Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
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If China deals materialises:And it's big;Surely DSM will purchase PXS :The only decision I need to make is whether the deal or the cash call comes first! Would take a punt @0.50
CB
On timescale, as Sphinx says, ByHealth will have to buy Fruitflow from DSM, so, and there's a bit of guesswork here, it should be recognised in our accounts within a few months. How they roll out any new products, and the price they pay for FF is probably more important than the timing.
I guess you have to work out what potential significant multiples by volume and multiple by value might mean in terms of cash received by Provexis ? The wording suggests that, not unreasonably, that the volumes of Fruitflow that ByHealth intend to buy mean they'll be getting it cheaper than most, if not all, of DSM's customers.
So, if for example, "Potential sales volumes remain at a significant multiple of existing Fruitflow sales." meant sales volumes were 5 or 6 times existing volumes, then maybe "potentially at a multiple of Fruitflow's existing annual sales." means the value of those sales is 2 or 3 times existing sales ?
I think those are reasonable assumptions, though others will likely disagree and put forward a coherent argument for a higher cash value of sales than 2 or 3 times. Anyway, if you assume our share of the profit remains constant, then, once By-Health are fully up and running, we could well be looking at receiving 3 or 4 times ( what we currently get, plus the extra generated from By-Health sales ) what we currently do via the AA. So that might be 700 to 930k , which, assuming our costs are fixed, would give us a profit of something in the order of 400 to 600k.
Would we get that level of cash immediately ? Probably not, I'd guess By-Health would start relatively slowly, but I'd be surprised if the initial 12 month uplift to our share of the AA wasn't well in six figures and, assuming retail sales went well, would rise pretty quickly to the 700 to 930k which is my guess.
Another way of looking at the numbers is to make a stab at retail sales and work backwards. If By-Health fairly quickly get to retail sales value of 50 to 100 million pounds then cost of goods might be about a third of that, so 16 to 33 million ? Maybe half of that cost of goods is the cost of Fruitflow, so that's 8 to 16 million to DSM. Guessing an operating margin of 20% on FF for DSM would give a profit to share of 1.6 to 3.2 million ? What's our % share ? No-one knows, but if it's 50%, then that'd be 800 to 1600k to us, which is in the same sort of ballbark to the figure I'm guessing at from the info Ford's put in the Annual Report.
All of that could, of course, be complete and utter testicles, and it wouldn't be the first time I've typed *******s about PXS
BB
I’m not sure but I would think BH will have to purchase ff from DSM before a production run can begin . So before the products go on sale DSM will have the money , when they decide to pay pxs is anyone’s guess. Imo
Any idea on the timescales between the availability of a large scale Chinese product and the PXS bottom line?
I agree, if the Chinese venture is successful it will probably be "transformational" but plenty of time to monitor the SP as it is on record that a bit of fundraising will be needed first.
Have you got Gixer on filter. Have a look at all the snippets on bi-health fruitflow. Once they get blue cap this will be massiveeeeeeeeeee
This year's AGM was a pure formality, even the most business illiterate can recognise the unusual circumstances this year.
The work of the company goes unnoticed for the most part, but it doesn't just happen. Associations that go back many years have resulted in collaborations that bode well for the future. The very first " many multiples" mass product launch in the vast China market looks to not too far away according to the By Health comments. This, only in my own personal view, should make the revenue flow an attractive proposition for an acquirer. This year hasn't been one for such face to face discussions, and the development hasn't reached the right stage. Yet.
I will add my opinion to the massive response to today's AGM.
I note that all resolutions were passed overwhelmingly with a huge vote of confidence in Ian Ford as CEO. I also note that a maximum of £690k can be raised in the next 15 months. I also note the very positive response of the market in that several hundreds of pounds worth of shares have been traded in four deals.
I wish all holders all the very best as we approach the next few years.
and raw material from DSM
http://www.guiweishuiguo.com/post/60823
Interesting that the Keylid joint health product produced £120m income for BH ,for one product which was only launched a couple of years ago !
sphinx, hopefully it will all start to unfold soon.
