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2 cracking footy matches to watch on catchup from today so far...
Unless the sales are balanced on the other side DBW...lightening up in readiness for a takeover battle with more liquid instruments...
RK, I’m guessing you had 3 shredded wheat for breakfast?! Remember, sometimes less is more. Atb fella
Bank of America has a target of 75p with a thought "where there's smoke..."
RK …. Blackrock….A holes …. Looks they they were mopped up though
Up to date trading info...
Blackrock sold 16.5 million recordes 8th Nov and 7 million on 23rd Nov
Konwave transition metals bought 11 million this month
JP Morgan bought 13 million
BNP paribas bought 5 million … first holding.
West Yorkshire pension fund 4 million buy - also new holder.
Bank of America also appears to be a new holder of 1.4 million
Meanwhile Broker targets:
Hannam 85
Canto Fitzgerald 68.21
Peel Hunt 65
Clarksons 38
Liberum 44
Paradigm Capital 103.89
It is entirely possible that no majors are circling, and for various reasons, quite a few will simply not be interested in owning Cascabel. But to suggest that it could be left on the shelf (under current conditions) simply shows you really don't understand the asset at all.
Orphencopper
"Of course I’d take 80p now… I’d take 40p today"
Out of interest Orphencopper, what price do you think NCMand BHP would be willing to sell out for assuming they are not interested in bidding. Let's just assume they are not and they are now aligned with all shareholders in getting best Bang for buck. It's peanuts to BHP and NCM... but there's no way either ones are selling for 40p imho. At that level I highly suspect BHP would offer a better price.
And that's the real debate here... The Chinese have 6%+ foothold now and even if they lost a bid war they are still making double or treble their 6% investment I'm sure.
Not many Tier 1 assets out there that are not already in super majors hands. Cascabel might well be the Chinese's best opportunity for a decade. You really couldn't ask for a better outfit to put up against BHP. The latter are now up against a much deeper pocketed entity than themselves and that's a rare place for BHP to find themselves.
Remember Cascabel is a smelters dream. It's Gold, copper mix plus other precious metals is highly prized. You might take 40p today but I think the players in this game want much more than that.
Industrial Metals down; FTSE100 down; SLOG up 4.2%...
Looks like the market is starting to take notice...
Mathers...it was MITSUI who met the Ecuadorian Minister of Mining...
You still haven't anwsered what they stand to gain from a $30 million investment which represents 0.15% of their total assets...?
On a whim..?
As a pet project...?
Because they believe in the management of Solgold and the opportunity to invest in a $2.7bn NPV mine...?
While both BHP and NCM have twice the stake and could each have a Director on the Board...?
Do the Chinese do anything without very careful research and a clear motive...?
OK Redknight has lost the plot big time.
Just look at what he posted for me to read at 12.32 today.
He has posted a link in 2020 to prove he knows what he is talking about.
He has then posted 4 links saying result of the first link.
One of them is in the year 2021.
Two of them is in the year 2020.
And the last one is in the year 2016.
So, to prove his point he posts a link in 2020, and points to the result in 2016.
Apparently, he is a time traveler as well.
Got anything a bit more recent.
RK, I completely agree with your argument and understand why Jiangxi invested.
Similarly, I can understand why some people have become disillusioned and pessimistic, but in my view they may have lost sight of what we own. I do not agree with Orthern's pessimism about the asset - we have only to look at those who've done their dd and decided to invest. If it was not everything we believe it to be, we wouldn't have raised a penny.
Red,
They bought 6.3% of Solgold because they liked what they heard from the Ecuadorean minister for mining, they must have got the reassurance needed to progress further imo
Atb
So I repeat...why did Jiangxi buy 6.3% of Solgold...?
Doesn't anyone have an opinion or an alternate explanation...?
Thanks Orthern for your constructuve response.
I can assure you my glasses aren't rose tinted, although you might be forgiven for thinking so with 2.3 million shares...
I totally agree "things may not be as great as we were once told they might have been." and am prepared to believe the growing hype being generated by people in the know, including a M&A specialist appointed to advise both SOLG & CGP.
I also believe that, given the undoubted asset we have here and neither BHP nor NCM walking away, plus Jiangxi buying in and Mitsui saying they want a slice of the action, there are two convergent reasons for shelving PFS2 and Porvenir PEA.
First, energy and other costs have risen sharply and the copper price has fallen to BELOW the $3.60 assumption in PFS1.
So I'm certain that PFS2 would have come out with a worse result and that would further undermine the SP...
And there is absolutely no need for PFS2 if we press on for DFS...so why spend the money...?
