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Hi
I'm new to the Shell board but post a bit (or more) on the Seeing Machines board. I keep reading that Shell has done a great deal with SEE, getting a large discount and for SEE it's not really a good deal.
At least that's what you'd believe by reading a few posters posts.
Let's put this in perspective -
1. SEE as per Fleet is the market leader, set up the market and technically is in a league of its own, ie is in a market of its own.
2. Shell has a number of missions, one of which is safety. For this mission, SEE is a perfect fit.
3. This is a direct contract, unlike the one and only Mix contract with Chevron. As such, and I agree with Terry's earlier figures, SEE could discount but this would still leave its profit mainly intact and as competition is limited there is no need to discount heavily.
Not only did SEE set up the market it has limited competition for now. So in effect, profit is fairly secure.
Brockwl - I’m not sure auto will be A$10m this year.
The half year came in under forecast (A$3m v A$3.6m) - with fleet outperforming (A$15m v A$13.5m).
With GM no longer offering Supercruise on a number of vehicles, I suspect we’ll see the same pattern for the full year.
I do think Fleet will continue to build momentum and will hopefully surprise in FY2022. We might get a nod to this in the Q1 update at year end.
Double whammy needed - organic growth to come through along with a few oem wins
Brock, "never mentioned by the company" that's not factual. You mean you have never heard it.
For example it was mentioned at an event attended by analysts and shareholders in London years ago, and regulation in Europe requires it in a few years time.
As for a "shareholder" expecting the sp not to rise for years, then why be invested?
MrBB,
There has been no mention of fleet being delivered via OEM, to my knowledge. That has always been wishful thinking on the part of some posters on here. I understand why people assume that given the regulations which will become compulsory over time. However it's never been mentioned as a possibility by the company.
Until I see something winch suggests this might happen, I'd assume that it must be some years away.
Whilst we may improve on the 20% for fleet with Shell. I'd guess the shell deal was done at quite a deep did discount. So great cudos, but no where as profitable as other fleet.
I think we need to factor in how any big deal related to what ever part of the business with some cash upfront would do. We need to also think about the current risk percentage weighting that in my view is ultra conservative. Lower that a few percent and then that should give a different set of figures as pointed out by safestocks.
I am all for realistic & pragmatic ,as I would expect to be the case for most of us & particularly we long termers with conviction .However I believe that Fleet retrofit could grow by more than 20%pa following the Eroad & Shell deals alone ,apart from any new deals announced -as long as we have the infrastructure in place to fulfil our orders by having a solid network of installers .J have said many times that I believe there is scope for a transformational change in Fleet prospects once we have signed our first deal with an OEM (either via a T1 ) which would rapidly increase our I stalked base by multiples of 40/50k with massive additional potential from our remote monitoring which could be added on over the airways with no need for installation engineers .
Hopefully an exciting 2 weeks ahead of results & beyond
Love the realistic view.
All I’m looking for is 15% a year from now until 2024/25, our expectations are waaay too high due to the information we have been given, 30 models by next year, massive RFQs, but sadly no RNSs to back these statements up. It will come, no doubt, but no 40p for Christmas this year.
I think i had the one of the lowest estimates for year end of 15p and can’t see us hitting that even.
I hope we do though
Brock - I’m not an accountant but you make very fair points. Given the long-standing discussion over pipelines I may well have overestimated what drops into 2022 especially as you rightly point out the low base. They have not disclosed FY21 Auto but it can’t be any more than AS$15m given the total revenues last year were only 7m up on prior year. So yes we need to be patient for another few years and hope our rerate comes by virtue of announced contracts and positive market sentiment.
Depends how forward looking and believing the market is.
At A70m, which is £35m and still touch and go if we have reached break even. It may well think £350m market capitalisation is fully priced.
So we could still be at 10p. However if what we believe will happen happens from there then it must rerate.
No idea how the market Will play this next year, but happy to wait for 2023 when it should really start to fly.
That should help double the sp in a year though
Soulboy,
You can't straight line that 250m. It's more likely to be very back end weighted.
