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Lets hope so MCB, Though the silence here is deafening !!
Agreed LST.
Also using the pipeline should vastly reduce the cost of producing oil, compared to trucking to the Zinder refinery.
Another session when all other oilers up, we down.
The complete silence of management is very worrying. What’s going on? Something must be but what is it? Has anyone contacted the company? No replies as usual? I know they completely ignore emails.
Hope everyone is keeping well. Crazy time.
MCB, Proving up Niger on our own with cash generated from Nigeria may be the best way forward at present as i feel a partner may be hard to find or not willing to come up with what AK see's as a fair price. Proving up the Niger asset ourselves could add significant tvalue 12-18 months down the line when hopefully oil is at a more Palatable price, and the Pipeline will be there or nearly ready to receive oil flows.
Director buys would be encouraging. But at these levels with a £70 million market cap, they could buy back 20% of the total shares in issue for under £15 million. If they are receiving the payments for gas sales this shouldn't be a problem, and would slash the shares in issue to just under 800 million.
Since the deal completed last November the shares have underperformed massively. Even when the markets were strong in nov - feb SAVP lagged. Because of this under performance, when the markets tanked due to the corona out break we now find ourselves at circa 7p.
My main issue atm is with Andrew Knotts salary. Surely he has to wake up and realise we are now a £70 million m/cap company. Salaries should be cut accordingly to reflect this. Hopefully some of the institutions on board will raise this issue.
Poor communication / regular news flow seems to be the norm here. Maybe the institutions receive more information from the company than us regular investors, as they account for a large percentage of total holders.
As for Niger, in the current environment I would take a 2 year view as proving up as much oil as financially viable, as the the export pipeline should be completed in 2022, and hopefully the oil price should have improved in that time.
Drill / operation costs should be substantially cheaper atm, which is one small positive.
I am not aware of us being in a closed period, so would have seen this to have been the ideal opportunity for Directors to take advantage of price and put there money where their mouths are, 3 of them have less share than the majority of us on here which isn't a resounding endorsement of the company.
If when the next RNS arrives and it does contain unavourable news I will be very tempted to buy if the fall is big and the issues are likely to be be resolved once this is all over. The MMS are likely to accentuate any initial dip as they normally do. There is still the potential for a recovery here if you can wait 2 to 3 years imo. I have my on thoughts about the price we might see but your guess is as good as mine Once we know the facts people can make informed decisions. Hope you and your families all keep safe that is what is important
AK has been in self isolation since november
I suspect the whole BOD have caught COVID-19 and died. Hence there has been no contact from them. In which case what happens next? What are the legal requirements for getting a replacement board? GLA.
eco board taken a 40% paycut through all this - over to you andrew knott - a 40% pay cut would still put you on an ott package for what we have today ie a total collapse in communication, progressive newsflow and shareholder value.
It is not a case of doom mongers in the absence of information from the company what do you expe t people to assume. SAVP was my greatest hope for this year I exited with a huge loss. I accept the big drop is because of the virus I should have smelt the coffee in January. My fault alone
saudi apparently will issue new pricing for their crude, which will be way lower
So Savp is crucial at present for the National Grid, but the doom mongers are saying we wont get paid?
This looks to be a positive development in Nigeria.
Both Azura-Ido NIPP and Odukpani (Calabar) NIPP are currently at full capacity in supplying the national electricity grid whilst all other power stations are affected by a gas shortage.
Coincidentally the companies supplying Azura and Calabar both have a Partial Risk Guarantee.
The Put-Call Option signed with Azura Power, includes a PRG, and covers up to $237m invoices related to the construction of the Azura-Edo NIPP, whereas the PRG signed with Accugas covers up to $112m invoices related to the supply of gas to the Odukpani (Calabar) NIPP.
It's clear that both companies are comfortable increasing their gas supply to make up for the current shortages in gas supply to other power plants, which started on 10th March.
https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/gas-shortage-power-outages-worsen-as-4-gencos-shut-down.html
The above report from TCN suggests that operationally Calabar NIPP is proving crucial in keeping the grid from collapsing into blackouts.
