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You should research how many other companies have had the rating of their debt downgraded due to the uncertain economic outlook. Clearly Deramping, trying to get in on the cheap, despite being a "Direct line shareholder" with no interest in Saga.
On a fundamental basis, this is significantly undervalued. When cruises restart, this is going to re-rate.
I certainly wouldn't be suprised to see a take-over.
Good luck to all those invested, both new and LTH.
Here is something I found you might like to read .
SAGA PLC – Moody’s downgrades Saga’s corporate family and senior debt ratings to B1; outlook negative
03 July 2020 13:01 .
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Sagas-corporate-family-and-senior-debt-ratings-to--PR_1000003054?cid=
OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects the significant uncertainty around the timeline for resuming travel and cruise operations, which is largely dependent on the evolution of the virus and the UK Government's ongoing response thereto. Most immediately, the negative outlook also reflects the risk of Saga's lenders exhibiting less flexibility in the event of the group breaching its debt covenants in 2021, along with the rising risk to its ability to repay or refinance the term loan when it matures in May 2022. These concerns are somewhat alleviated by Saga's strong franchise, as demonstrated by ongoing customer demand for its products and services, and good underlying profitability of its insurance division, which should incentivise lenders' and investors' ongoing support for the group.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's says the rating the following factors would likely lead to a further downgrade of Saga's ratings: (i) indications that suspension of the group's cruise and tour operations will extend into 2021 or of the group being likely to breach its debt covenants, (ii) deterioration in the group's retention of advance customer receipts and increasing strain on liquidity as a result of elevated refunds to customers, (iii) indications that Debt-to-EBITDA leverage (Moody's calculation, including ship debt) will remain above 6x beyond fiscal year-end 2022, (iv) deterioration in profitability of Saga's insurance operations.
Given the negative outlook, there is limited likelihood of an upgrade to Sagas' ratings at this stage, however the rating could be stabilized in the event of Saga being able to resume tour and cruise operations during 2020, or the group taking steps to reduce its leverage. Moody's added that a faster than expected return to profitability of its travel and cruise operations would result in upward pressure on the rating.
There is nothing wrong with shorting per se ...it is the brake against the accelerator of an over bought share price
They banned shorting of Wirecard , when in fact it was indeed an overpriced fraud ......shorting protects the potential buyer , rather than the holder ....shorters can be a canary in the coal mine at times ..they often have done very detailed research...far more than your average private investor
That isnt to say that shorting doesnt have its issues...
The interesting things is given the state of the economy, why still allow shorting? many EU economies have banned
The market is infested with shorters and algo trading atm.....many companies in all sectors and different indexes inc.FTSE 100 valuations is having a major trim...many times unjustified....SAGA is one of those so it seems....IMHO.
Decent entry now if you are looking a little bit longer than a week or 2 and can ignore daily fluctuations....once the doom and gloom will be lifted this will be handsomely rewarded....
Again IMHO.
" don't want to be doom and gloom on Saga"
but you do HarryCash...you have a history of it ...
with respect..if the world was full of people like you....I dare say we would still be living in caves
Get a grip , man ....
Have you told your doctor how bad you feel about everything?
"Three things not to do for the next year". You overlooked a couple of things:
Don't go out and cross the road, you might get run over.
Don't stay indoors, the boiler might blow up and bring the house down.
The media really have got to you, haven't they?
Hard to see upside with Covid still.rampant. Three things not to do for the next year, or more. Go on a plane. Go into Hospital. Go on a cruise. All are Covid incubators and 4sure plane fares and cruises will be in a 'fire sale' but should be avoided if you want to survive this pandemic. Hospitals are a necessary evil but again to be avoided if possible.
All theory of course and don't want to be doom and gloom on Saga but hard to see how this heavily indebted business will survive. Ok breakup insurance from travel segments but still no real value other than to the Lenders and bondholders. The latter will get seriously burnt in any restructuring plans and shareholders will get wiped out. Lets hope this dosen't happen but without some divine intervention the Covid nightmare for worldwide business'es will only worsen.