up to 14 hours a day.

The 50-odd machines in the factory located in a major manufacturing hub in Faridabad make products for aeronautics, automobile, mining and construction industries.

"Every time the power goes off, the machines stop, the semi-finished products get rejected and we have to start all over again," Mr Mall says.

That happens when he fires up diesel-powered generators to keep the factory running. He says it is three times as expensive to run it on diesel than what he pays to the local power transmission authority.

"This erodes my competitiveness, cuts into my profits. It's a complete mess, and is very frustrating," Mr Mall says.

"These are the worst power cuts I have faced in over a decade."

Beginning in April, power cuts and outages have rippled across India, slowing factories, closing schools, and sparking demonstrations. Two in three households said they were facing power outages, according to more than 21,000 people in 322 districts surveyed by LocalCircles, a polling agency. One in three households reported outages of two hours or more each day.

Image caption,

Sandeep Mall's engineering products factory near Delhi has been facing outages up to 14 hours a day

At least nine states, including Haryana, where Mr Mall's factory is located, are suffering from prolonged outages. The main reason why electricity is in such short supply is a shortage of coal.

India is the world's second-largest producer and consumer of coal. The fossil fuel keeps the country's lights on: three-quarters of the electricity produced uses coal. India sits atop the world's third-highest reserves of coal and boasts of the world's largest coal mining company but per person consumption is still modest.

Why India can't live without coal

India imports a little under a quarter of its consumption: much of it is coking coal which is used in blast furnaces for making steel and is not available domestically. Yet there are perpetual shortages.

Last October, India teetered on the brink of a power crisis when stocks at more than half of the country's 135 coal-fired plants ran critically low, or below 25% of normal levels. Now coal stocks are said to be critically low in 108 of its 173 power plants. The war in Ukraine means global prices of coal and natural gas have soared, making imports unaffordable.

"This crisis is worse than what it was last year as the demand is actually high. A perfect storm has built up now, and there are many reasons to blame," says Rahul Tongia, a senior fellow with the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), a Delhi-based think tank.

IMAGE SOUR

At present everything looks great - dream ticket?
TGA relies on rail transport to export. Risk factor? Workers - strike risk?
I only can see the two above areas of concern aside Russia sanctions being lifted.

Thank you for projections Newboots and HowardW. Holding and seems good enough share to protect against inflation, transitory or not, debt free and very cash generative at moment.

Newboots, my calculations are in rands are are similar, but I also guessing an effective tax rate of 25% tax and deduct the 10% of profit attributable to the employee and community trusts.

Total Revenue (Rands) = 14Mt production/12 x World bank pink sheets South African Coal price ($/ton) x Average USD/ZAR exchange rate for month x 0.82 (18% Thungela discount)
Less Expenses = R890 x monthly production (14Mt production/12)
This gives pre-tax profit.

Final profit = Pre-tax profit *0.72 (100-25% tax) * 0.9 (Thungela share in profits )

So for April it would be
Pre-tax profit : (1 166 667 x 302 x 14.98 x 0.82) - (1 166 667 * 890) = R3 291M
Less tax @ 25% : R -822M
Less trusts share of profit @ 10%: -R247M
After tax profit attributable to Thungela for month: R2 222M

Nice recovery today

I'd be interested to know how others calculate their projected earnings figures here. I assume volumes of 14mt p/a, 15% discount to market rates and FOB costs at $55 (USD). 14mt pa spread equally across the year is circa 1.17mt per month.

So for April's average of $302pt, I would calculate (302*0.85)-55)*1,1666,666 = $233,333.200 (USD) earnings for April.

This excludes Capex (projected R2.6 – 3.1bn pa) and tax, and assumes an equal volume per month. I leave off tax in particular as I understand it's not as straight as deducting 29% - tax is often quite a lot lower with allowances.

Extrapolating my formula, gives me:

$675,000,000 (USD) earnings since 1 Jan 22 (adjusted for approach coal price in that period);
$2,800,000,000 (USD) projected earnings for 1 Jan 22 - 31 Dec 22 (adjusted for earnings to date, and based on current futures).

Anyone do differently?

Once the dividend is paid this stock will rise possible towards 15 by the end of June or early July