Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Aha!
I thought it was bloody good..
Now I know why!
I know... for a fact ...that a very well known professional photographer is a shareholder and perpetually lurks on this BB...
not a lot of people know that
Regards
GRH
Lol, he a professional photographer and specialist in editing processes.
It's a great photo...
I thought it was Omar Sharif
I n his prime:)
ATB
G
Yup . I'd been building and installing the stove in the allotment sitting cabin and my lad took it when I went to read a dissertation he working on
;-)
OT...apologies
Bob...
Is that your photo on Twitter, please?
ATB
posting history 'interrogation' is back - mebe just a glitch - (they occur frequently on LSE) - but thats good as yes, - outside of the watchlist functions - very, very useful tool.
Might be more than 6 months ago now, I said my only fear - outside of simply not being able to 'get enough in' (i'd sell the vinyl if i could....) - is having our asset stripped from us. Surely there can be no doubt that this is seen (ONHYM ?) as a 'strategic asset' by the country, - a more 'Western' country would no doubt mutter 'National Security'.......will a tiddler be allowed to bear such a weighty responsibility - be allowed to gain fully from such a ...........'Bonanza' ?
Enough to make an old man dribble.
Morning all
Love an stuff
Hbob
I hope you don’t mind the re-posting of this Grh? I just thought it should be a little reminder of what you have posted, backed up by what we know now in terms of the potential of the rest of the licence, not to mention any oil that more than likely will be there. Some are worried about a few million pounds worth of funding, REALLY? Of course there is a chance of this not working out but can you really think of another company with this much upside, these short time frames to realisation of value backed by some of the best in the game, who also have money in the line themselves. I will not die wondering. I hope to see some of you on the 8th for a face to face and drink or two.
That equates to 1.51 pence PER SHARE ...PER ONE BCF (with 257m shares in issue). Now ...take the target figures we have been given as the estimates of ‘gross recoverable prospective resources’ in Guercif: Low estimate ...279 BCF (RNS of 7th December 2020) Best estimate ...819 BCF (RNS of 7th December 2020 and 20th January 2021) High estimate ...1,823 BCF (RNS of 20th January 2021) Now ...apply the 1.51 pence per share per BCF (which already has a deduction for ONHYM’s 25% share) and we get: Low estimate discovery: £4.21 per share Best estimate discovery: £12.37 per share High estimate discovery: £27.52 per share Decent figures ...but hang on This is not the likely end valuation Of course, downwards adjustments have to be made for: - NPV (the time value of money...it takes several years to extract the gas) - A super large find may mean some international exports where prices could be lower than Moroccan industrial gas prices. (the way things are going... post Biden... I am revising my gas price assumptions...upwards) - The possibility that not all of the “recoverable resources” can be recovered during the licence period or extensions thereof. - Tax in Morocco will have to be paid eventually. - Cost of Reserves Based Lending ... (or a partnering/farm deal) to finance further wells. - PRD will need to leave something worthwhile for the buyer. But ... on the upside... In the medium term, the gas will not be trucked (very expensive but very opportune re timing ) as it is in the model set out on 18th March but it will be transported via the very adjacent GME pipeline ... so operating expenses will drop significantly Thus the value per BCF...nett to PRD ...will rise accordingly. Where does that leave my calculations? I am going to err on the safe side and ‘chop’ the earlier figures... By more than half... Of course, it is not scientific and I can produce myriad reasons to argue it is too brutal BUT... my current working assumptions are that ... on the sale of Guercif, shareholders could receive a special dividend as follows: Low estimate discovery: £2 per share Best estimate discovery: £6 per share High estimate discovery: £13 per share As to timing… I interpreted the Malcy interview as hinting that Paul thinks he will have all the data necessary for a sale in H1 2022.... WHAT! It is also worth saying that the 18th March RNS tells us that an EXAMPLE discovery producing ‘only’ 36.5 BCF over 10 years is COMMERCIAL REPEAT...COMMERCIAL ... Indeed it is commercial ...MANY TIMES OVER It is also worth noting that such size of an example discovery represents only 13% of the LOW estimate of resources in Guercif. That is some safety margin, you might agree And then there is Trinidad/EOR/CCS . (hard yet to value but certainly BIG) And then there is Ireland. (Bigger than Morocco?) Oh yes...I almost forgot... Have you considered the rest
