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How is the roadmap not realistic? 2022 will be increasing Tunisia production, stabilising Romanian, and investigating 3 Satu Mare sites.
Serinus Energy
SENX
Share Price 7 Day 1 Year
0.01625 -20.7% -22.6%
Third quarter 2021 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations
Third quarter 2021 results:
Revenue: US$9.78m (up 100% from 3Q 2020).
Net income: US$1.50m (up US$2.77m from 3Q 2020).
Profit margin: 15% (up from net loss in 3Q 2020).
Revenue missed analyst estimates by 8.3%.
Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 37%, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the industry in the United Kingdom.
Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 40% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 52% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings.
JA has been woeful and asleep at the wheel at a time when he should have been invigorating the company given the high gas prices. Sacral clearly is a puzzzle they choose to ignore, the lack of clear decisive leadership and a suitable and realistic roadmap is dragging the company down. Poor bod that lacks savvy dynamism.
Meph, thanks for your thoughts on the points I raised, I think you have rather more experience and knowledge here than I. Point taken about the difficulty of single companies hiding bad news in the accounts. As with all companies, the nice to read numbers such as profit are highlighted and broadcast loudly, getting a full interpretation is down to us reading and understanding evey line in the published statements. Takes patience and experience. It would be dishonest of me not to admit that in my prior engineering lifetime I too learnt how to put the most positive spin on whatever data I was presenting. That said, often nothing like as positive as my seniors wanted, and often subject to amendment by those more skilled than myself!
Very good question, but you have to weigh up the past history of the company as well. Total loss attributable has reduced from (13,546) to (992), and with higher prices for oil/gas, though the OmniscientCronies, sorry Omicron, have reduced those somewhat, that figure should reduce further. Also:
Other comprehensive (loss) income to be classified to profit and
loss in subsequent periods:
Foreign currency translation adjustment 1,828.
Subsequent as I understand it, means periods following the period of accounts, so are future costs which are being booked now, just prudent accounting. Given the company was debt ridden when the new management took over, and has some legacy costs to clear, this will take time. Delays in applying compression to the wells, has cost this company but are now being fitted, though somewhat more slowly than desired, due to the worldwide shipping, Covid, and other effects from this latest pandemic, these are also factors which need to be included. Overall this company like a lot of smaller companies have wildly oscillating working capital, which should improve as the cash flow improves due to higher prices. I have worked for a lot of companies that sometimes fly by the seat of their pants, but with skilful management it is achievable.
This is down because of the long wait for action, and the potential with omicron for the wait to be longer.
What it needs now is huge bod buying. If they are thinking of buying a modest amount I wouldn't bother, but at this price the value for next year is immense, so long as there truly are no skeletons in closets as ALLnothing mentioned.
Very few things need to go right now for people to triple their money or more. But I think only significant bod buying would convince people to buy in and wait that long at this stage.
Why would they have a placing now? Makes no sense. They would literally lose all credibility given they did a presentation yesterday with no hint of a need for a placing.
This has gone from a no brainer to wtf. There must be a skeleton in the cupboard that’s probably going to come out or we’re just very unfortunate at the moment. Hope it’s the latter but seriously testing my patience.
It seems to me it has to be something like a placing. Or possibly bad news regarding the shares owned by Romanian govt? Who knows? But I certainly called this wrong from the results too. Thought I'd managed to buy at a bargain price after results rns. Lol.
me think a placing coming.
Not huge trading and there are buys in there. However, a series of £7-9K delayed trades. Assuming they are sells, could well be from a single source. Generating demand for the shares to prevent the price dropping is the ongoing job of the BOD. If they decided to buy more at this level as well, I certainly wouldn't object.
Mcap a lowly £19m....Heading for £18m..
Time to lead from the front JA.
These are now lower that your 3.5m purchase in August....
C.
All said and done, this is now in free fall. The markets are not great in general so hope for a uplift before the end of the year. Would gladly take 3p but can’t see 100% rise for a while. The sentiment is at a all time low so all we have is hope for the short term.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/europe/exploration-production-europe/368754/europe-gas-serinus-prices/
Is JA singing on the far side of the Moon... 'Too high, too far, too soon....
EBRD shares being flushed through ???
Watching the late trades.
C.
:Schomosport
The increased deficit in working Capital, i.e. current assets versus current liabilities probably doesn't help, and the accounts payable figure is certainly higher than the amount of free cash of $6.4. So they are not exactly awash with cash to splash, though with strong prices, they should easily be able to rectify the position. Also they still have liabilities relating to Brunei to pay of $6m, which given they don't earn any revenue or profit from it, is another drag on progress. As for hiding something, extremely difficult to hide something in a single companies accounts, usually done with a string of inter related companies. Auditors should be able to pick up on unusual activity in a company that operates in the same fields, year in and year, and doesn't buy and sell assets frequently. No guarantees I am right though. Just my opinion, and that is never worth much. But hope it helps.
Thanks for inputs. Want this to come good and given the prospects I think it should else I would be out. Guess I need to brush up un my understanding of financial reporting so I can make my own mind up on whether the reported figures are a true reflection of the overall position or are hiding something.
SENX is debt free, we've had this debt vs liabilities argument a few times before, debt is normally a loan which has to be paid back, liabilities are normally expenditures in the future such as decommissioning wells, etc.
Although I'm hacked off with the sp drop in the short term, the fact that the revenue for the nine months ending 30 September 2021 was $25.7M (an increase of $7.5M in a year) and the cash balance is $6.4M means it's a great opportunity to multibag from this level long term.
Best to just switch off for six months and watch the income roll in with the high gas price plus production could double in 2022.
From the official RNS: "The Company is debt-free and has adequate resources available to deploy capital into both operating segments to deliver growth and shareholder returns".
My simplistic take - liabilities are not the same as debts, and not all liabilities are expected to necessarily to come into play short-term, or possibly ever.
And "cash balance as at 30 September 2021 was $6.4 million".
on profitability i would say that it is appropriate to strip out fx fluctuations. Our job as investors is to be forward looking, fx movements are impossible to predict and as such i assume that the future net effects will even out over the duration of an investment or at least an investment career.
Also they are selling gas at a much higher price in the current quarter than the previous 3. So assuming neutral fx they are definitely profitable in the current quarter even if they weren't quite in the last 3.
Well down on this holding and disappointed with the share price response. However from the published RNS:
On profitability:
Gross profit (loss) 4,411
Foreign currency translation adjustment (1,828)
Total comprehensive loss for the period attributable to equity owners of the parent (992)
So how the heck are we profitable? Maybe I don't understand a balance sheet?
On debt free:
(US$ 000s)
Working Capital
30 September 2021
Current assets 13,752
Current liabilities (21,851)
Working Capital deficit (8,099)
So how the heck are we debt free? 8M USD in the hole on liquidation. Maybe I don't understand a balance sheet?
No joy in this, 5 figure sum under, please can anyone explain the way out of this situation and what I am misunderstanding? Is it just the way things are accounted for?