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After weeks of incessant blogging re PRD. and pollution of the board by the Kingsmen's favourite friend, Jimbo's latest letters fail to mention us, thank goodness.
I wonder if the realisation that PRD ain't going to fit his one size fits all trading strategy has finally dawned ?
Strategic thinking .....
If things go well the notion of special divvies has been raised.
I wonder to what extent we would need to retain cash to ward off hostile bids ?
Keith
The double edged sword has always been my main concern.
We are but small players in a Sea of Nationals.
But of course not something within our control, we await further news
@Rambo - I assume, and it is only an assumption, that the GSA is ready waiting to be signed, conditional upon exceeding a pre-agreed flow rate (10 mmcfgd?). The 12th January RNS stated : "Depending on the results of the Phase 1 rigless testing, Petroleum Agreement Amendment #4 would also potentially facilitate an application by 5 March 2024 for a single Exploitation Concession over the area tested by MOU-1 and MOU-3, providing geological continuity of potential gas reservoirs can be demonstrated." I assume PAA #4 has been issued, but not sure of the relevance of 5th March - presumably one month after grant of #4. Again, I don't know how long an EC would take to be agreed, but with the PM owning the company that is going to profit from it, I would expect fairly quickly. There is always a potential political risk when working with a powerful partner (double-edged sword effect), but I would think doing the dirty on your smaller partner would hardly encourage future investment in Morocco.
I expect we will get a good indicator on these issues next week.
All the pieces of the jigsaw slowly falling in to place imho š
ROB. .. .. .. Chap on LSE has posted
HOW the ITR should be written
Remarkable insight ...
And all without seeing the terms of instructionš
Hi Keith, thanks for your detailed post. On your point below how much time would you expect these 3 items to take? I assume the second is already in play and subject to results but could come at the same time as testing results?. It's unclear to me what turn around time the exploitation application takes and is there a risk that is not granted?.
š¦This will enable in quick succession: a declaration of commerciality; signature of a definitive GSA with Afriquia Gaz, an application for an Exploitation Concession.
Thanks
ITR is supposed to be as accurate as possible not "very conservative"
Numbers from ITR,
TRACS 107 BCF.
PRD p50 433 BCF.
ITR p50 426 BCF.
ITR doesn't support Wackys figure of 7 TCF.
Worth reading ITR.
I suspect a number of items going on here.
ITR very conservative
Jurassic pressures possibly much higher - leading to larger volumes
PG being extra cautious publishing too much detail incase of a hostile bid
PG knows far more than we mere mortals
Letās see what the first drill reveals, but we might require 2 additional drills to fully expose the potential.
MEM
Jimmy, is the itr wrong, or is the wackmiester wrong please?
Bob
In the wacky calculation of jurrasic ne potential. I donāt see the the gas saturation , the recovery factor or the formation volume calculation.
In addition the 50 meters is not likely to be the average reservoir thickness through out the 177 km area.
The ITR shows a two areas, one of high porosity and the other lower porosity .
Perhaps itās more reliable to just look at the ITR P10 volumes.
Jimmy
JUST A REMINDER
Ireland
11) Further development of the Licensing Options offshore Ireland is dependent upon the Company obtaining successor authorisations, which were applied for on 25 May 2018, in the case of Licensing Option 16/26, and 31 October 2019, in the case of Licensing Option 16/30 following a successful application for a 12-month extension to its initial term to 30 November 2019 made on 18 October 2018. The grant of successor authorisations is conditional on the Company demonstrating, either by itself or with the addition of potential farm-in partners, a financial and technical operating capability to perform its exploration work obligations to be negotiated under the terms of any successor authorisations. No work programme has been committed to for the next 12 months and therefore the award of any successor authorisations will be dependent on attracting a farm-in partner to address the financial and technical operating capability and to finalise a work programme with the regulatory authorities which is capable of being financed. In the event this does not occur in a timely manner then the Company may lose its rights to progress to successor authorisations.
PG has played the long game, patience will be rewarded.
MEM
Https://x.com/thewackmeister/status/1756352259418460160?s=46&t=6JRoCt4SugtCBX31tiwGUg
#PRD
Calculation made on the Carbonate Jurassic prospect.
Info taken directly from the Guercif ITR
177km2 area x 0.15 porosity x 50m net pay.
= 7 Tcf.
Based on potential reservoir results from the poorly drilled Taf-1x well in 1979
How many more >Tcf to be revealed in 2024 ?
Donāt forget about our other 50% owned IRL asset, drilled by Marathon in 1974, gas discovered !!
The culmination of many years work, on various fronts all coming to fruition over the next few weeks, what a spring time.
MEM
Surf
Of course some will do but they won't be advertising it on twitter.
Some strangers tweet claiming to know is not worth any attention
Interesting mention of seismic.
For PRD āThe area of minimum closure for Corrib South is covered by the same 3D seismic survey that extends over the Corrib gas field.ā
āā¦consideration of its application for a successor authorisation to Licensing Option 16/26 Corrib South is hoped to be concluded during Q1 2024 and that the GSRO would be writing to the Company shortly in relation to this matter.ā
High estimate is almost 1TCF.
Not long to go, Vermilion must be waiting in the wings. š šš
https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/operations/ireland/
Chesh, the quote I posted was copy and pasted directly from the RNS 05/02/24, not from a tweet or news article.
All the same, the important part was "currently underway".
The quote actually came from Morning Star........!
"Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC - Jersey-based oil and gas company with operations in Morocco, Trinidad, and Ireland - Signs extension to its 2022 rig contract for the use of the Star Valley Rig 101, currently available in Morocco. Says extension will facilitate drilling of the MOU-5 well to evaluate the 177 kilometres squared Jurassic structural closure in a crestal location, the limit of which was penetrated in MOU-4 in 2023. Drilling of MOU-5 is scheduled for between April 1 and May 31 "to avail of in-country well services that will remain following the completion of the company's rigless testing programme, which is currently underway, thereby reducing mobilisation costs for well equipment and services." Most critical long lead items required for drilling are available from its surplus inventory, "thereby potentially further reducing drilling costs". Company says it is fully funded to conduct the drilling."
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1707154549047763500/trading-updates-gaming-realms-expects-to-report-annual-revenue-boost.aspx
All the best (so results soon.........? :()
Obviously the Moroccan government will have influence over what happens after any PRD success.
PG & team have expertise in exploring and drilling, but itās not obvious their time would be well spent in setting up a gas distribution operation.
If the tests are successful, maybe Iād be looking for someone to buy into those particular assets, so the new arrivals could get on with the relatively mundane implementation work, and PG & team would have a chunk of money to push on with exploration & drilling elsewhere in the licence?
TBF Zebra04........!
we didn't know that testing had actually started until the tweet (x).........!
"MOU-5 is expected to be drilled between 1 April to 31 May 2024 in order to avail of in-country well services that will remain following the completion of the Company's rigless testing programme, which is currently underway, thereby reducing mobilisation costs for well equipment and services."
All the best (thanks kn0wles..........! :)
Interesting interview from William Holland
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1040514/europa-oil-gas-outlines-benefits-on-licence-extension-icymi-1040514.html?viewSource=TwitterUK
Nobody has inside information? I find that hard to believe..
I have no green boxes on my screen today - must be because itās a weekend!
Thanks to all the great posters on here who add value through sharing their research, experience and positive insight. This humble LTH continues to learn.
There's no information out there letting us know how testing is going. No one has inside information.
It's posters speculating and then others posters regurgitating and so on.
There's no need. Just wait for rns.