Afternoon... I said earlier today that I would repost ‘Michael Caine’ I do so as LSE has seemingly stopped readers from ‘interrogating’ the posting histories of people That is a huge pity and very important As that history contains a large bodies of work provided by several posters... work that has cost effort, time and, in some cases, money but which has been given here completely without charge The ‘history interrogation’ facility of LSE also enabled posters to spot linguistic ‘telltales’ ... from which it was easy enough to discern who is a straight de-ramper ... albeit borne anew under yet another nom de plume... trying to manipulate the SP for their own gains or the gains of others (make no mistake, what PRD has here is quite extraordinary) The Michael Caine post was based 100% on the RNS issued on 18 March 2021 I am very aware that PRD has since issued updated RNSs and increased shares in issue but the basics have hardly changed (enhanced IMO) And please forgive me but I am unaware of any other post that seeks to bring the startling maths together in one (sort of) easy to read post By all means read it if you want to Don’t read it if you don’t want to spend the time So...FWIW...here it is : ((( Afternoon all... I said the other day that I would have a go at making the recent RNS a bit more ‘accessible’ Well....this is it...FWIW: That RNS (18th March) is the FIRST time we have seen PRD give us more detailed information about what Guercif could really be worth to shareholders. The RNS fills in many of the missing piece of the jigsaw for PRD/Morocco. We knew how much gas the company is targeting and now we know the value to PRD of much smaller example volumes of gas. NB: It is really important to stress that these are EXAMPLE volumes If we put the two together, we get a giant sized clue ... And we can estimate the value of the type of large discoveries that PRD are actually expecting (remember Paul’s grin!). The following is my own back of an envelope ‘try’ (timing?) at valuing Guercif using the PRD supplied data... I hope it starts a conversation here ... as I am sure that others will be able to improve on this. Here we go... So, we start with the value to PRD of a smallish EXAMPLE gas volume That would result in the extraction of 3.65 BCF per year over 10 years... again, that is an illustrative period This value (nett of operating and capital costs ...Opex and Capex) is given as $19.7m per year and that is AFTER deducting ONHYM’s 25% share. That is £14.17m per year (at FX: $1.39/£1). You can express that as a figure of £3.88m for every ONE BCF (I am not making this stuff up) That equates to 1.51 pence PER SHARE ...PER ONE BCF (with 257m shares in issue).
I’d take 20 odd pound per share, Michael Caine?
Some back-of-a fag-packet calculations:
Under the offtake agreement, Centrica have payed $8.5B to take 1MTPA LNG for 15years from 2026.
1MTPA LNG =48.7 BCF natgas/year
Over 15 years that gives 730.5 Bcf
$8.5B / 730.5Bcf gives $11.636/Mcf
Funnily enough, those figs all look to be in the same ballpark as those for the initial development at Guercif :-)
Is there any read across?
https://www.centrica.com/media-centre/news/2022/centrica-signs-lng-heads-of-agreement-with-delfin/
Just some thoughts that sprung to mind on reading the above.
I wonder how much of this gas will end up in the UK? I suspect Centrica might make a killing here. They've already, surprisingly, been flogging gas to the Dutch this Summer.
FOB terms:
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/column-the-basics-of-u-s-lng-how-its-sold-and-why-it-matters/
(It would also be interesting to see the nitty gritty of the NFE proposal in this respect)
The Delfin Deepwater Port will be supplying shale gas
https://www.delfinmidstream.com/projects
so although Centrica owns Bord Gáis Energy, no gas for Ireland unless they sneak it in through the Moffatt interconnector. And the hypocritical Irish Greens let them.