Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Given comments made to Abundance investors I am confident that Plan A is for the turbine order to go entirely to Proteus. That also has a 20% benefit to SAE due to the holding. I don't know what the Plan B is and as Proteus obviously attracted an injection of funds for the buyout, no reason not to believe that this is what makes them the well-capitalised manufacturer we've heard about. Let's see.
Turbine out of the water isn't great and we can look forward to the fourth going back in in the coming months. We know the revenue from each turbine is about £1.2m annually. Obviously that is welcome revenue but small on the scale we eventually hope to be talking. Remember that the turbine now in the workshop was brought out preemptively and having been in constant operation for around 4 years. That's before the upgrades now being made - it's a positive story.
We know that closing finance for the project is a big milestone slated for H1 2025. Let's hope we hit it. Longer-suffering investors will remember the recent highs of the share price came after Hanna announced their financing partnership for Usk conversion. These steps are by nature slow-moving but very significant when they come.
Another thing happening to the SAE shareholder base I feel is a movement out of the retail shareholder and day trader. Many will have been burned before, and the overall woes of stock market now weigh heavy on small caps with some risk involved. I could be wrong but I don't think we're going to see the 50% spikes around obsessively looking at vessel trackers when a new turbine goes in - these successes are nice but aren't the make-or-break or to-the-moon moments for this or any serious company. What is probably going to happen is slowly putting in place the footings for a large, successful company with a bright future, which serious investors will gradually take more interest in. It's a change I'd welcome and be overall positive for long term holders.
My main concern as I have stated for quite some time is not having turbines in the water and losing money during these periods.
Somehow a plan is required that investors must see showing how they will develop solutions to this problem otherwise we may have more problems than successes.
I get what you are answering.
And yes the are now project consultant for tidal.
But the details of what you have put must have been a consideration prior to SAE handing Proteus the keys to the turbines and the IP.
It would be a more interesting thread that really relates to the actual plan for phase 2 at Meygen.
This is with regards to the type of turbine and components.
I would assume that this through Proteus and their turbine build and supply chain process.
3 mw from original 1.5mw already so let's hope that the innovation keeps building beyond 3mw as this where the value is to be found.
Along with the wetmate and fast connection system for removal, replacement and repair.
The next pivotal communication is finance for this phase.
That if and when it happens will be the main mover for the SP along with balancing SAE finances.
Maximising sustainable growth opportunities from TSE is predicated on supply chain development (among other things). Indeed, long lead times for replacement parts is a given reason why turbines can be out of the water for so many months undergoing servicing. The supply chain for MeyGen Phase 1 was spread across the United Kingdom, Europe and North America. According to Blaxland, MeyGen has demonstrated that by working with a great supply chain, significant steps forward can be made in reducing the cost of tidal energy.
Looking at their websites, it wouldn’t be difficult to envisage Asturfeito https://www.asturfeito.com/en/sectors/renewable-energies and/or Andritz https://www.andritz.com/products-en/hydro/markets/tidal-energy (see the article there on the future of ocean-based electrical energy and their page on hybrid solutions including HyBaTec:
https://www.andritz.com/products-en/hydro/products/hybrid-solutions ) both having major roles in supplying turbines for the next phases of MeyGen. Blaxland seemed impressed by Asturfeito - they describe themselves as a leading manufacturer of hydro turbine components (and) able to manage in-house the whole fabrication process from welding and machining up to coating, mechanical assembly and testing operations (and, presumably, dis-assembly after testing for transport to somewhere closer to Scotland for final re-assembly and deployment). Is there a well-capitalised potential competitor in Scotland or elsewhere in the UK that could by 2027 be supplying a turbine (with warranty) a month (on average) for the decade or more needed to get MeyGen up to capacity? No doubt everyone at SAE, Proteus and MeyGen would prefer domestic supply chains if they could be developed. It would be to UK PLC and HMG’s eternal shame if the chance to retain genuine global leader status in this sector is let slip.
Research/development isn’t just a phase for SAE which is clearly not going to be manufacturing the turbines. Nor is there much sign of a scaled-up production line being established at Nigg. SAE now seems to be all about originating and delivering innovative, sustainable, cost-reducing energy projects in collaboration with others - not about seeking itself to deliver “commoditised” volumes of renewable energy. Project development is the company’s chosen role and the name of the game – as nobody’s fool would have realised a while back.
A certain kind of man condemns himself by what he says out of his own mouth, but Mr Black is nobody’s fool. He writes of well-capitalised turbine suppliers. Timaeus asked who supplied the turbines already in the water and replies, perhaps unwisely, to his own question - though as usual he can give nothing more than an imprecise account.
10 years ago, Andritz Hydro Hammerfest were contracted to supply 3 x 1.5 MW tidal stream turbines for Phase 1 of MeyGen. Andritz assembled the 3 turbines at its Ravensberg factory in Germany. According to Evolution Online (7 Feb 2017), the three Andritz turbines at MeyGen are equipped with gearboxes supplied by Wikov MGI a.s., a manufacturer of gearboxes for renewable energy applications with a factory situated in the small town of Hronov, on the Czech border with Poland. It is not immediately obvious who provided the induction generator or the turbine housing (nacelle) for the Andritz turbines.