Or...given that CGP's SP was falling and they would struggle to raise any cash to develop their prospects other than selling SOLG shares at beaten down prices; and...Mather's dream of being a major miner has been quashed (and he aint getting any younger...), they have been persuaded by Sangha that the sum of the parts is greater than the whole, especially when you amalgamate the 85% and the 15%...and that the best way to monetise the assets at anywhere near decent value is to provoke a bidding war.
And I've never said there are majors circling SOLG...
I just think when the 2nd best new copper project and the 9th best new gold project, let alone Porvenir, Helipuerto, Rio, etc receives its first bid, it will trigger a competition (unless its a knockout bid).
There is no denying a looming massive copper shortage and that the majors' existing resources of copper and gold are being run down at an alarming rate with little imminent replenishment on the horizon.
And while RIO tries to make sense out of the mess that Toyu Olgui is, in remote Mongolia, surely such a rich asset in stable Ecuador, with potnetially untold further riches from the Andean Belt, must look incredibly attractive....?
So who will break ranks first...Jiangxi, BHP, Mitsui or someone else who doesn't even have a stake.
After all, BHP didn't before they waded into the much smaller Noront opportunity...
Sorry for the silence Red, I’ve been away…
Of course I’d take 80p now… I’d take 40p today.
My only point is I am not fully convinced there are the multiple majors circling us, willing to enter a bidding war.. I’m starting to doubt our assets now the PFS and PEA have been buried… I don’t buy management’s excuse it’s to save cash… as we had been told they were on schedule and due to be released any day.. so are paid for. It reminds me of the French translation excuse back in the day.
As I’ve said multiple times, I hope your right and I’m wrong…. That way we all make more money.
I will say having an alternate counter view to yours, one that is not rose tinted, does not make me disruptive.. it makes me open to accepting things may not be as great as we were once told they might have been.
Ok how to attribute value to mining discoveries at various stages.
First when we were at PEA, we were about 10% of NPV.
Today at PFS at the lower end we are 30% of NPV and at the higher end 40% of NPV.
So NPV from memory (Please adjust if I am wrong) is 4.3 billion dollars.
So, convert dollars to pounds at 1.21 dollars to the pound is 3,559,838,399.89
Shall we call it 3.5 billion pounds.
Let's do the 30% calculation first:
30% of 3.5 billion pounds is 1.05 billion pounds.
We currently have 2.296 billion shares in issue.
So, 1.05 divided by 2.296 = 45.73 pence a share shall we say 46 pence.
Now the calculation at 40%.
40% of 3.5 billion pounds is 1.4 billion pounds.
So, 1.4 divided by 2.296 = 60.97 pence a share shall we say 61 pence a share.
Let's remember this is for Alpala only and doesn't take into account Porvenir or any other tenement.
So, what happens if we carry on to DFS well the calculation is 50% of NPV.
Do the calculations yourself.
Now these are rough estimates based on various stages of exploration.
It does not include the IRR and I feel that Alpala's last PFS would Favour the reduced build and faster open cut to production.
So, I have given minimum bids, however I don't believe any major holder would sell out to any other major holder at these levels and could gain an advantage in a JV with us on Alpala.
This is what makes the most sense to me, given the current circumstances.
RK, I'm pretty sure it's because they love throwing their money away.
On a serious note, it would be fascinating to know what they've been told so far about our strategy. Obviously they'll know all about the SR, but the key element will be what we 've said to them about their role.
Have we said to them this will provide you with a foot in the door when the exit process begins? Have we given them first right of refusal on an informal basis?
Red it’s a win win for them
Either they bid low and get it or force a bid from BHP and make a tidy profit on a very short term investment
So I repeat...why did Jiangxi buy 6.3% of Solgold...?
Heres the stuff for Quady DBW...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-solgold-m-a-newcrest-idUSKBN2482A6
and the result?
https://www.mining-journal.com/gold-and-silver-news/news/1393110/newcrest%E2%80%99s-biswas-bats-off-solgold-sale-rumours
https://www.miningnews.net/m-a/news/1393093/newcrest-has-no-plans-to-sell-solgold-stake
https://www.miningnews.net/feasibility/news/1404549/newcrest-backing-solgold-strategy
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/zw1hjbgq8to9upukxgf90a2
"If BHP or anyone else makes a play or an attempt then we'll just assess it at the time."
Q, it will simply be your valuation and will have no bearing on what other people think.
This is the problem with attempting to assign a value to companies - ultimately it doesn't depend on spreadsheets...it's what people are prepared to accept.
Full value is what the highest bidder is prepared to pay …. Unfortunately
Sorry addicknt I do know what full value is I will post my calculations.
Q, as ever, your argument hinges on the definition of "full value". The problem being that no one has any idea what that is, including you.
I'm not going to address the 'diverse book' stuff again - we've gone over it far too many times.