SolGold Share Chat (SOLG)

BBG, absolutely - Mather's wishes will not enter the equation.

CD - it will go hostile regardless. BHP won’t care what Mather wants as it will come down to an auction.

I’m expecting a bid to be made public imminently

Excellent post Colonel , pretty much my position. They need to pay full price, or close to it. This is not settled, as if PFS is anywhere near, where me and Phattrader believe it will be, then as you say a deal must be struck as a friendly takeover. I also don't believe they will go hostile, for the reasons you have given. So the question remains, will BHP pay full value by NPV. I don't believe they will, but could they have a bigger share. Yes at the right price.

"should add the obvious point that Franco deal would be signed by now if talks were not going on behind closed doors."
Sorry Coloneldrake but it has been widely reported on this board that the Franco deal is awaiting Due Diligence which has been delayed due to the pandemic. Are you implying that this is not true?

I think that makes me a twister............

Colonel, we've talked about a jv of some with BHP before and it's certainly possible to envisage, were it not for one thing: NM.
He has consistently said he will not allow the company to end up as a minority holder with no control. It should also be said that this route would be highly unattractive for us private investors - as far as shareholder value is concerned, minority stakes rarely reflect true value.
Of course, the other aspect is that BHP will not want a minority partner. Why risk their own money in order to allow shareholders of another company's shareholders to benefit? Btw, I'm not sure I understand your comment about "doing a deal with Citi...". They are only advisors.
Zoros, if by twist you mean sell, you can count me in.

should add the obvious point that Franco deal would be signed by now if talks were not going on behind closed doors.

Holding off on Franco tells me that discussions on possible alternatives are underway and that could involve BHP but equally could involve Barrick, Rio or Chinese but most certainly won't involve NCM lol!

I will twist.
Bird in the hand and all that

I think the only way BHP will be absolutely sure of getting SOLG's assets is to do a deal of some sort with Citi/NM that is inline with what NM wants. That could be a deal whereby BHP farm into Alpala or ironically, the opposite... they farm into the rest of the folio for XX cash and leave SOLG to develop Alpala along with them gaining a significant interest of course. So many ways how BHP can do a deal with NM which allows NM to continue to develop the rest of the folio while BHP fund Alpala (majority of it).

If BHP decide to sit on their hands and just go for hostile bid post October 15th then there's no doubt about it, they place themselves in a very delicate position which is open to counter offers by Rio, Barrick or Chinese.

BHP do not want to go into a bid war / auction and risk losing this massive new regional play with huge upside from other licences as well as that already proven by Alpala. So imho, the Franco deal was the warning shot to BHP to play ball nicely and fairly. And that's what I believe is going on via Citi right now.

Some might say... BHP won't want to partner SOLG as too small. But what if BHP said... we can't pay you top dollar because we don't fully know what you've got. So NM... how about we agree a deal whereby we fund Alpala for xx and we allow you to explore the other licences with xx budget for a period of no more than 2 years. Eg... we do not want to lose permits/exploration licences through time expiry and need to drill time sensitive licence blocks before they get lost. After that 2 years period, we then have a benchmark thriygh Alpala deal to buy out SOLG based on what you've discovered on fair terms. All kind of bindibg agreeements with lock in's can be agreed which will prevent Rio or Barrick getting a look in. So yes, I do think BHP might win through in the end but I don't think it will be in a way most are expecting. BHP have a chance to engage and secure interests in all SOLG's folio. Or... they risk it being taken off them by Barrick or another for a figure that even BHP do not want to match. Ironically, I would prefer the bid war.. but think NM knows he's got another 5 to 6 Alpala's out there and would rather get this done over 2 or 3 years and get the price of 5 Alpala's rather than just one Alpala.

Morning Quady, if Solgold isnt bought out and the price is chugging along in the 20s still, I would expect that I will have exited, bored rigid and very frustrated. On the other hand if the price is in the 40s and nothing has happened I expect I will have exited too!
What would keep me in? A sale of Cascabel and a formula developed for going exploring, proving up and selling.

