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Let's hope that we have a positive outcome this weekend with the elections in Ecuador.
Feels like this is gonna blow soon đđ¸đ¤
Newcrest's interests in Lundin as well as the Gold credit deal on Mirador etc along with SOLG holding and other licence blocks they hold means any exit from Ecuador by Newmont will likely involve Lundin and Codelco and chinese partners first. That's the usual platform for exits. In fact many partner deals entitle the partners to first dibs should one want to exit. So I suspect if Newmont decide to leave Ecuador... a large chunk of interest will go to 'incountry' partners. Also smoother for Gov sign off etc. SOLG is slightly outside the Codelco / Lundin players but they are all well aware of what SOLG have. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Codelco took on the 10%. That said... I think they would want a conclusion to the Llurimagua Mining Project first. Incidentally, did anyone else hear that ENAMI was looking to sell their stake in Llurimagua?
Should Llurimagua go ahead (needs to sort new environmental consultations etc) and should Alpala go ahead... Ecuador could have 2 mega Tier1 mines heading for production in next 3 to 5 years or sooner. That seriously puts them on the mining map and would please the IMF a great deal!
Things are changing and the super majors know it... if a saudi or uae outfit buy into a tier1 copper/gold asset the super majors games of squeezing the little guy are over. Even now the chinese are taking on mines right under their noses and they are too big and slow to react.. too focused on their filters.
The name you here these days when dealing with copper projects are chinese, japanese... and soon to be Saudi or UAE.
The entire sector is due a shake up in same way US shale changed the OPEC cartel's ability to dictate oil prices.
SOLG will most likely go to a Brazilian firm, Chile firm, japanese firm... chinese firm or possibly a canadian firm. But the super majors seem more interested in the lower tier consolidation pickings.. like the Newcrests etc.. spend $15bln or $20bln and get the instant production and ops rather than spend $10bln+ on new mines.
This is likley to lead to a shortage of metals in the future but that suits them to as prices then spike. Copper is the one metal that they all know is going to be in high demand. They all want it. So SOLG will do just fine.
Lindy, over the past few weeks this has been discussed at some length.
The situation is, we don't have a clue and there have been indications suggesting both a sale and retention. Hopefully, Caldwell got a steer when he met Newmont at Denver.
Morning all. Am interested in any of your thoughts of how likely Newmont will keep the stake in Solgold. Many thanks.
TI, good post. The only quibble is that we are not being passive at the moment and are trying to cover all options in a proactive manner. Surely that's what the SR is all about?
TI - when you say that "NM could have sold in 2017 but got greedy", to which offer are you referring?
The BHP proposal was a poor one for anyone who was happy to roll the dice which is something you simply have to do with assets of the scale of Cascabel.
NM was completely correct to rebuff that and go with the Newcrest money. The SP highs after the offer and the size (and quality) of the asset are two pointers to this.
It's all too easy to blame NM. We as investors have the benefit of being able to move freely in the market whenever we want. He doesn't.
Morning Shipright you are very welcome
Pinot
:0)
Thanks Pinot
Morning all
https://imarcglobal.com/speakers/liam-twigger
Pinot
:0)
Much appreciated Italian, your investigative work and endeavour is "first class" as partridge would say
Will jump in for a few today me thinks
I know the BB likes to speculate a lot in all directions, which is the point of the BB and also the reason why it gets systematically out of control.
I normally try to stay out of it, however upon reading this article I am reminded of one of the basic concepts about the lifecycle of mining companies (from exploration to major): destinies are determined from the top down.
Meaning that when majors start to move with their M&A, eventually the ripples reach the juniors and then the exploration companies. We are at the receiving end of that wave, no point in kidding ourselves.
So my speculation is that despite all the statements and the chest thumping over the years and the different CEOs, our destiny really depends on the macro and on our own we have not been able to move our own dial if not in the wrong direction. In 2017 we could have sold but NM got greedy and believed his own bs. The macro has been bad for our sector for at least 2 years, the majors have only just restarted the M&A cycle, and as you can read from the article we are just one of the many moving parts in the majors' portfolios. We may be the most desirable upcoming acquisition and equally the last company they want to consider buying, we just don't know and we just cannot do enough to change that in our favour.
What we can do is make our money go farther to minimize dilution until the project is advanced enough with government agreements and permits, but then it's just a highly defensive move and a waiting game as we can only sell when someone shows up to buy, and that wave might take some time to arrive for us.
In any case, I have a call with Scott next week, I will try and get his thoughts on this.
Adikt. so its gone from there is certainly something going on in the background. to .LETS HOPE WEVE HES GOT A BUYER
Thanks for the article.
Sangha said he was waiting for the outcome of the New rest deal.
TI, as I said the other day, let's hope SC has got a potential buyer for the stake already lined-up.
Clearly it would be very difficult and costly if they attempt to sell in the market, and I'm sure they aren't that stupid. In the meantime the future of their holding will cast a degree of uncertainty, both positive and negative, over our share.
ARTICLE, PART 3
âWhen you talk about the true value of the business, the true value of the business is what the market is willing to pay.ââ
Mr Tomsett said he was convinced the share price would have been trading well below its current levels in the absence of the Newmont offer.
Mr Tomsett said shareholders would also retain their exposure to gold and a lesser extent copper.
Newcrest shareholders will receive 0.4 Newmont securities for each of their shares, plus a $US1.10 per share special dividend.
Australian shareholders will receive chess depository interest (CDIs) in Newmont which will continue to be traded on the ASX.
The votes cast at the scheme meeting on Friday were overwhelmingly in favour, with 92.63 per cent of votes cast supporting the deal going through
Newmont CDIs are expected to start trading on the ASX on October 27.
Newcrest shares were trading at $26.08 on Friday, up 28c.