The name Lockheed Martin appears on the steel nacelle of the AR1500 tidal turbine. In addition to the manufacture of the nacelle, the scope of Lockheed Martin’s contract with Atlantis encompassed the assembly of all the turbine modules (including the gearbox and generator); the systems integration; and quality assurance of the overall turbine delivery programme. The AR1500 has a permanent magnet generator designed and manufactured by The Switch in Finland. The Switch apparently also played a significant part in the design of the gearbox and generator mating interface. The world’s largest renewable energy consultancy DNV GL (Garrad Hassan) (with an office in Edinburgh a few miles down the road from SAE) were contracted to design a turbine control system for the AR1500 that would optimise performance while minimising extreme loads. The AR1500 eventually underwent “fabrication and assembly” at what was then Atlantis’ facility at Nigg Energy Park, now Proteus Marine Renewables’.
In September 2018 Atlantis entered a partnership with GE for the development and performance validation of an AR2000 tidal turbine generator system. GE’s Power Conversion business was also selected in June 2019 as the preferred supplier to deliver the electrical systems including the power converters for the next phase of MeyGen. 2 years ago this week when SAE announced the completion of the EASME Pitch System Project, Drew Blaxland went on record to recognise the huge effort made by SAE’s project partner Asturfeito, who produced (in Northern Spain) many of the system’s components. He also thanked the major subsystem suppliers: Involution Technologies Ltd (in Warwickshire) who designed and produced the gearbox system; SKF (in Bedfordshire) who produced the bearings; and Nidec SSB Wind Systems (in Germany) who produced the motors and controllers.
Might have cleared a overhang again in Sae full offer to buy and nothing online. Can go on decent runs when this happens
All I can say is - me too!
Don't think it should be a case of wind vs tidal. Tidal energy is just another very useful source of green energy which I would infinitely prefer to nuclear energy.
FWIW, I accept that tidal energy is expensive, however the model is proven and has generated over 50 GW since the launch of MeyGen project al, this years ago.
Expensive or not, I do not think we can afford not to invest in tidal energy or indeed other forms of green energy. The disruption from the storm yesterday to be followed by another storm tomorrow shows we have to call a halt to burning fossil fuels or say goodbye to this planet.
I have always felt Simec is a very ethical investment though it has lost me money to date. Hopeful this situation will reverse.
I'm pretty sure that the only downside of bad weather for tidal is if it coincides with a planned change-out of a turbine.
I'm sure some wind turbines are switched off today but many others are going like gangbusters. Wind is generating 21 GW and meeting 50% of UK grid demand. That's equivalent to 3500 6MW Meygen phase 1 projects operating flat out.
Also, one of the Meygen turbines is not in sea but sat on shore at Nigg. I don't think this is great to see since it means it's costing money rather than generating revenue. I'd like to see a solid track record from the 1.5MW Proteus turbine - high availability, high load factor over several years - before investing in an array of 3MW Proteus turbines.
We´re also operational in calm weather
And it'll be more soon!
Added 500k today sub 1.25p is hard to resist
Would it correct to assume that while many onshore and offshore wind turbines are not operational in these stormy conditions our own turbines are still churning away nicely in the sea?
Great to see pictures of the machine in the shed undergoing overhaul. Solar panels had the same high costs of production but the FIT boosted investment by private investors so I hope the government doesn't pull the rug on helping the early stages of this sector......there's loads of sea space.
Stay cool, these are generally not good times on the stock market
-10% *thoughtfull smiley*
I hope that we all do. Money aside, I'd also really like to see Tidal tech become more widespread in the way that offshore wind has, which as you know also faced high costs initially.
Don't wanna give any advice except the obvious one: don't risk what you are not willing to lose.
But let's see. Chances are good for you to see some green this year. 🤞
It could also be viewed as stubbornness or stupidity lol. I've always viewed it as a high-risk long term play.
A few times I've said the same, that's it, no more, the Director buy was my last purchase though, but I don't plan on any more, because I don't have the spare cash at the moment.
10 years in and your average is 2.47? That's commitment. I entered much later and my average is around 4.5p iirc. I just don't dare to invest more at this point. Then again.. maybe now is the best time..
2.47, 10 years is a long time to average down and my initial investment was pretty small, I wouldn't class what I've done as pouring my money in (I have low risk investments also), just waited for the lows, if I've had some spare cash then I average down incrementally. It saved my bacon with the S show that was Sirius and a few others, but I've also being burnt other times. I could have cashed out in Sept 2016 and Sept 2020 and done well, in hindsight I should have, but what kept me in is my belief in the technology, even more so now with BESS.
Agree with TRbob.
Trust me if the SP goes up by 10% or more all of a sudden new people enter the board talking chute.
They will tell us that in a week this will be 5p nailed on or 0.005.
Ignore them.
I'd
F they cannot talk about the basics then they are FOS.
If they tell you the chart says they have broken out...
Same applies.
GLA
IMO it's bite size gains and stability.
We have a been around 1.4 to 1.5 for a few weeks.
Next news needs to be excellent from Bess or MEYGEN to keep this momentum.