London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
You will only have one login account. Registering with multiple accounts is not allowed. Any user found to have more than one account on this site will have all, and any future accounts suspended permanently.
Your email and password must only be used by you. If a post is made under your account, it will be considered that it was posted by yourself.
Your account nickname must not be the same, or contain, listed company names or board members' names.
While debating and discussion is fine, we will not tolerate; rudeness, swearing, insulting posts, personal attacks, or posts which are invasive of another's privacy.
You will not;
discuss illegal or criminal activities.
post any confidential or price sensitive information or that is not public knowledge.
post misleading or false statements regarding the share price and performance. Such posts are deemed as market abuse, and may be reported to the appropriate authorities.
post any private communication, or part thereof, from any other person, including from a member of the board of directors of a listed company. Such posts cannot be verified as true and could be deemed to be misleading.
post any personal details (e.g. email address or phone number).
post live price or level 2 updates.
publish content that is not your original work, or infringes the copyright or other rights of any third party.
post non-constructive, meaningless, one word (or short) non-sense posts.
post links to, or otherwise publish any content containing any form of advertising, promotion for goods and services, spam, or other unsolicited communication.
post any affiliate or referral links, or post anything asking for a referral.
post or otherwise publish any content unrelated to the board or the board's topic.
re-post premium share chat posts on regular share chat.
restrict or inhibit any other user from using the boards.
impersonate any person or entity, including any of our employees or representatives.
post or transmit any content that contains software viruses, files or code designed to interrupt, destroy or limit the functionality of this website or any computer software or equipment.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium and Verified Members
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The Arbitration date in favour of Rockhopper was 25 April 2022 and Menton made his announcement on APRIL 24, 2022 which meant he knew it before it became public knowledge.
It can take up to 120 days with a possible extension for the award of the compensation to be announced so his 90 days is not unreasonable as I don't see them needing the full period to make their decision.
In fact, either the Irish Government have their heads in the sand (most likely) and are living in hope but I would hope Rockhopper get a big sum which will scare the socks of our lot and they will be jumping all over Providence to do a deal least of all will be permission for the license but with bigger payments potentially on the cards if Rockhopper also gets compensated for loss of profits.
After all, the Brid Smith bill scared them with its "money message" hanging over them but the right to Arbitration on lost revenue and profits will scare them even more as it can run into millions of euros (or dollars, if you wish).
Hopefuly Michael Next puts the Compensation Question to mehole exposing to the media how the Irish Taxpayer could be exposed and expected to pick up the tab for a billion plus euros due to coalition govs refusal to act plus there incompetence If only the Irish media shown some balls and made the public aware of potential economic exposure which could force sleepy draws and mehole to pull their fingers out of their backsides for a change.
The issue with Rockhopper and Italy is that Rockhopper have won and are entitled to compensation but the question now is how much compensation will they get. That is what we will know by July.
The current situation is that Rockhopper are claiming $350m even though they only spend about $45m so they are looking for about an 8x uplift from the costs based in the main, on lost profits.
Based on those percentages, Providence has spent about $200m costs which can be recouped from taxes due for payment on Barryroe so if Rockhopper are successful and get the full whack, Providence can make a claim for about $1.6billion for all the profits it has lost .
So we will know in July how the land lies and because the Rockhopper case was held by the ISDS and "Based on the ISDS data, it is clear that investors in the European Union are by far the most active users of ISDS".
Where are ISDS tribunals located?
"ISDS tribunals are mostly established within the World Bank International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes? (ICSID), the Permanent Court of Arbitration? (PCA), the International Chamber of Commerce? (ICC) and the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce? (SCC)."
And, on the basis of precedent, Providence will have a good chance of winning. I note:
"In Rockhopper v. Italy the claim for damages could run to between US$200–300 million. The company is aiming to recoup both existing expenditure on the project and anticipated profits, an approach for which there are several favourable precedents to be found in previous awards under ISDS provisions."
All we need to know is how much Rockhopper wins given that most of its claims is lost profits over its investment whereas Providence has already sustained large costs. And if Providence wins this, how many other license holders, who have been paying the government for years for their licenses can claim in compensation.
July could be a very interesting month for us and a real poke in the eye for Ryan and associates as you can be sure this government will run for cover like the scared rabbits they are but with EU law up their noses they will have nowhere to run.
Meehole Martin has clearly been imbibing the Kool-Aid. He is fiddling to the scent of Rome burning. While he rabbits on about "the focus being on renewables", here's the facts on the ground from today's Biz Post:
"Government scrambles to avoid further price hikes amid emergency power supply plans. The state will have to double the importation of planned emergency power generators in 2023 to prevent blackouts, but is looking for alternative ways to pay for it rather than passing on costs to homes and businesses."
These idiots are literally looking on while the lights go out. The planning and permitting process for wind is the same chaotic disaster as it is for offshore oil and gas. However, wind will *never* be able to deliver reliable baseload power. The Taoiseach doesn't seem to get that even if Ireland is an exporter of wind energy by the mid 2030s, we will *still* not have reliability of supply. He also seems to be suffering from the delusion that Ireland's saving of 0.05% of global emissions is going to avert the scary future he has convinced himself of. The prospect of an energy drought is much scarier and much more imminent.
But we are where we are. We have one Taoiseach with no grip on energy realities, and in December we will trade him for another. In 2025 or earlier, we will likely get yet another. By that time, Dáil sessions may have to be held by candlelight unless they've rigged up a bulb to the dynamo on Eamon Ryan's bike. Don't expect Sleepy to pedal it though ... he'll either be having a snooze or be off "peddling" his crock of green sheeite in Strasbourg.
What this shows is just how frightened they are of Ryan.
They know if Ryan pulls the plug they will be for the bin. It is a bit like European countries helping Ukraine. Materials is ok but don't ask them to assist because Putin has scared them with the "nuclear option".
I think Ryan has become the Dáil Éireann, jobs for the boys gang, nuclear option Pull my wire and I will pull the Greens and you can all go to hell in a basket.
But it shows what side the "Independent's" aka Collins et al. are on and it is only a matter time before this house of cards comes tumbling down.
Here is a link to Michael Collins forcefully making the case for Barryroe in Dáil Éireann on May 10th with a disappointing confused response from Micheal Martin. The sooner Leo Varadkar takes over the better