US to not export? No massive loss for them as shale was about to start dropping off from next year. Excess for now can go into SPR.
Opec plus to maintain 3m bopd till April 2021
Then they need to drop another 5m for rest of year.
They cannot let the situation ride and watch ME and Africa plunge into a double headed crisis that will result in the rise of Islamic uprising and more.
But even if the shale oil assets of gazillions of smaller players is acquired by US consolidators, surely the wells will be placed on hold as there is no economic scenario where it will be profitable to pump. The longer this is delayed, the greater the pain for the US energy industry. And for developing nations, as well.
No point wiping out Shale because you will simply wipe out the debt, the assets will be restructured via D4E or purchased by larger oil company.
This applies in general to the sector - I bought EnQuest bonds yesterday at 24p. I hoping worst case is a D4E.
Russia is better off leaving the walking wounded struggle on, handicapped by their debt.
I was expecting cuts by now, everyone can see the precipice ahead as storage runs out. Cuts are needed pretty soon to at least slow the rise in storage, buying more time for economic recovery. The cuts must still be of such magnitude that will need G20 on board. I’m assuming we are in a game of poker and of the three principle players, Putin is the best player with the best hand
So those oil hale companies go bust and new leaner and fitter ones take their place with ex managers as CEO's. The banks have to take a hit and one or two of them go under and are replaced by the fitter banks who did due diligence.
Trump doesn't want this as jobs and businesses are lost and he needs the economy to be doing well for his re-election - this is all he cares about and has influenced every tweet, action and lie he has put out there since the Covid-19 outbreak began. he has appealed to Saudi Arabia to 'do the right thing' - the right thing for who exactly? He now wants to work with Russia to get the oil price up. US oil shale is the main reason for an over supply of oil - I think Russia and Saudi Arabia would do well to rub the US industry into the dust - 6 months of pain for 3 to 5 years of control.
I had a brief look over Seplats results. Ratio of about 50-50 oil/gas production so no doubt the fall off in oil prices will affect them but to date i don't think there's been any issues in getting paid for their gas.
I would expect with budgets undermined, the IMF or World Bank will have to lend support to some countries and i would think that would mean Nigeria paying it's bills for critical utililites such as electricity.
We need to see if there is any effect on adding new higher margin gas customers right now or delay ?
People working from home have said with intermittment power, means the reason for doing so defeats that purpose so power is paramount.
With CV-19 shutdowns the cement factory could maybe call force majeure for a time if it was affected (contract clauses) ?
New/existing power stations - have to be fed from somewhere - recent deal with Afam was to start Q2. I'm hoping therefore that new power station customers balance out any unforseen problems or potential cashflow shortfall.
We are less reliant on Nigeria oil price as we have only small production versus gas.
Niger will undoubtedly be delayed imo. Could always get some kind of farmout but imo no rush or need nor imo expectation to restart operations even if they could in this low oil price and cv restrictions.
....except that it has huge debt repayments coming due starting any time now, just when the junk bond market is dead.
The one good thing at the moment for businesses is that they will be able to have really low energy bills once this is over. In order to save the US oil industry Trump would inflate the oil price in the USA only and handicap their manufacturing - another case of nothing being so bad that a politician can't make it worse. The US oil shale business will do what it did last time - stop drilling and wait.
Can Nigeria afford to pay for it’s gas with Brent at $22 and in midst of Covid crisis.
Only option is to trigger the World Bank guarantee but at same time maintain political goodwill - Nigeria can not be blamed/down rated when everyone in the same boat.
Hence are SAVP processing this? The next RNS will state that the Guarantee now invoked. Clearly a very delicate matter and SAVP can’t give any update now - the only question we will be asking is are you being paid for the gas.
Nigeria has obviously been mothballed until international travel resumed and oil price crisis resolved - my guess is that, in view of the size of the cuts required, Russia and Saudis believe that the G20 producers must also be involved. Hence they are waiting until all parties desperate enough to sign up. Don’t know how the USA will contribute but they will. Whatever they do will involve throwing the rule book out the window.
I thought Sailplane’s Oilprice link offered a fascinating solution for the USA although would result in a trade war...?