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Can you take your personal bunfight elsewhere please.
STD123, by bailing out five months ago I missed out on a quarter of a penny which would have only left me down "only" 90%. Woohoo! Yet YOU'RE the donkey who had a chance to get out at par, but waited for the share price to halve. Profits just around the corner? Is that as reliable as the doubling in three months that you predicted three months ago? LOL.
PS pipe down. I don't think anyone is going to take notice of a Muppet who has already sold out for 1.2 p and incurred a 92% £600,000 loss. At least myself and a few others still have a chance of making a profit which as we all know is just around the corner.
STD123, the only thing you're contributing to the debate is shameless ramping. Along with your fellow travellers who announce "multibaggers coming" without offering the slightest bit of evidence or justification.
Regarding the Moroccan government investing in the pipeline, why would any government give away exploration permits for next to nothing and then end up funding the infrastructure themselves. The whole point is that the don't have to take those financial risks.
And as for your advice that "it would be idiotic to sell now if there was a chance this could get back to double figures" ... more complete nonsense. What would be idiotic is to leave your money where it is making nothing instead of seeking better opportunities. Your advice is based on pure FOMO. If one takes the view (as I do) that SOU is going nowhere for the next couple of years, even if it eventually comes good, parking your cash there is the *most* idiotic thing.
Very mature utility. Everyone else is contributing to debate and you are just being childish.
Thats to you sharetrader
Would be most strange to have one arm of the Moroccan Government chasing us for a huge tax bill while another arm offers to fund a pipeline - it's unlikely in my opinion but I've been wrong about just about everything, so that could be a good omen!
Woundlick. You could be onto something with the Moroccan government showing interest, as Oil and Gas Investers Fund have their offices based in Morocco.
Woundlick there is every possibility the morrocan govt might make an investment in the pipeline. There is also a possibility that one of the major producers might also be tempted if they hit a big gas field in the area. Like I stated earlier this pipeline ties into the pipeline that goes into the European grid and has passed all the planning and environmental permissions so it's just a funding issue now. I'm quite sure other producers could tee in along its 120 klm length and it is the only pipeline in the area that gives access to the lucrative European markets. Once the 120klm line is installed then it would make it easier to extend it if the demand justified it. There is also a future possibility that we may find more gas due to us having a large asset so there could be future upside there also. With your average so low I would be reasonably confident of fully recouping my losses and possibly making some profit but how long that would take is pure guesswork. What I do know is selling up now would be madness in my opinion.
ST - I've considered selling at various times and cutting my losses, but as it stands I may as well hold for the time being. If the share price increased to 6p+ then I'd be very tempted to sell and get over 50% of my money back. Only need 11p to break even again - I'd be selling for sure at that point, unlikely as it is that we'll ever get there in my opinion.
Just giving some more thought to the pipeline - as we're talking about Morocco's energy independence and security, is there any chance the Moroccan government would be willing to fund (or at least provide a heafty contribution towards) the $180m cost?
JONNY. Work will begin at the Anoual acreage before long, with a very real chance of hitting multi TCFs of gas. Graham recently said they wanted to start work there at the back end of this year but it had to be put back through covid. This will get your money back plus a lot more.
Woundlick you asked for opinions so the big question is are you bailing out or are you staying to hopefully claw back some of your losses?
Jonnyfunk I'm not suggesting you will ever get anywhere near your 60p average back however it would be idiotic to sell now if there was a chance this could get back to double figures. Especially as Graham has managed to steady the ship.
Agreed, Gassy. It's all about Phase 2. Indeed, Graham's roadmap is the only show in town. It's just he hasn't been very good at sticking to schedule so far. With Phase 1 FID only projected for end of this year, I find it incredibly hard to imagine Phase 2 FID before 2023, especially with the hints that Graham has dropped and the record of progress so far. I think genuine value, should it eventually arrive, is several years away.
ST - thanks for a reasonable post. A welcome change to your tiresome quarrel with ST and stating that Sounds value is less then zero. I had a look again at SP angel’s 9p valuation. It is all about a judgment of how likely Ph2 is. The point of the Ph1 deal is that it makes a Ph2 deal more likely to happen. The 9p also excludes (rightly so at this stage) exploration upside.
WoundLick: "ps2 - Do you think there is ANY chance the situation can be salvaged from this point? That $180m cost for the pipeline might just prove to be insurmountable."
Most definitely there is a chance. Graham says they are "progressing Phase 2 in parallel with Phase 1". I'd have thought that means they are out scouting for financing. However, Graham made two comments in the last couple of months that were concerning. I will paraphrase because I can't be bothered going back to dig out the precise quotes. In one interview he said that "the traditional institutions are not very interested in fossil fuel investments". In a second he said that: "SOU is progressing the ItalFluid and Afriquia Gaz contracts and is not looking for a farm-in partner". He also intimated that the performance of the wells on the LNG project would make it easier to progress Phase 2... but that hints at no progress until AFTER the LNG is flowing.
So on the one hand they're not able to get funds from a bank, and on the other they don't want funds from a partner who would presumably take a large chunk of equity. What are the other options? A corporate bond? Would a midget like SOU be able to get one away?
Personally I suspect they'd take any option: bank loan, bond, farm-in partner, whatever turns out to be possible. I just don't think any of them are going to come easy -- whoever is dangling the $180m will call the shots. And from Graham's statements I suspect the whole thing is very much still on the starting blocks, with no definite leads.