So for 310m would be 10m in year 1, 20m year 2, 40m, 80m, 160m in year 5.
We've already been told that 21 revenue will be 47m.
Of that we can assume that 35m is fleet/aftermarket.
So let's assume that auto is 10m, and 2m for other stuff.
Let's also accept that as stated we can expect auto to double year on year.
Fleet grows 20% again.
That works out for 22 to be:-
Fleet 42m
Auto 20m
Other let's say 3m
That's 65m.
Now that's what we know for sure. Whilst I'd expect them to have under promised a little, most I'd expect is 75m.
Auto doubling every year is great in 2 years time when it is significant, but currently it's from a a low base and needs time.
Also if they do give forecasted figures they will be very conservative, hence unless something big happens don't expect anything above 70m
we'll see.
Glandore - you’re absolutely right that PMG has only committed to doubling OEM revenues each year from 2022 but by my calculations it’s generally been accepted that our pipeline of contracted new business BEFORE Qualcomm et al was in the region of AS250m - so just straight lining that number should give us close to AS50m booked sales per year over 5 years plus growth in Guardian by another 25% would see us move from AS$48m to between 90-100m.
So organic growth agreed relatively small but new business should in theory get us close to doubling sales FY22. If that 250m is incorrect or only a negligible part of it drops into the year then all bets off.
This was the business update we got last year in respect of FY21 and Q1:
“I am pleased that our solid progress in FY2020 has continued into the first quarter of FY2021, with both revenue and cash ahead of budget. I am confident that we are on track for a successful year ahead with a strong strategic focus, foundational partnerships and a well established team to deliver." - hopefully they do much better in 2 weeks !!!
LIF
Indeed there was, not to be accused of ramping, I think it was 12-18 months ago, doubling between 2021 - 26 each year, PM was quite emphatic about it. He also said that Auto revenues would be 2/3 that stated, not sure if that was said in conjunction with the above.
There was a proactive interview I seem to think 2020 that had a graph showing revenues double every year from auto.
"....PMG has already committed to double revenues each year from 2022..."
Apologies in advance for the party-pooping. But I believe PMG has committed to "OEM" license revenue doubling each year - not all revenues.
At the moment OEM license revenues are a small part of the annual figure.
Guardian figures are very unlikely to double as the rate of increase is limited by the installation rate - 30% would be a good figure here I believe.
Alway a good chance of revenue from a left-field contract or license now as the requirement for the technology is becoming unstoppable. So perhaps Revenue will double - but not from organic growth imho.
That would be great and should I expect next months to be above 20p
My only hope is that we will, for the very first time, receive a full year forecast of revenue from the company rather than having to wait for Cenkos to cobble together their best estimate. AS70m would only represent a 40% percent increase and I’m honestly hoping we are in the 90-100m range as PMG has already committed to double revenues each year from 2022. Unfortunately and not trying to be negative at best and based on past history I think we will only get a Q1 update which won’t have monetary amounts attached which is rather frustrating because we know there is a tsunami of good news waiting to flow. This is why our SP has languished and I really do hope with this being a transformational year that SEE start to get their act together in the way they engage with investors and start to put out more meaningful estimates with a financial commitment ( achievable and deliverable) that demonstrate the business is finally delivering.
A$70mill is a fair starting point but I would hope that would prove conservative & be increased as FY22 progresses & more contracts win & Auto vehicles produced .Aviation unlikely to make a material contribution -but you never know
Hopefully our SP will run up ahead of Results, as signalled ,but the outlook will be very positive resulting in a continued re rating
Too much to expect a rerate to say 700m market cap then?
That’s what’s been announced but anything from Qualcomm is extra, I would expect that to be mainly snapdragon 4 in 2024 onwards though.
Projections
So we have around 200m to come through from auto between this year through to 2025. So, perhaps this year we won't get a huge dollop of dough but it gradually increases and peaks in 2025 (from current booked business). Therefore perhaps for this year we get around 20m and aftermarket increases to say 50 m ish then if this roughly works out to be 70m ish will the market value us at 10x sales? If so our share price will double quickly. Make sense?