Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
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Whilst my main expectation is for a rise in the SP to come from the Covidity Trial the other main event could drop at anytime.
That's the MODI1 trial submission or it may just bypass and be trial approval.
To know that the MOD1 trial is actually on the move and heading towards the clinic is something I am really waiting for.
I hope our new CEO can end all the speculation soon with something like a Proactive Investors interview.
RNS first and then a full update interview. I'm looking forward to that happening and hope it as soon as possible.
Chester.
Hi Ray,
That is one reason why I put it down as the lesser of the 2 reasons and totally accept what you say about the different types and environment for recruiting of trial patients.
However I do believe that SCLP is held back a little by its track record of seeming to struggle to reach FPI. I quoted the Combo trial as being an example of this and don’t forget it is 6 years since that trial was first mooted and at least 9 months before the Pandemic when we were told it was starting.
Anyway the important point is to reach FPI as quickly as possible
Hi Ivy
It is worth pointing out on your point 2) that the 2 trials (SCIB1 combo and Covidity) are very different trials.
The SCIB1 trial is for stage 3/4 melanoma patients and there is a long list of selection criteria and exclusions. Plus the trial is taking place during a pandemic where cancer trials have been on hold or severely disrupted.
For the Covidity trial it should be much easier to recruit (Healthy adults with no Covid19 symptoms and unvaccinated are the main criteria) plus hopefully there are no pandemic-related restrictions.
Hi TF,
Agree with some others that FPI will be an inflection point in the SP.
The major inflection point will be in the data but I would not underestimate FPI due to considerations.
1. The major one being it confirms everything is ready for trial commencement so Product,delivery mechanism etc.
2. Given the history of SCLP in announcing initiation of trials but not announcing FPI as in SCIB 1/Combo then I do believe it will represent a major step forward.
Chester thanks for the reply. I hope you are right - the more blue the better !
Hi TF
Anything Covid related kind be a big thing. Once Covidity is in a human subject that is a huge step forward.
Knowing how well SCIB1 was tolerated plus all the vigorous testing done at Scancell prior to this application we can be 'fairly' sure that it will pass the safety and dose escalation stage.
Then it's real, the press will make a big thing of it and the herd will arrive knowing that the SP trajectory will be skyward on successful early data.
A universal vaccine is the holy grail at the moment as tailor made mRNA and Viral Vector vaccines may not be the answer longer term.
The better the data the greater the upward pressure on the SP.
All we need now is for Covidity and the Jab Free delivery system to prove that Scancell is the share to own.
Chester.
A needle less vaccine, a 'Special Brew ' indeed
It will all be in Lindy's memoirs :-)
My view that the announcement of the 1st dosing is unlikely to give us an 'inflection point' in the SP, is clearly outnumbered, but, as I said, I hope I'm wrong !
Konar I agree - the manufacture of 'Covidity' vaccine in trial quantity must surely have been completed in order to get the trial approved.
Would be nice to 'know' on both counts would it not ? GLA
Some form of delivery will have no doubt been approved for the SA trial.. what that is, is yet to be seen. Despite being expedited through approval, I still expect that Scancell would have had to provide the same level of detail for application as they always will have. Can't see them getting approval on anything with "tbc" in the delivery method.
I'd be very keen to see the published details of the trial though.
Thanks for your thoughts,
So assuming vaccine ready to go, 'administer ' ready to go ( The needle free delivery must of had approval given the messing with the Ichor device approval we've previously witnessed)
Then surely there shouldn't be long to wait
GLA
Can't see them getting trial approval without some fair certainty that they had the stuff brewed and pretty much ready to administer (note that I didn't say 'inject')
Can't see them RNSing any completion of the brew either to be honest.
Agree that no RNS has come out saying manufacturing complete, but knowing Scancell I'm not expecting one either. I'm just reading between the lines.
Konar, Scancell RNs from Dec stated Cobra was the manufacturer but as far as I'm aware it hasn't been confirmed it's ready to go. I hope it is
I suffer from the same malaise in terms of proofing.
Presumably they manufactured enough for the pre-trial evidence.
Found this on a routine search I had not bothered to run before (LOL)
https://www.biopharminternational.com/view/maximum-output-starts-with-optimized-upstream-processing
Tony Hitch****, technical director for Cobra Biologics, disagrees. “The production of COVID-19 vaccines and therapies is largely disconnected from traditional biologics as the first authorized candidates are based on adenoviral technology (AstraZeneca/Oxford and Janssen) or messenger RNA (mRNA) (Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna), with candidates still in development being DNA-based (Scancell), protein-based (Novavax), and using more classical technology (Valneva). This manufacturing is performed outside of mainstream biopharma, where most capacities and capabilities involve the production of mAbs,” he explains
Wouldn't - i really should proof read before posting
I could be wrong, but I would thought you would be able to apply for and get approval for a trial if you hadn't even manufactured it.
A 1st patient dosed RNS in my opinion will be the catalyst for a very big SP step up .
However can anybody confirm Cobra have completed the manufacturer
...plus this for a Covid vaccine this time, so considerable worldwide attention IMO.
I'm with dragon101, when was the last time we heard 'first patient dosed' uttered from Scancell. A significant moment IMO.
I completely disagree with that assumption. I expect the SP to rocket on such news!
Chester - IMO it's a false hope that 'first dosed' will provide any 'step function' in the SP. I think we'll have to wait for first trial data or a Partner for Covidity to appear.
But I hope I'm wrong of course
The next inflection point for the share price will be 'First Subject Dosed' in SA trial.
That crucial Safety Study sets everything up and is where the reality of Covidity will stir up the herd.
Not that long to go as the safety study could produce good enough data to prove positive in 2 or 3 weeks with the Antibody Respons data some 4 weeks later.
Then I would guess the subjects need to go into the general population to see what responses are to contact with Covid 19.
Chester.