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This is the way I see ( for my own planning) the implied values BASED SOLELY on the expenditure by Newmont. Obviously I would want the market values to be significantly higher than implied values below once the drill results are built in:
Currently, the total shares in issue are as follows:
Total 150m shares
Newmont 29.8 m shares (19.9%)
Others 120.2m shares (80.1%)
NM will initially pay us $2m plus spend $10m for additional 31% increase in their stake.
So $12m represents 31% additional stake in Omi.
This gives implied gross 100% value to be approx $40m.
The revised shareholdings will be:
Total 254m shares
NM 134m shares (51%)
Others 120m shares (49%)
The implied gross value of $40m ÷ 254m shares will give us an implied value of around 16 cents or 13p.
Now take take the next level of expenditure. NM will pay us a further $2m plus spend $20m in return for increasing their stake from 51% to 65%.
i.e. they are giving away $22m for an additional 14% increase in their shareholding. Therefore the gross 100 % value becomes $157m.
The revised shareholdings will be:
Total 343m shares
NM 223m shares (65%)
Other 120m shares (35%)
The revised implied gross value of $157m ÷ 343m shares would give us an implied value of 46 cents or 39p.
Now, these are just implied values based on what NM are going to spend and obviously does not take into account any drill results.
Please do your own research and do not take the above as advice of any nature.
Your money, your call :)
They've kicked Uruguay process since the December. And hope to complete it by June. I agree it is extended into the second half which could mean anytime before 31st Dec. Tomorrow or later?
That's why I also look at the technicals (which in general has less impact on AIM shares). However, my most favourite indicator suggests me to look beyond 4.3p onwards and upwards.
Lets see what it unfolds next week.
I hope you've enough in your bag as it is.
Yes I want to be greedy and get some more cheap(er) shares Bhargav.
Thank you for your write up as interesting read.
Uruaguay news is due “well into the second half of the calendar year” so if I had to guess then it could be September or very latest October but I’m going to go for sometime next month.
Either way I’m with you and holding my existing shares very tight.
Very true. Alot of disappointment around last year. Expected things to have moved quicker than they have. However we are now so close to big news. The long wait has been tortuous i don't mind saying but now we await developments that are looking very positive imo and due over the coming weeks. The MMs know how to screw people over in the short term but once news lands then the sp will really take off imo and be on a much more solid base. Why sell now when big rewards are so close. I'm staying put for the longer term and will only sell a few much higher at around 15p approx.
LOL, so true Webbs, scare us more and we'll do the TOP up! Find a better way to please......rise and shine and we've win win.
12p on just the News, this is worth 18p as it is. And barely over NMT bargain entry :)
Come on, bring it on!
You want the Sp to drop for yet another low entry for yourself? :)
I think you've already missed the boat and even 12p is cheap entry once the Uruguay settlement and NMT action comes into play.
We were their just on the News of Nmt coming on board, we've made significant progress in time with Creditors consideration to accept the court settlement (72% in value has already agreed which is more then the required level of 50%). NI report, start of exploration and so forth. So in essence, Sp as it stands is worth lot more.
Additional OMI shared offered to creditors is to keep them happy for now and future. Parting on good note. As Bonus, I should say.
Newmont knows far more than any of us, hence, paying for it and they won't walk away. All these for them is loose change and they want to stamp Columbia for their reserve, so have LONG term interest.
My decision to stay here for 2-3 yrs is the judgement I took on my personal conversation with our Ceo. I was disappointed
with him last Nov, but I realised soon after, he's right, he's very much focus on Anza and NMT, best chance to revive the business and things will take little longer then I anticipated.
Also, I re-considered the basics, NMT partnership, Low float/ Mcap, potential, Gold trend etc. And the BIG puzzle our Ceo was talking about will come into its own shape and place.
Also, we're on AIM, don't expect what we think, but what market can do unexpected. Get one ticker right and you're made it. Keep trying 100s and you may never make it.
So, on personal level, its a tough cookie to bite, but I'll ride it through the thick and thin, all the way to the pit or the summit. Imo, at least the script offers a rare gem in the wilderness.
