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PS, it is fully understandable that trellis would be cautious given the long history regarding the previous board etc. I just can’t see this failing now given that the t5 has substantial reserves and proper revenue generation on tap .There is a big difference between this position and wishful thinking that it might have this potential. Nothing will give this company the industry legitimacy and respect like the gas beginning to flow . In one of the interviews the board acknowledged the fact that it was important that they raise the sp in future as this would make it easier and cheaper to borrow money In order to invest in ever more expansive projects. My only disappointment is that the share price is slipping back which seems to not reflect the positive news of the last fortnight but saying that is this really important in view of where we might be in a year or two?
trellis: "Small steps being made but NOTHING signed except for HOTs ( which are not binding) and, despite what people write on here, no agreement on Bond or financing for Micro LNG. plus ca change."
Sharetrader123: "Once the gas flows things rapidly transform and surely the only threat to arriving at that point is the bond issue or not securing the correct funding ?"
You are both saying the same thing, apart from the subjective assessment of risk which each investor must do for themselves. Sharetrader is right to be enthusiastic given the potential. Trellis is right to be cautious given the history.
Trellis I can see that long term shareholders might feel that progress to delivery of gas has been overstated in the past and they must be totally frustrated at the massive eroding of their investments over a long period of time and have endured a long and painful journey to get to this point. Even recent investors such as myself are trapped at present due to buying in at the recent highs but obviously not as much as some of the longer term investors. Even the most sceptical of investors must realise that finally all the cards are lining up nicely at last. Once the gas flows things rapidly transform and surely the only threat to arriving at that point is the bond issue or not securing the correct funding ?
Hi Trellis,
I always read your posts which I can never really disagree with in any way. Timelines and past promises have not been met, or forgotten that's for sure. Treat investing here (like all investing) is to be treated with caution I guess. I am admittedly trying to gauge the full extent of your sarcasm with only words to go on isn't always easy but I guess I am a glass half full type retainer of shares here despite the past management and promises. IMO - The asset(s) still holds significantly more value than 3p to me and this means an investment opportunity for newcomers. It sadly doesn't and probably wont ever re-coup losses for some though and I am mindful and respectful of that too.
"in a hitch" = "without a hitch" :-(
I also believe that a share price in the thirties is possible. We have a valuation of 8.5p per share if SOU retains 50% of Tendrara and gas extraction gets underway in a hitch. We could be at 17p if by some miracle SOU gets debt financing and retains its 47%. So to get to the low thirties -- twice the value of the current asset -- all we need is for a bunch of idiots who don't know how to value the company to get into a buying frenzy. I'll be happy to make a packet, just as someone else did when I was that idiot.
Or we could discover a lot of oil. But I don't see that happening until the middle part of the decade.
Bring on those long overdue and new RNS's...…..
A year will make such a huge difference here (for those long term holders that don't die of boredom prior that is).
We have A 25 year production concession.
10 years tax free
Indeep I do genuinely believe that the thirties is possible. Gas flowing and a local market to sell it with 10 year contracts will give this company some legitimacy in the industry. It is even possible that the share price could push even higher but this would be dependant on how the company uses this money to fund further development. I agree that the share price might even drop or stabilise but the real push will come next year and beyond so it’s just a case of sitting it out but I think the company is more likely to succeed than fail given the present situation.
30s..... i just cant see it, low teens perhaps. remember we were mugged before so i just cant see the high rises but hey...... i'm all for it haha. see what this week brings, i want to see 3p weeks end, stability is the key..... it wouldn't surprise me if this slipped further and back down to 2p.... lets hope not
I know it’s early stages right now but if they start flowing gas then expecting the sp to get back into the thirties is not impossible. They will have signed long term 10 year deals guaranteeing a stable price plus all the gas produced has a ready made local market crying out for energy. As long as nothing derails the ability to get to the gas flowing stage then once reached things will look completely different and the sp will no doubt reflect that.
