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Understood, but surely “significant value” has to be understood as offering a good return on investment for long-term holders too. 1.4 pence wouldn’t be a particularly good return on investment for patient and loyal shareholders who’ve held on through thick and thin for a decade plus. (I have personally held for around 12-13.) It’s sometimes a fact conveniently lost on some AIM boards, where share value erodes over time through “jam tomorrow” promises and routine dilution, and they strike a deal that is significant relative to current/short-term share price/market cap but doesn’t represent much more than the equivalent of having invested in a FTSE tracker for the long-termers (at best). Appreciate it’s the risk you take and caveat emptor etc. but still.
RMM. The point you make about TYK2 not being ready is spot on. In reality, it has never been as far along the development cycle as others on here seem to think it is. I'll add to this and say SAR have never said it was. This is the reason we don't have a deal yet. I'm still undecided about Parker. How does he get us II's or a deal when our product isn't ready to sell? I still think Tim's 12 months for significant value statement will prove to be true and will probably be down to Sierra getting a backer for CHK1. My only caveat to this is "significant value" can mean different things to different posters. 1.4p would mean 100% profit for my shares. I call that significant. I think thats why I'm easily pleased. I don't expect 28p, I'd be happy to sell the lot for 3p.
Sales are only possible via N/T which has been the case all day so the MMs have by default kept the SP higher than it would be otherwise. Very sad situation. I know we have been here before but I don't expect any positive news in Q4 so the AGM will be interesting this year. Hope I'm wrong but this will drift lower I think.
Oh dear. Looks like my forecast of 0.32 has arrived sooner than expected. Having reflected on this mornings presentation I think the BoD will regard it as a job well done. They've headed off an EGM and effectively bought themselves 12 months. However, I think even they realise that if they don't deliver a deal within the next 12 months and Sierra drag their heals over 737 then its effectively game over. Tim is clearly not happy presenting pre-prepared content and was much more effusive during the Q&A session even if he did side step the question on why Strand Hanson were appointed. In terms of timescales, the 12-24 months is my doing as I don't see how they can do a deal on TYK2 when in reality its just not far enough along the preclinical scale. With regard to other timings the Lupus results are 'in the near future' and I'm really not sure why some of these things are taking so long. Finally Tim clearly thought they had the skills to negotiate a good deal within the team. I'd say that the jury is out on that one and for one I'd like to see someone on the BoD who can really drive the commercialisation of the pipeline. Wouldn't it be nice if they surprised us in time for Xmas? Last years run up to and after the AGM has not left a good taste in my mouth and I'd really like to think they can turn this round. 4 trades today so far tells me there's just no interest anymore in what they are saying which is a shame because I suspect that underneath the veneer there's probably some hidden value. As Potnak says, two years ago we would have got excited..... still there's tomorrows abstracts to look forward to.....
If we had had today presentation 2 years ago. You'd all be raving about it. Some here are obviously overexposed and have forgotten the no1 rule. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose. It's always been 2020 for me. Might be 2021 now but i'll make a decision on holding\selling this time next year. Honestly. I'm 50% down and If I thought I was going to lose the lot. I'd sell now. I've recently skimmed £20k of profit from my shares account and put it into my pension so I'm not tempted to gamble it away on AIM and I'll do the same with any profit from SAR. AIM is finished as a long term investment vehicle.
I think they will get a buyer for Chk1 80% tumour regression is a massive carrot and the potential for anogenital fast-track is possible as it's an unmet need and limited life expectancy. In regards to Tyk2 if they go for another raise they will get it I believe as long as the US Army report they've mentioned is good so all eyes on that now. Additionally whether they are in discussions is hard to gauge but the NED's aren't here to sit pretty and the WH Ireland change didn't happen for no reason either so something must be happening over and above it being a regulatory requirement.
Jesus potnak....if i did not know you are serious i would swear your taking the pizza with that last comment....god bless hooky street right enough.
Viva hooky street, c'est magnifique hooky street??
Been in a meeting so didn't catch the presentation. My first thoughts on the RNS and presentation are. It is what I expected. There is progress. yes, it is slow but IMO, SAR have always been upfront on timescales Did they give any indication why timeframes have slipped? Did anyone ask about the new patent filing? I suspect having a patent will be key to getting a good deal. Everything else looks really good and I still think the cat will be out of the bag soon.
If CHK1 is as good as they say it is. It won't be long before Sierra get a deal on the table and we'll be derisked somewhat.
As for shareholder sentiment. I wonder how may will sell if the SP hits their buy-in price. My guess is not many. I know i'm not. Crunch time for me will be this time next year.
Not sure whether Tim is just a nervous presenter or whether his is concerned about letting a cat out of the bag?
Tim and John seem incredibly sanguine about the Sierra milestone situation which is surprising given the potentially massive impact of Sareum's plans.
Maybe the poster tomorrow will get the SP off the floor...
So the significant value in 12 months has gone by the by, now 12 months to two years. Really don't believe anything these guys say now, I hope the consortium of shareholders really go to town on Parker and the NEDs cannot see what they have brought to the party. Think we can forget the double figure scenarios from now on, really fed up with this lot now thought they were a bit different to standard AIM BoDs, hopefully 1.3p arrives at some stage then I can get back what I paid. Sorry if it irks people just expected more from the two main men.
Have to agree, it was a non event really. Seem to be lacking any real drive on the commercial side of things. I remain underwhelmed by Parker but do have confidence in both Tim and John in the long run.
So, Q&A session was fairly innocuous, mainly because the run through of the results didn't reveal anything that could be challenged. Gut feel suggests that conversations with licencing partners are underway but a conclusion could be some way off. Some clarity around the manufacture of 1801/2 so doesn't look as if we have the same problems as Aurora (which has now clearly been sidelined if not dumped). I get the impression that they would like/prefer to do a single deal on TYK2 but to get value of any sort we need to get to the end of pre-clinical if not P1 and that won't be before July 2020 so Tim's significant value in 12 months (which we are halfway through) won't happen. Bottom line at the moment is that a lot is hanging on Sierra pulling off their non-dilutive deal. On a positive note, Dr Parker said that this type of Q&A interaction with shareholders would continue so hopefully we'll get more interaction as we go forward. However, the SP continues to languish so we now need some positive commercial news to underpin the science. I'm now off to digest over a strong coffee!!
Listened to the presentation and just shrugged my shoulders, could not even gather enough enthusiasm to ask a question.....and word for word i knew the answers to the ones that were asked.
Fair play to the PI's who tried but its not really happening imo.
What a disaster for the crt....they said they chose srra because they were smaller and could really give chk1 their full attention....kerplunked!