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Looks like a tailing off in volume today. Is this the lull before the (cytokine) storm?
IMO, the new patent filing will be for a Covid related compound. An even more selective TKY2 that targets the key cytokines mentioned below in Fadec's post. That's why it is so secretive. All will become clear once we are clear of preclinical and POC.
With more and more data emerging, getting a grant now must put us in sweet spot when it comes to designing poc research. I just hope it doesn't distract from the overall 1801 schedule. Would be nice if it actually accelerated the timelines!!!
So you can see why Pfizer put forward Tofa into trails in Italy because the IL-2, IL-7 and IL-6 signaling!
“Tofacitinib is an effective oral JAK2/1/3 inhibitor that was approved by the FDA for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in 2012, Since JAK3 is limited to cytokines using the common ? chain family, tofacitinib can effectively block IL-2, IL-7, and IL-6.”
https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/508247
“Key cytokines elevated in Covid-19 intensive care unit patients are reported to include: IL-2, IL-6, IL-7, IL-10, TNFa – all of which signal via JAK-family kinases.”
This is what the research grant is for too see if there is any prove of concept in the data in the outcome!
Managing the cytokine storm is not straightforward and it's not just a question of having a TYK2 inhibitor. Your inhibitor has to be selective. Note the last line in the section before the conclusion in this article from June 2020:
https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/508247
' specific inhibition and no interference with other JAKs remain to be clarified'. On this basis we could require a bit of tweeking. However, Tofa et al will require more than tweeking due to the black box warnings, which we don't have. It might also explain why the generation 1 TYK's haven't been rushed into the clinic.
Damion is it because the research the company has done has implicated JAK1 inhibition as per articles but then then is also Tyk2 ones but have seen more evidence of JAK1 inhibition, as is thought to make more sense too dampen down the covid19 immune system overreaction than Tyk2, it could be that tofacitinib because it’s approved too market they could get through faster, but it is interesting that no other companies with Tyk2 assets have chosen this path, the Pfizer molecule which there is 2 the main one is more JAK1 than TYK2 slightly more you could can it a dual JAK1/TYK2 Inhibitor, but then it has the other one that has a similar profile to SAR’s with it being very selective for TYK2 but there is no evidence that they have them in mind too trial for Covid19!
Whilst developing SDC-1801, we have produced compelling cellular and in-vivo data in models of autoimmune disease to demonstrate the beneficial effects of SDC-1801 in modulating the key cytokines involved in the cytokine storm phase of Covid-19. Details can be made available to potential funding, collaboration and/or licensing partners on request.
http://www.sareum.com/discovery/tyk2jak1-covid19/
Hats off to you, Thoth. You have been championing the 28p share price for SAR for quite a while, which now looks a possibility in the coming months. If you are now predicting "poundland" for Sareum then that is very very interestng. You have been right to date. Thanks for your well researched posts.
fearg, you know what. With AIM, sentiment could push the SP past 10p whiles we are still in P1. Then what? I think we might get some early warning that we are in negotiations if the SP starts rising. If we get speeding tickets issued, IMO it will be because we are near or past the value of a currently being worked deal.
With Covid very much in the mix the price could go well beyond 28P i'd imagine
aw chucks, does that mean we'd never get an invite to the 28P party ? Has to be 28P + royalties
Anyone any ideas why Pfizer hasn't tested there TYK2/JAK1 in Covid yet unless I've missed it
Potnak - I like your thinking. 10p+ in the bank and a special purposes vehicle to farm the royalties and I think on the whole we'd all be very happy!
After all this time. I'm not actually sure what the valuation is. I'm inclined to go with RMM's low valuation but that's because he showed his working out. I've always thought if we 3 compounds (no Aurora) nearing the end of P3 and we could be worth 1.6 billion that would be 200 mil for SRA737 and 800 mils for each TYK2. To get there would be a long wait and would carry a fair amount of risk and some big balls to stay invested. Aurora could push this to 2 billion so what would be a fair value to take this off our hands? What does Covid change? a lot, at the very least, it fast tracks the compound into trials but it's a double-edged sword because if the is a tox issue in P1 that also translates into all other indications. So with risk in mind. I'd be happy with 10p and above but preferably 20p and above but i'd take 10p with a small royalty built-in.
so a succesfull Covid pre clinical. good phase 1 (no other tyk2 have had safety issues to date), and its poundland we are on the way to. !!!!!
Hi Thoth - very interesting read. I noted that they are now going for an inhaled version of Remdesivir which could be a lot more effective. Combined with our oral TYK2 could be a game changer for both companies. Also interesting that despite the WHO they still think it has value. As we know from 737, the design of the trial will be critical. GLA
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-gileadsciences-results/gilead-raises-sales-outlook-to-include-covid-19-treatment-remdesivir-idUKKCN24V3HX
Remdisivir forecast sales of between $1bn to $3Bn. And its not approved. Emergency use only in hospitals. Intravenous. And the WHO analysis suggests its not even effective.
RMM and Brighty make some interesting points re valuations. RMM's 16p to 20p prediction (see 14th October post) and Brighty's 10p prediction (earlier today) mirror my views. Once the starting pistol has been fired the race will be on to buy Sareum shares.
20p for Sareum would be very cheap if things pan out as we expect. You know my views on pharma valuations such as NCYT, SNG, ODX, AVCT, HEMO, YGEN, PYC, N4P etc. i.e. the rule book gets thrown out of the window at a time like this. Good luck all Sareum shareholders, Brighty
So 20p a share is approx £600 Million ....Seems cheap when you look at the CELGENE/NIMBUS TYK2 deal ... which I think was around £1.4 Billion ...... here is wishing and dreaming of such a deal
And food for thought .... would you like to be the guy/gal that rejects grant approval for a potential best-in-class to help COVID sufferers .... personally I cannot see the grant approvers not approving based upon the technical jargon that JR must have compiled as evidence to buid up the case for the grant ..so as usual SAR BOD just playing down what is a likely certainty ... only issue than being they have to get off their arzes and mobilize
Yep, RMM and I think most of us here would jump at that, especially if it came with a small royalty.
Hi Potnak. 20p is a price now. If everything got to market then north of £5....
Sorry if this has been stated, there are only so many pages I can read back through.
What are the chances of Sar not getting the covid grant and secondly, the patent application failing?
Thank you!
20p would really cheap if TYK2 got to market in any indication.. So 20p with a share of royalties built in just in case. The share divi vehicle does exist in other companies when there us a buy out. You might need the equivalent of 100 sar shares to get the divi on one Gilead share for example. Or they could do a share swap type thing.
We need to be bought out by a large Pharma, I’d take 20p a share.