I have to disagree slightly..... i think if the share price has had a stable rise and the company is looking strong and moving into an exploration phase then i'm prepared to have a word with myself and stick around after 8.5p, assuming it will ever get there. Would like to see it in the 30's like when awaiting news on TE10... I can dream......
Everyone has their own opinion.
I tend to agree that many LTH will exit when they break even or thereabouts. But let’s face it a lot will have averages above 10p.
ericnat17: "So an awful lot in the next 2 years and plenty of opportunity for the SP to follow the story".
SoundasaPound1: "I am hoping to trigger a relatively early exit strategy here".
I'm intrigued how people seem unable to join the dots here. A large number of people holding SOU are in the same position as described by SoundasaPound1. They have more stock than they wanted and are desperate to exit at the first chance to recoup their substantial losses. With all this revulsion for the share, who do you think is going to buy it? It seems to me we all hoping for a greater pack of fools than the current shareholders.
In that scenario the only thing that is going to increase the share price is an increase in the company's underlying assets. What will *not* increase it is miscellaneous "news flow". That only worked in the era of rank speculation and irrational exuberance. The majority of people buying now are those mercilessly trading the rises and dips. Yet, almost incomprehensibly, we've even seen some LTHs increase their holding while the price was going *up* in the recent rally. The share that revulsed them somehow seemed more valuable because others were trading the sheeeiittt out of it. Those people have increased their losses!
I don't expect any sustained improvement in this share until there is gas coming out of the ground.
Indeep,
You have described huge parallels with my own scenario regarding averaging down and exit prices. My holding is far larger than I ever really intended for at the start so I am hoping to trigger a relatively early exit strategy here. I do really think that there is more scope way beyond your 8.5p exit. Regardless I think it will come good here and I am renewed with confidence in the management........ a slow burn upwards in SP over forthcoming months would be better for long term investor confidence In my view.
Good luck with your holding and to all other investors here.
I would think that in the scheme of things we do not really have that long to wait. We have news flow that includes.
Pipeline GSA
Sidi Extension
Sidi Farmout
Confirm HOT and sign deal.
Get to first LNG gas
That’s all within the next 12-18mths
I would then expect to see accelerating the pipeline and infrastructure
More exploration in low risk locations
Exploration in annoul
Sidi seismic and a tagi drill.
That’s in the following 12 months.
So an awful lot in the next 2 years and plenty of opportunity for the SP to follow the story. That’s without the very real possibility that we are sold, the marketing process is still ongoing.
A long wait here again maybe , but I’m staying for what I came for and that was exploration.
We may have some negativity here (can see why ) but just look at the possibilities here long term , yes it’s hard especially being here from the big Gerry day’s I know . I do feel this team may just pull it off ... slowly slowly catchy monkey !!! Gla
I totally agree. Although only new to this share, I can clearly see the potential for sure. Patience is the key here as there will be a stream of positive announcements such as bond, gas sales agreements , LNG tender, build and operation and eventually cash flow . The only thing we do not know for sure is what the eventual share price will be but hopefully exiting times ahead .
I believe the same, this company will look totally different in 6 months time.... It'll have a plan which is being implemented and not just talked about..... I can wait but the averaging down is a huge gamble for me and i suspect others. I believed fortune favoured the brave when i got into this a few years back now i think you're right fortune favours the patient. I like the slow burn on the share price.... keeps investors locked in for longer and brings stability. I have 2 get out prices, 6p and 8.5p...... but after all this i want a bloody profit, not a bloody nose!! fingers crossed.... i still think the team came across great for those that are balls deep :D
Sit tight and don’t worry Indeep.
IMO - fortune favours the very very patient (not brave - in this case) IMO Good news Is coming here and will be with the long suffering Sound shareholders soon. There we go, I’ve decided to stick my head on the chopping board...
TBH having just watched the vid and feeling positive I'm really disappointed with the Friday end of play SP..... However i do want a slow burn as i need to get more into next years ISA :)
Yes it`s just you.