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I’m really glad I asked for some advice here all the post that everyone has wrote today are cracking there is some real good technical information which I’ve not really had on these BB for a while normally if you ask something or say something you get 10 messages saying ramper or de ramper followed by filtered.
I not just copying everything that you guys have said but I come into this after my own research and everything looked good then with the results coming though great and other information it reinforced my thoughts.
For me I’m not to concern with breaking even or a slight lose but my biggest concern is I truly believe this is a great company to be in at the moment from everything I’ve read and my gut feeling I feel 100% convinced this will do really well medium to long so if I’m wrong then it makes me question my ability to stock pick and if you start believing you cannot pick a good company that is the most painful thing for me.
But thanks everyone I’ve really enjoyed reading the informative information hopefully more will come.
Two good / helpful posts on this, leehc and Dartron, if I might say so, guys...
Patience is conspicuous by its absence in too many cases in this game, lee, as you rightly point out.
As long as the fundamentals remain sound / the outlook promising, etc., patience is all that's required in the majority of cases.
In gold's case right now, it suffers from two short term pressures against it, imv - rising bond yields and the, so -called, upstart of digital gold - Bitcoin. A renewal of QE bond buying by the FED and ors to bring those yields down again shortly is most likely and the Butcoin (sic) craze to come crashing down once more is more likely than not at some point. Both events will then boost gold.
As for POLY, this has to be amongst the most appealing of the major producers now, following their latest, very impressive, figures and sizeable divd increase. A FTSE 100 constituent in the pm space yielding around 6.5% is almost unheard of in my long experience in this game (50+ years, fwiw) and thus currently offers exceptional value today and once the aforementioned pressures are off, the sp should rise sharply reflecting these prevailing stats. Ergo, just be patient, that's all.
That's my take on this, right now, anyway - sasa.
Patience is the illusive attribute for most, for example, how many investors cash out at doubling or tripling? the majority, because you always feel the need to lock-in profits, but imagine early Amazon investors who did that, kicking them selves as the train steamed on, as long as the fundamentals are still positive, the reason to sell makes less sense, but holding a super fundamentals share where the whole market is diving, also makes no sense, so I try not to get attached too much, I don’t use stop losses, it’s too easy to get sold out on white noise, rapid market movements to the down are certainly manipulated to take your shares cheaply, and I’ve seen a share drop 10% just before great news is released and many were spooked off just before the push higher.
Looking at Gold, look at the start of Covid, Gold initially plummeted when you expected it to rise as the pandemic news scared the markets, but the bullish fundamentals were intact and gold pushed those temporary lows to the highest highs ever, at $1700 now, Gold is taking a breath, because the fundamentals are still good medium term for gold, inflation is coming, no doubt, good for gold, and the huge global debt levels taken on in the last 12 months will force interest rates to remain reasonably low, they can’t raise rates to slow inflation as seen in the early 90s as a weapon to cull the inflation, because the cost of these new debts would be disastrous, so inflation will run hot, so I’m confident on Golds medium term prospects as in $1900 dollar plus, the short term is already here at $1600 to $1700, so this period is a hold or add, it’s not time to sell gold stocks, I’m heavy in MTL and a relatively small portion in POLY, reason being MTL is more like an early Amazon, huge upside and patience is required, I have doubled my investment in 4 years but I’m still adding, because my long term goals are much bigger, but POLY is a great Dividend play, and I’m interested to see how that pans out for me over a 5 year term, plus POLY being a Silver play as well, which has even better fundamentals than Gold at the moment, can only play well here.
The broker targets are a function of share price growth and share price return. The target is saying that for the money that this company is returning to share holders, and for the assets that this company has / will have, a fair price will be x.
When the broker forecasts are currently 25% above where the share price is (multiple forecasts) , then this should be seen as very encouraging.
Reading the dividend declaration, POLY say that the average return to shareholders over the last 5 years, based on the average share price is 5%. That represents 2 dividends paid per year. With the current share price, you are getting 4.4% returned to you in just one dividend. This again serves as a indication that the broker targets are reasonable, I think.