Managed to top up yesterday couldn’t buy any on Thursday all day, this is going too be 15p before news at this rate not many sellers and the drops don’t scare anyone most have been sat with a massive paper lose here so makes no difference.
Yes not far off on yesterdays SP movement. I'm long here so half of me wants it to drop down again so I can top up one last time before the Uruguay news arrives.
Bhargav, you say you're here for 2-3 years so will you ride it up to when Newmont hopefully take the next stage of their ownership in the company to 51% (off the top of my head)?
In my eyes if the Uruguay is sorted and they take OMI shares in lieu of payment then you would think that Newmont won't walk as surely they would know more than us?
I've been buying OMI since September 2019. Highest trade 10.5p and lowest 2.6p. It's been an interesting ride! Just so pleased to see volume picking up and greater interest in the company again after all the hype surrounding the tie up with Newmont last year.
I've been buying since last year, like yourself Bhargav, as well and have accumulated more than i expected, the reason being i did not expect the sp to be at these very low levels for so long but this was a great opportunity for me to get in at ridiculously low levels for a mega life changing pay day as this pans out. I believe double figures is very close and as more and more news comes out, the sp will move much higher as the real value here becomes clearer. I keep reading how the world economy is in danger of going into recession so gold is a classic hedge against this which is clearly a big positive for OMI
Topshare- find yourself fortunate, many of us have been buying here since Oct19- 12p days and yet waiting for a break even. Hindsight is good thing, but it is still as cheap as chips. I've been gradually topping up for a while now and hope to gather 1m tickets or more.
I agree, 12-75p in the next 1-2 years is possible for this script.
And as I've said a few times, I'm here for 2-3 years.
Accumulate and hold.
Sp is above the converging 10/20/50/200EMA, my all time favourite indicator indicates it will fire upwards in coming days/ weeks.
However I have a decent holding and will be buying more Monday
Kicking myself I didn’t put the lot in here at 4p!!!
I agree except the DOW won’t drop much below 16000 imo
However this is the reason why OMI is so compelling here 12-75p in the next 1-2 years imo
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says forget what the mainstream financial channels are saying about more Fed easy money policies pushing the markets higher.
Nenner explains, “The clever institutions I work with were selling all the time when the S&P was around 3,000, and the small investor and public were buying, buying and buying..."
"The clever money was so happy then...The small investor buys and all the time they (clever money) get a chance to sell, sell and sell until they are finished selling. Then, suddenly something happens. Then the small investor who holds the cash and he’s in a crisis, and here we go down. I always stress to the small investor, understand how this game works.
Day before yesterday, the Dow was down 1,000 (inter-day). I heard one person say maybe you should sell. It’s always buy, buy, buy. They don’t do anybody any favors because there are so many losses. I never hear CNBC say sell, sell, sell. So, it’s a crooked game.”
What does he say to people waiting for the Fed to drive markets back up with easy money? Nenner says:
“We are finished with the cheap money. It’s not going to work anymore. That’s what the big investors understand.
Even if we have 0% rates, it’s not going to keep this economy going. They cannot keep it going anymore.”
Last time Nenner was on USAWatchdog.com, he said “gold was going up” and “interest rates were going to continue to fall.”
He was correct and says those two trends are going to continue. Nenner says:
“We are in a new bull market in gold, and the price is headed to at least $2,500 per ounce...
The stock market is going to continue to go down over the next 2 ½ years.”
Nenner is standing by his call he’s had in place for years for a “bottom in the DOW at 5,000.”
Nenner is not backing off that call one bit. So, you’ve been warned.
As far as silver, Nenner says, “Silver is going to go up too, but it won’t take off for a few months.”
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Charles Nenner, one of the very best geopolitical and financial market cycle experts on the planet.
Certainly $2000 is very possible
You WILL make money ;)
If I hold this share to December 2020, could anyone with any concrete evidence based ramping advise me as to what the sp would be then,?
Gold 2500 coming according to Charles Nenner and he's often correct
So far you're right for the second time. Strike it lucky and let us know when the explosive RNS is due :)
Bodes well for next week.
fantastic rebound looks like setup for a run to recent highs 8p
Gold is really the only safe place to park funds except gold miners