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MEM,
Some very clever people read this board but they are very busy and sometimes do not have time to delve down into the detail of what certain comments might actually mean - this is often the reason for the divergence of SP's from VALUE (PRD is very far being unusual in that - Tesla had that problem for a very long time (I was on that bus) but there it flipped and, in my view, went well, well north of VALUE).
Even if we use my numbers (see post below) - and I do understand I have under-priced the bcf and, thus, tcf values- we get to £16.50 per share in VALUE.
Before any of the LL crowd have kittens, I am not suggesting ANYTHING about the SP and what it could or should do. And I have been totally consistent in my view that the SP is frequently dis-connected from VALUE.
If one probability weighted to 95-5 against (put simply, 5% of that number coming home), the number is 82.5p (5% of £16.50).
The current SP is 5.55p.
That could be some accounted some decent pricing arbitrage.
Not all the clippers always made it home.
The Cutty Sark always made it home.
FWIW, I believe the good ship PRD likely to emulate the Cutty Sark and make it home.
And much of the reason I believe that is because of the serious quality of fact-based data posted on here by you, GRH, Wacky, Methodology, KeithOz, Adon, etc.
And before anyone has kittens about me "praising everyone", read the posting of those and see that I am doing nothing but giving praise where praise is due.
Fact-based data research, based on what can only have been huge amounts of time and effort, provided at no cost to a BB.
Something SPECIAL.
Probably AWESOME.
Because their research is pretty amazing, whatever one make think of their conclusions from said research.
I have never made any secret that I think some of the bigger numbers for VALUE posted on here could actually be conservative.
That does not make me a ramper.
It just makes me an investor (who has invested a decent chunk of change here) who thinks there is a MASSIVE VALUE aritbrage here.
I could be wrong.
In this case, I think that to be (possibly significantly) unlikely.
Morning...
AndroclesB
Thanks for the observation about the result of 'not listening to GRH'...
had Sound done so, it is my firm belief that shareholders there could have made very appreciable profits...
(as it was, many of them fared very badly )
I understand that their licences DO contain some noteworthy resources...
beyond the TE5 Horst
BTW...
Sound did not discover the TE5 Horst
(but credit to them as they did get Schlumberger involved ...
who applied modern drilling techniques )
TE5 had already been discovered...
one Paul Griffiths being the man on point duty at that time
Funny old World
Regards
GRH
Morning MEM,
I fully take aboard (!) (MEM is a pilot, for those that don't know) your comments on the price per bcf being too low.
So, the numbers could be significantly north.
As regards the serious investors, I would know (very well) and I know one of them has already built a small position over the last 4 weeks while looking at the whole opportunity.
It is very possible that they - including that investor - decide to pass. Everyone must do as they decide.
If they did decide to pass, that would be fine by me. I would still be very much in myself (and I am). I have always been confident in the VALUE so, on my own investment, I am very comfortable with the situation.
I am actually more than quite optimistic about the situation (recentally SP squalls notwithstanding).
Good morning S82,
Thanks for your kind words.
There is one problem with your calculations, if I may respectfully say so.
The value you have given to 1 Bcf is now dwarfed by the recent dramatic rise in gas prices :) !!!!
Will you know if your 'serious money folks' invest in PRD after their DD, be good to know as a further endorsement !!
I know of a 'Family office' currently running the projections, might take a position, might not.
Have a great weekend.
MEM
Morning folks,
I have a lot of time consuming family issues to deal with of late, and in addition I avoid getting drawn into ****ging matches with the crew here.
For those of you unaware, Sound Energy at one point were projecting 15 Tcf across their licence. Very different geology, they gave away huge amounts of equity, and were hyped and mismanaged royally. However their discovery in Tendrara was a stonker and with careful stewardship, they would have done very well.
It would have also helped if they had listened to GRH.
Morning MEM,
I know there are some seriously smart people on here who really know their O&G stuff (and then some).
I be but a mere itinerant investment banker currently in Africa, but I do know some people with some serious money looking at this (and they are not O&G types at all), so I am going to try and translate to real numbers (SP or VALUE, howseover extracted, probably special dividend).
So, for the technically knowledgeable on here, please do not waste any further time and skip on to better postings than mine.
But,as I understand it, a bcf in-ground is worth about $3.5m net to PRD. Let us call that £2.5m.
Let us take what you believe to be the minimum of 4 tcf (so, 1,000 x a bcf). (And I have read your postings at some depth and think you really do know what you are talking about and are more likely to be right than wrong - anyone who has doubt should read MEM's posting history).
Let us just halve that to 2 tcf (50% of your conservative estimate) for the point I wish to illustrate.
2tcf at net £2.5m per bcf, comes out to a PRD VALUE of £5 billion.
Which is around £16.7p a share.
Which would be very interesting, given the current SP.
And is not far off what one very wise chap on here, GRH, suggested the likely VALUE level to be.
No-one should go counting chickens.
The ship has not berthed till she has berthed.
But at least the destination has some hard numbers to which one can assign probability-weighting.
And they look quite attractive, even if one probability-weights heavily against.
DYOR, blah, blah, blah - but I would suggest that much of that research should be into postings by GRH, MEM, Wacky, Methodology, etc because I think that, in that range of people who really do seem to know what they are talking about, there is really something very SPECIAL here.
Good evening GRH and other Long term Investors,
For quite a longtime I have postulated that my research makes me think PRD have a minimum of 4Tcf across our small part of our Morocco License.
Heres's the interesting thing, there is a serious amount of evidence, in fact, many many bits of the jigsaw, hidden in plain sight, forcing me to upgrade that figure, more than once, to something rather larger than 4Tcf.
I am only ascribing this possible larger Tcf figure to the small area currently being explored on our License - NOT across the entire approx 7,600 sq km total license area. That extra area gives a JV partner plenty of scope to extract many more Billions of USD if they find more Gas/Oil.
I believe huge VALUE creation is very close. I am not going to put a timescale on it, as we do not know the drilling schedule yet, but months, and not too many months.
DYOR
MEM
I have just been wandering through the Fastnet CPR yet again...whilst on holiday
You might recall I have banged on about the Messinian Salinity Event ...Crisis
And what might have ensued from that?
Hmmm
What IF ...there is over 1,200m of late Messinian-Quaternary circa
6km west of MSD-1 well ?
What if ...that overlays 700m to 800m of Tortonian-early Messinian sediments?
What if ...the Messinian reaches over 1000m in thickness 5km to north of well KDH-1?
What if ...the Neogene depocentre covers an
area of 30kms by 12kms in a NE-SW trending graben?
What if ...the Guercif basin periphery uplifted by up to 1,600m in Neogene-Quaternary times?
What if ...the Guercif graben area subsided by up to 2,400m?
Good evening all!
Regards
GRH