ARTICLE, PART 2
"The other element is, whenever thereâs a merger, naturally, they look at âdoes everything fit within the new, new merged entity?â
Mr Andrawes said most of Newcrestâs Australian assets were probably a good fit for Newmont.
"But thereâll be some of the smaller things like some of the exploration areas which are probably not of interest
âAlso Newcrest has some quite significant investment, large stakes in smaller companies like Lundin and SolGold.
âTheyâre probably one of the most obvious things, probably the first thing to look at are those non strategic investments and some of the exploration areas.ââ
The Havieron JV with Greatland might also fit into this category, Mr Andrawes said.
More broadly in the gold sector Mr Andrawes said there had been consolidation in the Leonora area, âand I think weâre going to see more of thatââ
There have also been rumours in the market for the past couple of months that Telfer would be put up for sale, which could be packaged together with Havieron.
Evolution Mining has already flagged its interest in any assets put on the sale block by Newmont, with founder Jake Klein telling the Australian at its mid-year investor day it would be in the running.
âThe best opportunities do come for us from the majors and obviously (thereâs) a lot of activity in the market at the moment,â he said.
âNewmont has made it clear that they are looking to dispose of some of their non-core assets if they proceed with the new post merger. So that is obviously a place that we would be looking in the future â recognising that it will take them probably until 2024 to make any decisions.â
Mr Tomsett would not comment on Friday about possible asset divestments, given that would be the responsibility of Newmont going forward.
At the meeting held to vote on the deal, he did field a number of queries on the question of whether shareholders were getting their due, with one asking, âWhy do you think itâs OK to sell the company very cheaply?â
âWell, I donât think itâs okay to sell a company very cheaply, and I donât think we are selling it very cheaply,ââ Mr Tomsett said.
On the contrary, the prevailing trend in the sector at the larger end of the scale was for mergers with âjust about always ... zero premium. mergers of equalââ, he said.
âWeâve managed to secure for our shareholders a significant premium, and thatâs not easy to do in this world.ââ
Mr Tomsett said the board had managed to extract a 17 per cent increase against Newmontâs first offer, which was an achievement given the US company was the only bidding party.
âMore than they really wanted to pay, which was a 25 per cent premium in the first place, is an outstanding effort on behalf of our board and our advisors,ââ Mr Tomsett said.
Wildtiger, we have no urgent need of working capital - read the last MD&A.
However, if we end up going down the demented JV route, we will need to raise huge amounts to stand our corner, and of that there will be a significant level of dilutive equity.
ARTICLE, PART 1
The scrip takeover of Newcrest by the worldâs biggest goldminer, now known as Newmont Corporation, is also expected to kick off a wave of deal making in the Western Australian gold sector and further afield, as Newmont pares off assets which donât fit the merged entityâs criteria.
Newcrest was created as Newmontâs Australian subsidiary in 1966, and was then known as Newmont Australia
It merged with BHP Gold in late 1990, creating the nationâs largest pure gold producer, valued at $1.2bn
That deal scuttled a play by Robert Champion de Crespignyâs Poseidon Gold for Newmontâs Australian arm at the time, predating by more than decade the $US1.98bn buyout by the Denver-based Newmont, of Mr Champion de Crespignyâs own Adelaide-based Normandy Mining, signalling its major return to Australian goldfields
Newcrest chairman Peter Tomsett, reflecting on the deal on Friday, said the buyout by a foreign entity was âdifficult on a personal level for a lot of peopleââ, given the hard work which has gone into building company over the past 30 years
We had a mine tour at Cadia and one of the descriptions given was that the whole situation was sad, but not bad,ââ he said
Itâs a sad time for everybody but itâs an opportunity for everybody as well.
That opportunity also extends to the mid-tier gold producers and deal-makers who will be keenly waiting as Newmont runs the ruler over Newcrestâs assets - and even some of its own - and likely decides there are some which do not fit their investment criteria
Newcrestâs major mining operations include the Cadia mine in Western Australia, Papua New Guinea-based open pit operation Lihir, Telfer in WA, the 70 per cent owned Red Chris mine in British Columbia, Canada, and the Brucejack mine, also in BC
Altogether, Newcrestâs assets are expected to produce 2-2.3 million ounces of gold and 120,000-140,000 tonnes of copper this financial year.
But, like most major mining companies, it has plenty of non-core assets. These include a 32 per cent stake in the Toronto-listed Lundin Gold, 10.3 per cent of London-listed SolGold with assets in Australia but also Ecuador and Chile, 19.9 per cent of Azucar Minerals, and 8.9 per cent of ASX-listed Antipa Minerals, among other equity investments.
It also has a 70 per cent stake in the Havieron copper-gold exploration joint venture with Greatland Gold, with that project 45km east of Telfer.
BDO head of global natural resources Sherif Andrawes said on Friday the last big merger, between Barrick Gold - now the worldâs second largest gold miner - and Randgold in late 2018, triggered a âflurryâ of merger and acquisition activity.
Not always just things falling out of the mergers, but also others just following suit. Because if it works for companies of that size, it works for others,ââ Mr Andrawes said.
Dbw. You should of asked me. I read it 7 hours ago.
Just tell me what you want to know.
I will be pleased to tell you.
Must be awful not living in the mining center of the world, and not being able to access the latest news.
Thanks
DBW, you can access it via a link on the GGP page. It's also on NCM's web site.
Can anyone access this article?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/newcrest-shareholders-have-overwhelming-voted-in-favour-of-newmonts-takeover-bid/news-story/04949541774a1897e3907b925e52ff82?amp&nk=c72ebb4e6f141d9cdf16e56dbb0fa7db-1697174948
Kat. I think I've missed the point.
What are you trying to say