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"In terms of the financial impact - I think the discount is nearing the bottom" - shows what I know in terms of market timing - lol.
Agree all points BBD
In terms of the financial impact - I think the discount is nearing the bottom - and that scenario for me is one where there is significant numbers of workers staying home and reducing their travel and associated spend. I sold a couple of shares earlier this week as i felt they had a lot of debt and might not survive a prolonged disruption. Other than that sitting tight but with new money ready to enter market on the bounce. The buying opportunity is significant but will rise v quickly when it goes - there are a lot of real money people getting their funds ready to grab those bargains so when it goes back up i think it will be incredibly quick. As such, I am considering an early purchase on the basis of some great companies at a 20%+ discount to what i had paid last week and I might not be able to get the uplift - also thinking of buying into managed funds and letting the managers take the buy hassle for me and then getting the bounce that way.
Feels a bit tawdry discussing financial advantages now, but that is what these boards are for....
I should point out that most experts are dismissing the idea that the virus escaped from the Wuhan lab, but it's proximity to the very centre of the outbreak is remarkable. Yes, a candidate vaccine is better than nothing, but phase 1 is just development, it might not work, and even if it does there is a very long way to go to get it tested and distributed. In the meantime we have no protection whatsoever against a highly contagious virus, and no-one has immunity.
At the very least, several weeks of disruption to business and supply chains are likely, worldwide. On a long term basis though, this is probably a buying opportunity if you can call the bottom reasonably accurately. My guess is markets will continue to tank for some time in this rather unfamiliar, unpredictable, and open-ended situation.
Thanks BlahBD
I suppose we will never get confirmation. Good news in terms of vaccine production though - 1 on first stage trial in US. Unless this is a rare hybrid that adds stability it looks like we will enter a world where as well as the flu vaccine (which we in the Northern hemisphere develop looking at the Southern hemisphere mutations and guess the likely next issues) we will have to do the same as the Coronovirus virus morphs, mutates and changes each year.
I think its fair to say that after the Italy outbreak it will hit all population centres - the advice to isolate for 2 weeks only if already ill if been to Northern Italy alps - for a virus with a 4 week incubation is bizzare and i think is a realistic acceptance by PHEngland that it is coming and there is little we can do.
Lets hope there isnt any ramping up of panic in the meantime.
NelsontheDog, looks like others agree it is credible that China caused the upcoming pandemic through incompetence: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab-2020-02-22
https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/24/us-warned-virus-escape-lab-near-coronavirus-epicentre-12114591/
https://www.google.co.uk/search?hs=9vi&q=Wuhan+Institute+of+Virology&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=opera&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi8w4yM3O_nAhXbREEAHaYYDxEQsAR6BAgMEAE&biw=1880&bih=939
Thanks BlahBD
Very interesting. I had heard the Institute of Virology rumour before. Lets hope that it is synthetic and can be made extinct - otherwise we have a new flu jab coming at best and years of trouble if not. I sincerely hope that the western world is putting real pressure on China to share if it is synthetic - if so this could speed up the development of a vaccine - however I believe that the Chinese would rather a pandemic strike for the next 10 years than admit any complicity in relation to this.
Outlook from Taipei is scorching, first highlighting the inhumanity of Xi's dictatorship, described as a "Controlocracy": http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/02/15/2003731007
then suggesting the virus may have escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/02/23/2003731479
" hope to crikey for all our sakes that
the corona virus turns out a damp squib."
Only 2 cases in the UK, and the incubation period is 14 days. China is bearing virtually all the brunt of this so far, and you have to feel for them. Apparently there is a reservoir of these viruses present in animals, so there is a constant risk of them jumping to humans - it happened with HIV and SARS, and now this (apparently this one originated in bats). We need more investment in virology, and perhaps it is something which should inform Pru's asset allocation, assuming they have a vested interest in keeping people alive!
China trade deal makes me worry they are they now sorting the trade deal as they know the virus is getting worse and they need to buy a lot of food as cheap or at least without tariffs quickly
too early to tell blahblahdoh?
still don’t know what mortality
rate will be, and let’s see how
it plays out in poorer countries
in s.e. Asia & sub-Saharan Africa.
nowt new in chinese central government
blaming regional officials for failures, eh?
meanwhile, the BoC is busting its nuts
trying to keep the markets propped up.
but hope to crikey for all our sakes that
the corona virus turns out a damp squib.
Good recovery over the last couple of days. Looks like the worst fears over coronavirus were overdone, as we suspected: numbers rising, of course, but not exponentially, and worldwide action seems to be effective as few new cases outside China. Chinese government admitted mistakes too, which is rare and very encouraging for the future.
Medical journal The Lancet is reporting that most of the early deaths from the virus were people who had pre-existing conditions like weak hearts, diabetes etc. Similar to all previous flu outbreaks then?
Hong Kong has further restricted the entry points from mainland China.
Fatprofits never mind Warren Buffett being a genius I think now watching this develop over the weekend you may be the genius
Number perhaps nearer 100,000 cases in China?.
Todays WHO situation report shows 170 deaths in China, and confirmed cases in 18 other countries: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200130-sitrep-10-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=d0b2e480_2
Maybe the real downside for Pru here is not the coronavirus but the Chinese government's response to it. They apparently arrested people who first reported the disease online, and blocked foreign media from warning people about it. This delayed vital early preventative action and allowed it to get out of control. Subsequently they downplayed it's extent and significance then suddenly indulged in draconian actions like locking down a city of 11 million people without much evidence of any logistical planning or common sense regarding supplies. It is difficult to do business in a country where the self-appointed rulers always seek to protect their own interests, even ahead of public health concerns: it leads to confusion and inconsistency, and destroys trust and confidence.
Well like much of Warren's homespun wisdom,
that's easier to execute when a financial genius.
Plus Berkshire sitting on a record amount of cash currently.
Hong Kong has closed 6 out 14 entry points from the mainland.
Buy when others are fearfull.
Just sold what I bought yesterday.
Don't like the news of the two virus cases in Germany not having visited
China.
On a personal note as my better half works in healthcare, this whole episode
fills me with dread.
must be busy times in the offices of china special situations funds.
something like this throws up opportunities and elephant traps.
As I have asthma, another life threatening respiratory infection is
an utter joy.
I think of more relevance to PRU may be lack of China visitors to HK.
And potentially business disruption in China and other Asian markets.
Added some today, however for the patient it may be worth waiting.
Risks to the business have increased, at least short term.
A lot of Pru Asia business is health insurance.
The result of this epidemic will be rising food safety standards, increased public health spending across the region.
Assuming insurers pay out on health cover, income protection and death benefits this will be a reminder to the poplulations that until public healthcare is fully funded that they need to increase their spend on insurance.
It Is an ill wind that blow no-one any good.
My hunch is that 2020/21 will prove to be good years for insurers across the region.
Never seen Pru release such information, but as wise posters have hinted, the cold reality is that, even if this gets a lot worse, it will almost certainly remain statistically irrelevant to insurers.
SP is possibly more affected by travel restrictions: 63% of Pru sales in Hong Kong were to Chinese mainlanders, according to the interim results in August.
How exposed are pru to life insurance policy claims due to this virus I mean do they have many policyholders in China or are the bulk in Hoang Kong