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Boris Johnson anxious about Indian variant. Top news on BBC and Sky websites.
Thin Shins
I agree entirely. Fingers crossed.
Hasn't the Brii product just been promoted to P3.
Spin
"Given the Activ-2 entry criteria are wider, at least for the current P2, the hospitalisation rate may well be lower than for our home trial. "
I agree but this is a hurdle for all the treatments currently going through p2 of ACTIV2. A bonus we have is that we have supporting data on 120 patients from our SG016 home arm so in total they will have data on 340 patients who trialled the drug in a home setting. 220 in A2 and 120 in SG016. Hospitalisation rate will be low as most would have recovered on their own but this is something the brainboxes will factor in surely.
Hoping for progression to p3 with and adapted protocol targeting a more specific cohort such as the breathless .
The increased sample size should help us a bit.
Too right GKB. I have also been posting similar for months.
Prion, on your point about RM's expectation of 30% hospitalisation. That was way out wasn't it? I expected less than 10% and posted such, months ago. Given the Activ-2 entry criteria are wider, at least for the current P2, the hospitalisation rate may well be lower than for our home trial. This may explain why RM ignored Activ-2 in the briefing interview.
Spinnaker
I get the genuine concern today from posters about not being part of the solution to the Pandemic, but I really thnk this is very misguided. We tend to view Winter as the viral dawn, yet today in Thailand and Vietnam where the temps are in the 30's, a new wave is engulfing both countries. Are the surges we are seeing now around the world the last? Of course not. Are all countries going to be vaccinated by 2022? I seriously doubt that, with such conviction I would wager my entire SNG investment on it were it not tied up here. Has the last British wave swept through this country because of rising vaccination rates? I very much doubt that too. As long as borders remain open (BJ will never shut them, never), and poorer countries become the incubators of rampant and ever-changing mutations, the surges will not end. Aside from the continuing dire global picture, we cannot say with any certainty that we will not see overburdened UK hospitals again in 2021, 2022 or even beyond. Nothing is certain. I may be alone but I expect a hike in numbers again her in the UK with the Indian varient over the Summer, and who knows whatever new varient that comes after that, because it will. Winter is light years away and the virus waits for no man. That's why I remain comitted to the longer game here. Each to their own POV, just my 2 cents.
Mike109, I was mulling that over this morning too and I suspect it stems from either a choice by the pharmaco or an instruction by the Regulator to not speak publically about ongoing trials to avoid bias. Ethically that makes sense. I don't know for sure but that's my view. I've searcched for other pharmaco's that are doing similar trials and they are seeming to be batting by the same unwritten rules as we are which is no progress updates other than commencement and results.
Since the drop a couple of weeks ago, I have decided to wait for P3 results and will address at the SP at that point. As my average is £1.51 I don't intend to sell up now for a loss therefore in a strange way it has made the decision for me to stay in until the end of P3. If my average was say £1.00 today I would have probably sold up now and moved on.
I won't be checking the SP as often as I did as nothing really going to happen here for next few months. Good luck all and enjoy the summer.
SAGE are now raising concerns over the India variant and of the alarming increases of Indian variant cases in the UK.
If we start seeing restrictions again, the integrity of the vaccines should be considered partly pointless.
I am watching this stock like a hawk with of buying more because treatments will be needed.
Ive followed AstraZeneca and Brii science on Activ2 and at no point have I seen either company announce how much progress has been made in that trial.
Why would you expect Synairgen to be talking about trial progress?
Glasgow and now Manchester are seeing increasing rates of coronavirus. Even with the vaccine strategy are we seeing a photocopy of last year ???.
Good afternoon all.
Spinnaker. My only frustration is that vaccines got the thumbs up whilst the board of Synairgen have to go through all the red tape to bring their products to the market.
There are some very genuine and sober posters on here paticularly Ghia , Harchris , Matt and Doc most of the time. I am not surprised Doc is frustrated. So am I. There are other posters like Oakleaf who remind me of the politicians on Question Time who trot out the same party line garbage irrespective of the question asked or the truth and call people names. One doesn't know if they actually believe what they say but suspects very strongly that they don't and are just saying it through habit or Pavlovian response.
We are mostly frustrated that SNG has not contributed to help prevent deaths in the UK over the winter. I expected a tie up with a big pharma after July and government assistance and then EUA EUA. RM stated the rate of progress was dramatic and this most certainly was the case between March and July but since then it appears to be back to the normal speed of pharmaceutical development and trials as though there was no pandemic.
Very concerning that RM did not mention Activ-2 in the interview. Also no progress on MAP, not even confirmation that one person has received the treatment, no indication of any product yet available and no offer of donation of product to India. No news on P3 progress other than a delay of three to six months and no news on Long Covid data from the home trial. Before anyone comes back, yes I do realise that an interview with Katy is not the place to give new news.
I suppose given all this and the fact that with present information there is now limited hope of approval in time for use next autumn/winter during the expected fourth wave it should be no surprise that the SP is floundering. What a crying shame.
Spinnaker
The figures given are from 10-30% to Hospitalisation . The latest expectation for HT I noted is RM saying the "any signal from HT is good news" and it was good news better than any other Mab trials Those 10-30 % are not realistic in HT setting imo
Those numbers are most likely a result of the lack of testing early on in the crisis.
There was a much higher infection rate than testing could identify thus the assumed hospitalisation rate was higher.
Subsequently we have tested in higher numbers hence the true hospitalisation rate has decreased.
The statistical modelling needs to be updated ? Apologies for errors in the text in the post technical issues
Thanks Doc
That's what I thought those those expectation around March were for the statistically modelling at that time .
Doc
"RM on the HT "We were expecting 10, 20 maybe 30% of the at risk people we were targeting in that trial to end up in hospital - as it happened hardly anyone ended up in hospital."
Those percentages seem very high and wide ranging even at a targeted group I thought it would be at around 1- 10% when did he quote those figure because it might have depended on the statistical modelling at the time
Thanks
Doc-the ultimate subtle de-ramper. Keep going
Doc,
But what did that support from H amount to. I see no entries in the financial report. Looks like the support was just a slap on the back.
Thanks for clearing that up.
I tend to agree with your points but, despite your analysis, it would be correct for you to now post that RM did not actually confirm that the pursuit of Sng as a Home treatment is over.
The option for at home use is just that, an option which has been shown to be effective, safe and useable. It is far from being over.
Well that's my analysis anyway.
Cluster of cases with Vaccine evasion at Changi Airport in Singapore. Which is currently on our green list.
Which to me highlights that there is a global population injected with varying qualities of vaccines. To eradicate Covid Completely the globe must be vaccinated continuously with a high quality vaccine. This will not happen.
The risk in the UK is that whilst we have been quick to vaccinate, a significant % is the AZN vaccine which has it's limitations. It's no coincidence that the UK government has ordered boosters of Pfizer.
We may have a ticking time bomb on our hands.
P.s do listen to Ghia, one of the smartest peeps of any BB.
Ghia, what news out of Singapore?
Doc = Genuine human being. Oakleaf = 'don't listen to anyone on here they want your shares' @1.75, @1.7, @1.65 @... @£0.99
I suppose I and everyone else is desperately itching for your golden tickets.