What could happen is that, the broker targets begin to get down graded. This could happen if the economic situation changes, here we are not just concerned with the POG, but also the US/Russian currency. It could also happen if the political situation changes. One of Warren Buffets basic rules of investing was to allow for a margin of safety, I would say that with the share price 25% below the consensus, there is your margin of safety, as much as can reasonable be expected by investing in a mining stock anyway.
I only know 2 others of the top of my head, but HOC had a broker target of £2.30 currently trading 2.05 so around 10% upside.
CAML target of £2.70 currently trading at £2.50 so around 10% upside. (im sure holders of both will tell you these are too low).
I do not believe this share can be manipulated, as it trades on an electronic order book. However clearly the price has dropped, this can only be due to selling. Most likely a mixture of short selling and II exiting positions. Both of these scenarios have no reflection on the company, they just do it because they can. It will rise as quickly when more buyers turn up.
What you need to do Ade, is decide how long you want to be invested in POLY. If its under 3 months, then you need to worry about how low gold will go. If you have a longer timescale, I dont think there is much to worry about. In fact, might be worth hoping to buy some more on a bad day. Might briefly see high 13's here?
Here is a video where the last 5 years of trading history of the company are analysed. The analysis puts POLY at second place on his best performing share leader board. Remember, this is over 5 years, not just last year when the POG was high.
I bought 200 back this week. I used to have 1100 shares here. I will be looking to buy them back, but on bad days when the price is sub £14.50. If I get left behind, then that's fine as im also happy with CAML which I moved to when this started to drop. Well worth checking them out, and they are primarily a copper miner, so the current economic situation is more in their favour. Again looking at about 5% of the single dividend declared end
Ok so has we are all chatting what are people thoughts on market manipulation i can see why brokers MMS etc would try to trigger smaller cap stop loss points say it’s trading in the 130 and they shake it to 92p say any trigger all the 99 and 95p losses but I’m always reading that this is common all over but I can not really see how they would achieve this? I can see how they can make level 2 look like gapped for big buys but as a private investor we always blame mms or shorts or both for sluggish price generally how much truth do you guys think there is in is I’m not talking about polly but more general terms?
And has we are talking what good tips do people have.
For example I have wrote down some golden rules I try not to jump onto stuff i look for at least 5 years history plus low peg good cash flow and managed debt
But I also like to sometimes have a little go at pump and dumps now and then but only small amounts maybe £500 they can be profitable if you get the right cycle but it’s know when the end is coming.
Has I think I’m going to be here a while I’m thinking it’s good to learn stuff after 6 months of trading I could not believe how much I knew from when I started and after 12 months I realised that I don’t know that much at 6 months etc etc
So I’m always looking to learn and one thing about trading is there is always new things to know.
I think the most important thing I’ve learned is no one really knows and don’t chase be patient.
My advice is stop reading, that’s one way to lose money, the advice is always 2 sided, one will tell you Gold is set to hit $2000 and another crash to $1400, no body actually knows, if they did, they would be filthy rich and they wouldn’t be taking the time to tell us minions, they all have an agenda, they all have placed bets one way or the other, and they want to get you either buying or spook you to sell, it’s white noise, stick to your original plan.
What are you thinking in the next couple of months on Poly price?
The more I read about gold the more I think it’s just going down there is maybe a chance mid March with Biden stimulus package but even that will be short lived.
But all the broker ratings are still talking about this making it to £20.00 plus levels if gold pulls down more where will this get its steam?
And I only believe brocket ratings when there telling me what I want to hear haha
Just had POLY come at at 1740 on HL post close... ah well, there's a wishing!
@Ade, Yeh, I learned that lesson investing in oil stocks pre-15 crash. When commodity prices were stable-ish, it was actually easy to find 50+% plays. Just read all of the production RNSs where AIM stocks had increased production by 25-100% with new wells coming online, buy them, and then a few months later when the financial statements came out the stock prices jumped... I remember buying one stock that increased production by 400% in a single quarter. Thought I'd hit the jack pot. However, the oil crash came and then the SP crash over 80%. Lesson learnt!