Another reason for taking FF
https://academic.oup.com/cardiovascres/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cvr/cvaa288/5940460
Regional and global contributions of air pollution to risk of death from COVID-19
https://www.provexis.com/?news=fruitflow-nutritional-solutions-alleviate-impact-air-pollution
Fruitflow® – Nutritional Solutions to alleviate the impact of Air Pollution
Gixer. All the claims for ff could be huge in China , BH seem to want to launch 7 products and each one could be best sellers , but until Blue hat its all speculation .
sphinx, If you go back to 2008-9 you will see that Provexis were going to carry out work/trials? on FF and Diabetes. Think it just got dropped though.
" The research team continue to develop further claim areas for our core technology. In 2008 we will progress
our deep vein thrombosis work, with human studies commencing in 2009. We will commence work on
metabolic syndrome and Type-II diabetes claims in 2009."
https://www.provexis.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Annual-Report-and-Accounts-20081.pdf
"The focus for the research and development programme currently and for 2010 is the development of
our current Deep Vein Thrombosis claim area, as well as extending the range of product applications.
In the longer term we will seek to develop the technology for use in the areas of metabolic syndrome
and type-II diabetes."
https://www.provexis.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Interim-Report-20091.pdf
More reason why not to take Aspirin long term.
https://www.seriousreaders.com/blog/aspirin-linked-to-greater-risk-of-macular-degeneration?utm_source=Serious%20Readers%20Ltd&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=11937574_OctNews06&dm_i=Q25,73V3A,2AAZYQ,SQE9H,1
Reminder of an article from By-Health from June
http://www.souzhiliao.com/index.php?menu=241&id=240
"Platelet aggregation and cardiovascular disease"
"The high incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases are closely related to the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors. Traditional risk factors include hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hyperglycemia"
and then goes on to talk about Fruitflow.
Getting a mention in the top mans 25th anniversary speech.......VERY positive!
Maybe Diabetes is on the agenda , https://www.fruitflowplus.com/ufaqs/is-fruitflow-omega-3-suitable-for-diabetics/
I can't take any credit for the latest news but it does suggest, imo, that we are getting close.
Fingers crossed.
Yep, there's merit in that. However, if there's nowt in it for the MM's, they'll likely chuck the sp any which way, which does no favours to any holder. So really either way is supportive in some fashion. The By Health stuff kindly dug out by gixer and sphinx is encouraging though, big thanks for finding it.
If you havn't tried previously, why don't you contact Ford and tell him you're interested in supporting the company in the anticipated forthcoming placing ?
There'll likely be a minimum amount needed before it's worthwhile from the company's POV, but I'd guess something in the order of 5k would swing it ? It's plainly far more use to the company to get new money in than it is to recycle existing shares, so, assuming you're thinking about throwing in more than just another grand or so, it seems like a no-brainer all round
BB
They were genuinely offering shares at .60 all morning. It was tempting but....
Maybe but I also think blood pressure and cholesterol products are high on the list.
Depending on the strategy of “science-based nutrition” and its strength in scientific research, the Company has shown outstanding advantages of its products. The Company is dedicated to building the strength of science-based nutrition product power through focusing on the technical R&D of new detection technology, evaluation method, population database, functional products, knowledge map and intelligent algorithm related to precise nutrition. So far, the Company has obtained abundant achievements and stored up profound technical accumulation, including personalized vitamin particle products, personalized vitamin manufacturing equipment connecting with core algorithm and fully automatic dry blood spot detection center. Meanwhile, the Company has launched new functional innovative research and product development such as maintaining normal platelet aggregation and the reduction of AGEs (advanced glycation end-products)
The new functional product looks like a Diabetes treatment, under the agreement with BH new products developed would be on a 50/50 basis I believe !
"As for the new functions, we have developed products to help maintain the normal blood platelet aggregation and found ways to reduce advanced glycation end products (AGEs)."