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So not too far out ....
So looking at my Estimated figures vs Actual, I'm glad to say I was not too far out, in fact a little conservative in some cases I would say :
Production 33kboepd actual 31kboepd (Lower due to production maintenance)
Cash and Equivalents $117m actual $105m (Large cash payments made during June)
Gross Profit $105m actual $112m (excluding depletion charges)
Ops Profit >$60m actual $65.6m
Profit Before Tax > $65m actual $65m
Post Tax > $65m actual ( $84m excluding depletion charges / $37.5m inc depletion charges)
So, I would like to state again how amazing SQZ results are against a backdrop of integrating such a massive deal as BKR and particularity difficult and challenging spot price trading conditions.
Well done to all at SQZ.
atb
For the long time holders, this has now become a four year plan. One down three to go. So far so good, and it can only get better.
JAdam,
I mentioned in my previous post "We managed to average 40p/therm for Q1 and I estimated that Q2 would average at 30p/therm as it's combined that with a proportion that's hedged, I used ~35p/therm as my working average...."
So actual figures, with average realised prices of 36p per therm of gas, US$62.7 per barrel of oil and £277 per metric tonne of NGLs, I was pretty close with my ~35p/therm.
The upside is, with winter months upon us, therm prices will increase so looking forward to H2 realised prices improving significantly..... ££££ straight onto bottom line.
atb
JAdam,
I really do think my Production/ CoH / GP will not be too far off.
We managed to average 40p/therm for Q1 and I estimated that Q2 would average at 30p/therm as it's combined that with a proportion that's hedged, I used ~35p/therm as my working average.
What I'm trying to get across is that SQZ are a well run company with plenty of running room and our actual results when compared to H1 2018 will show a substantial and significant improvement imo.
Not sure how many would be prepared to sell given the likelihood of another major deal landing soon too, against a backdrop of good H1 results. Although there will always be a degree of 'sell on news', regardless of the news as that is the way these traders operate.
Either way not long to wait ..... 7am tomorrow will answer many questions.
atb
KFP2,
Lovely to know you still have an interest in SQZ ..... Be great to have your experience and input once more, been a very long time, too long
atb
PS LSE still having an issue with being able to post this w/e
KFP2,
Yep, IB still here ..... actually really pleased the way SQZ have grown and matured over the years.
atb
Hi NKOTB Nice to see you’re still in this. ( KungFu Panda.
I'm looking forward to our results next week as they will show an extremely strong improvement upon H1 2018.
My estimates of first 6 months of 2018 vs 2019 would be :
Production BKRE up from c24.2kboepd to >33kboepd (+37%)
Cash and Equivalents up from $21m to $117m (+450%)
Gross Profit up from -$2.7m loss to $105m (+4000%)
Ops Profit up from -$10.9m loss to >$60m
Post Tax up from -$8.4m loss > $65m
Clearly these last few figures could be way out depending upon large variables such as Admin (staff) charges and how we utilise our tax pool, when we pay our BKR transaction costs and any impairment / reversal and write-offs.
Either way, as I mentioned these should give the SP a right Royal kick up the rear and should show the market how undervalued SQZ really are atm, or at the very least, put a floor under our SP.
Just our improvement in Cash and Equivalents should open a few eyes in itself, let alone moving from losses to substantial profits on our gross / ops and post tax figures.
With these results we should see added interest by institutional investors, particularly if dividends are mentioned too.
Hopefully, our results will be enough to move SQZ into new, higher trading range too.
atb
Nice to see a gradual rise into the results for us few stalwarts here that recognise a sleeping dragon. I don't post very often but do regularly review posts whilst deliberating on my next stance. Agree re subjective Sasa and concur we have legs here. Nice to see that NewKOTB and yourself Sasa are overweight here - its been a long year, but my fruit tree's crop once a year. Keep the faith as I only see good things in play