Zoros of course you arent filtered, though many are! Sorry about the answer but I am afraid I dont understand the question! What is stick and what is twist?!!

I don't often say this but I think we will hit 28p today, the book and trades seem primed for it. a jump today away from 27p, as per the jumps from 23p, 25p, 26p etc. ie 27p shouldn't then be revisited.

No disrespect, but you can't put it as a twist or stick, as per my long post.

I meant ice. Not I've!

Morning Jerry, same question as I put to addicknt, if Solgold not brought out by anyone by DFS next year. Will you come away from the dark side.

Jerry - thanks.
I've - not sure if you're responding to my survey request or have me on filter. If you're out there is it a stick or twist?

I think Nick is correct to say he rules out a JV, as he wants any partner to come to him with an offer above and beyond a normal JV. The more he plans for no JV, the better the JV has to be...if that makes sense...Also if he mentions JV, then he won't get any conditional offers to finance the capex. He has no choice but to say no JV atm. But, this is just my opinion, it doesn't mean no JV.

BHP will buy Cascabel/Solgold this year.

Good morning Iceberg, agree with much of what you said, however I believe JV's are dead in the water. Solgold has ruled them out on many occasions. It is possible, that BHP could get a percentage of Alpala, like FN. I do believe you are correct, this is going to be too big for any one company to own this, once we are on the way to production. If they want to own it, then it's got to be before, the end of 2021. However the question is can Solgold defend a hostile takeover. I believe yes. They could issue more shares at a premium and cut out the main holders, they can bring on more streaming finance. They can widen the shareholder base, we are seeing that happen now. We can take out CGP. Lots of drama left, and after all that, Solgold may still be sold. But not for the price that many are talking about.

Iceberg..you playing?

PMSL!

Zoros it's pointless, you have no idea what you post, and you are constantly putting down Solgold. You still haven't answered my question, what are these extra 2 billion of extra costs, on the Alpala build that no one knows about. You said they were not production costs. Please provide some evidence, or admit yet another wrong post to basically hammer Solgold.

Quady, the general standing with Tier 1 assets is that they are not owned by a single company even one as large as BHP. However their portfolio does have a massive hole to fill particularly from 2025 onwards. The company talks about the copper supply deficit starting mid to late 2020's in there results today. Its a hole that can only be filled by Casabel. If we look at say there Canadian copper JV its won't in production until 2030 at the earliest.
Given the 3-4 year lag time to get a large project to production they need to act in the next 12-18 months, either pay absolute top dollar for a new producing mine/s. or go for a Tier 1, a couple of Tier 2's which could be in production by 2025. Either of these will costs billions, but without the ability to invest in new oil/gas/coal, its really the only boat they can jump on. Hence the new Board member in charge of M&A.

Given this, IMO BHP need the reserves on their books, but also the operatorship so that it can be their project. However if we come back to the Tier 1 mines are generally multi company to allow for stronger geo political clout and spread risk, then it comes down to who does BHP want to own a minority share of Cascabel?
Somebody like Barrick, who can have the GOLD while BHP keeps the Copper?
A small easy partner like SOLG, who can then explore other projects to take to production as a JV?
Newcrest or Newmont etc somebody who will actually help delivery the project?

My opinion is that BHP won't start exploring such relationships until Oct, indeed legally they can't. I think the easiest thing is for them to JV with SOLG, but if SOLG gets too difficult to get another company on board, bypass SOLG and buy them out.
Any potential large streaming will be conditional on the Bankable for obvious reasons, they won't mind too much Franco. But I Fully expect the period between PFS and BFS to be when the conversations come to the surface and to be concluded during this time.
So SOLG yes will take Cascabel to production, but not as the operator as a minority JV partner.
Yes SOLG are capable of taking Cascabel to production alone (IMO) but this is unlikely.
Yes somebody might come to the party to crash a BHP love in, SOLG might even want that. There might even be a 3 way split with SOLG, Barrick and BHP.
BTW I don't think anybody wants CGP to be at any party!

Smickster, rednight, Colonel, Jerry, addict?

Quady, copper pot....u playing?