Could Graham turn it all around, get financing, and eventually go drilling again in Tendara? Absolutely he could. But even SOU's hired valuers think that fresh drilling is so far in the future as to be not worth thinking about for now. So it's all about Phase 2. Will it happen? I honestly haven't the first clue. I'll hazard a guess that the financing won't be easy and it won't come soon, i.e. definitely not in 2021, maybe in 2022/3? But just based on reading between the lines of Graham's comments it's hard to imagine a Phase 2 FID before 2023. Pipeline by 2024? More drilling by 2025? Who knows.
Then there's the question of what SOU will be worth at the end of it all. SP Angel had 6.5p, upped to 9p after regaining the SLB share. There's reason to suspect that's a conservative valuation. But it *is* premised on SOU retaining 75% equity which means financing the pipeline from debt, not equity.
In short: all doable, but not easily.
STD123: "The fact some weeks later the outlook dramatically improved and you didn't see it coming makes a mockery of your ability to predict anything going on behind the scenes."
Yes, the outlook "dramatically improved" from imminent insolvency to being worth just a bit LESS THAN ZERO. I've never pretended to be able to predict anything. I just remind idiots like you of the company's own statements. Let's also recall that after the spike of that "dramatically improved" situation, YOU predicted the share price would double again in three months. Instead it halved. Great call, you shameless ramping troll.
Share, do you have any pearls of wisdom for us unlucky f*****s with a 60p average please??
Any amount of *****ing and forecasting isn’t bringing my money back fella.
If it ever gets to that price again, my nieces and nephews will benefit because I will be dead.
Good luck to everyone I think would be the nicest words people could post. Best wishes.
PS it's no good spouting facts and figures anymore. You didn't think sound had a future and bailed out. The fact some weeks later the outlook dramatically improved and you didn't see it coming makes a mockery of your ability to predict anything going on behind the scenes. You are as clueless as the next man but your paper losses are now real. Just leave those invested to enjoy the journey to profitability even if it does drive nails into you.
Wound, PS sold out at lower prices than now and made a 92% and 600,000 loss. It is doubtful if anyone would now reinvest at higher prices.
The answer here is simple you either sell out prematurely for no good reason or have some faith in Graham delivering some shareholder value. The choice is yours but if you stay in there is always the possibility of recouping some losses but if you bail out then there is zero chance.
Graham was handed an unenviable set of tasks and he and the team are certainly bringing in results, slowly but surely. He is a far more open character and certainly doesn`t bare any resemblance to the car salesman, which in itself is a confidence builder. Long may his efforts continue in the right direction. GLA
ps2 - Do you think there is ANY chance the situation can be salvaged from this point? That $180m cost for the pipeline might just prove to be insurmountable. Even if Sound were to bring a partner on board who'd be willing to fund that endeavor, we're talking about a partner who need to be willing to stump up a huge sum of money, presumably for a share of the licence which would need to be a majority, more than Schlum recently surrendered, but where would that leave us?
What would need to happen for you to consider reinvesting? I think your 'worst case scenario' will be pretty similar to my own, but I'd be interested to hear your 'best case scenario' (if you have one!)
Is the only likely solution to get a partner on board to stump up a considerable portion of the $180m, but secure another sizable loan which would be serviced by the gas sales? You'd think deep-pocketed Schlum would have been the ideal partners for that, but clearly they intend to focus elsewhere. I'd like to hear GL's opinions on the next conference call regarding our options for monetising Sound beyond a break-even operation.
STD123, you are a delusional troll. Take a look at the map of the pipeline route: https://www.soundenergyplc.com/media/1581/morocco-map.jpg
It passes through the Tendara area and a sliver of Anoual. What other producers in the area are you rambling about? The pipeline is of value only to SOU. They will need to raise $180m to build it. LNG revenue will go 100% on paying down debt for the next decade and more. It has no bearing on a "lower rate" on borrowed pipeline funds. Lower than what? Are you implying there's a current rate? If things are looking better than a year ago, how come your investment from then is down 60%? Could it be because SOU themselves have acknowledged that without the pipeline they are worth ZERO. And even to get to ZERO they had to give away 10% of the company to AG and another 10% to the bondholders. Whatever you're smokin' you should probably consider quitting and spending the money saved on a basic arithmetic course.
Wound,Graham has a plan. The ducks are lining up one by one as promised, not overnight but slowly but surely. Once income starts to flow in from the LNG take or pay contract and we actually start making money then any phase 2 funding for the pipeline could be secured at a lower rate or more attractive for a partnership deal. Do not underestimate the worth of the pipeline as it's the only one in the area with all the permissions granted and because it links into the line feeding the European gas grid then it will be highly desirable for other producers in the region in order to get top dollar for their gas. I don't know the specifics whether the pipeline can be leased out or whether sound are at liberty to just charge transportation costs for those wishing to ship their gas but this has huge earning potential. There are some on here that did not think Graham could get the bondholder agreement done yet he did. Some then did not think the LNG deal would ever be secured and it has. I'm not looking to be here in 10 years time and I'm only interested in making a little profit on my 3p average which I'm almost certain I will. One thing is for certain, the future looks a lot brighter than it did compared to this time last year.