But you're absolutely right, makes no sense why these giant companies swing so much on a daily basis due to minor changes in commodity price. Especially when a lot of them have prices hedged and are actually either stable or only offering upside potential. But that's the market. Guess it's the side effect of many things being algo plays these days
Anyway, all the best.
1570/1525 looks to me like an accumulating range.... Could be wrong, but with the coming dividend, it will make sense
JTS I think similar the RSI looks like it’s just about there and from I can see with gold it’s looking like it will hit highs again later this year it was looking 50/50 to find good upward momentum in gold at 1750 but it missed that and looks likes it will slide down to 1400 then hopefully get back up.
I never trade in gold companies but this looked to good to miss but I dint do enough research and dint realise how much these metal companies follow the comoties market I knew it was relevant but on a more macro scale not daily.
I’ve got to used to looking at dips in good companies and taking it from that point.
I’ve now realised this is a very different stock but I’ve enjoyed learning the past few weeks.
I’ve decided to hold this anyway even is I miss out on a few more things in the next few months.
Personally, I'd be suggesting a seat on the sidelines with a 'ready to buy' attitude. POLY has dipped 25% from August high and is hovering around the Fib 61.8% retracement level from 2020 low to peak - subsequently also the floor established in June 2020. The 4hr chart has started to turn and even the daily RSI has (at least temporarily) halted its decline... As mentioned earlier, I was expecting some choppiness around the news with a bit of a rise and folks selling into it. That's kinda what we've seen.
Perhaps still early to buy for those on the sidelines. I think we're likely going to have volatility around next 2-3 months, but I'm anticipating June to see change in direction... That's largely relating to broader gold movements. Gold's getting close to some major downward resistance levels which should hopefully form supports over the coming weeks. Thing is, supports need time to be formed and consolidated. They don't happen overnight.
Who knows for sure. Maybe it drops another 20% this month. But where will it be 6+ months from now? My guess is north
Falling knife this one.... Good point Dartron, I'm still buying because I see value and think the market is wrong, I'm someone who trade opportunity not graphic analysis. Sometime I'm right sometime not :-)
Falling knife this one. If this closes red today, which is very likely, then the trend is still down on the daily chart. Ouch. Id be happy buying back in under £14.45 that would have made me selling out at £14.95 very much worth it. But I will wait until normality resumes before making a buy here. Maybe tomorrow...
Director bought for 24k£ of shares yesterday, and I bought some too and will add a bit more too this morning, Poly is now my largest holding
I normally do but based on the projections of this company I put about 90% of my capital here I know this will go up but on this occasion I’m feeling I can make any losses up by getting into something with better and quicker returns.
I hate mining companies in general but I made an exception for this but I’m sticking to my trading plan next time no metal companies.
The idea with investing is that you buy stocks when they are cheap you don’t sell them. Sentiment can be used to your advantage rather than being a slave to it. ;)
Darton you doing it wrong you’re buying high and selling low it’s supposed to be the other way around haha
I think I might do the same I’m getting board and there are some cheap stuff coming up so I’m happy to loose a few K for my sanity.
Totally agree, bought in at 15.50 a few weeks ago, sold at 1495, keen to get back in but see no hurry. The only explanation I see is manipulation or large scale trading. All of sudden this will shoot up.
Just keep buying. If/when the POG returns to the upside then this will be incredibly cheap. I guess the results today were more or less predicted so already priced in. Not that POLY is correctly priced at this level but the anomaly will not be this way for ever. Ex divi is may and currently at 6.4% so any further drop in SP creates more value and a bigger yield. Unless you are looking to move on then personally I would not sweat the UK's inability to price a decent company correctly at the minute
The share price has dropped 1.6% in the last hour. If it hits my entry point, i'm out.
Ade, I agree, if wanted to invest in gold price I would do that directly , but for whatever reason value of the company is not being reflected here and I have no confidence that will for the foreseeable future. If it can't rise after such a great results release, when would it.
Such a good stock, such a disappointment.
I’m just airing now because this is getting ridiculous lol but this thing always follows the F100 day trading curve on the way down but never really follows on the way up.
Just think about all the great news here in the past few days and we will be lucky to see 2% gain does anyone have anything positive to say at this stage??