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Decent observation Ben - CB is also at Jubilee Platinum. Age is less of a barrier these days and I should know!!
Good day today with no drop - no “soft signal” mm’s wary of dropping sp. still think there is an iceberg trade in play although volume today was pretty average.
*Colin Bird I mean..
To add my thoughts to the original question, Silverfoil, 60 is the new 50 so plenty of time for these directors to enjoy their SAR winnings in a year or two. To give you a little perspective, one AIM chairman, Colin Bell of XTR (and a few others may I add) is 76 and still going strong. Over there, we are also faced with a buy out at some point and there is obviously more of a rush than here. Apologies for the off topic but just want to calm anyone who may be thinking our directors are past it, and may want out before true value is realised!
Any valuation between now and P2 would be based purely on the IP (patents). Successful P1 trials would derisk the compounds to the point that the potential market size would come into play. I've no reason to doubt the Poundland valuations, it could happen but we'd need to be further down the development road. Just how much is the IP worth now? not, what will it be worth after successful trials. That is the big question. I just had my guess.
You also need to price in patents for Any valuation
Back of fag packet maths really.
Comparable TYK2 deals have been up to £800 million. We have two of them so that's £1.6 billion the rest is made up of our 27% share in SRA737 and our share in Aurora\FLT3 compound and maybe a bit for SKIL platform. I think we'd have to get into P1 with both TYK2 to be worth £2billion though. Covid could change all that, just because it fast tracks the tox studies i.e. we could get there quicker.
Hello Potnak 2 billion would be super thank you, i make that 56p, that would be hey lads hey for me.
Presuming we go into P1/P2 trials with 1801 and 1802. I reckon we are worth approx £2billion without covid. I could see a low ball offer come in to grab the IP before that point though. I'm still of the opinion that bringing the HNWI onboard is so we can bat the low ball offers away. Having said that, if the board recommended a sale at 28p, I'd take it. If a Covid (respiratory) treatment looks to be a goer. We'll be worth 12p to 15p in an instant.
I don't think SAR will be around in 18 months. They will have been bought and assimilated by a large Pharma long before then.
AIMHO
Elcap
Silver - I'd imagine Sareum wont be around in 4 or 5 years time, but given the newsflow over the last 12 or more months regarding Covid, worldwide patents, Tyk2 and its increasing exposure in many scientific fields and journals, another 4/6/8 months of backwards and forwards discussions isn't too long for our experts to work their magic and bat away the stupidly low offers
Sorry meant Thoths original prediction of 28p wouldn’t be far out!!
I wonder if the fact that most of the Directors of SAR are over 60 might become a factor in determining the timing and speed of a potential takeover of SAR. Surely like most LTH here they will want to cash in on all their hard work whilst they are still young enough to enjoy the fruits of their labour? For me this would make a sale or deal of some sort likely sooner rather than later and at a more conservative price than some of the more optimistic predictions? In the end I think Thoth’s order final 28p won’t be far out.