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TWATCHER -
In a word. Respect.
Very many thanks for your detailed summary. Going to stop day trading this now and park it (until I change my mind again!).
"no does any one else and as was explained only RTC is going through MHRA for a self use diagnostic test"
The statement that no one is has approval, nor has approval in process, for a Covid-19 related LFT, was made solely in regards to an antibody test...as far as I remember.
Super presentation and plenty of optimism just a waiting game. Come on Handjob & get the MHRA test approved.
SP bounce today muted after the MM milking things yesterday, would be nice to get 50% of that back by tomorrow.
My understanding from the presentation is that any such test requires MHRA approval, regardless of who the the "buyer" is. This is why those tests that were briefly on sale in Superdrug etc in Spring were withdrawn, they had no approval for home use.
"So just to clarify do we think the antigen LFT can be sold for home use without MHRA approval as long as the government are not the main purchaser?"
No. for three reasons:
1). We don't have an antigen LFT to sell yet.
2). Self-test use requires specific MHRA approval. Which is only be triggered by government request.
3). Sale of all tests to individuals has been banned. Antigen testing in particular would be covered by the notifiable disease requirements of the Health Protection Regulations 2010.
So just to clarify do we think the antigen LFT can be sold for home use without MHRA approval as long as the government are not the main purchaser?
Would be great if this was the case and aim sales at the industries that will be big money for it - airlines, stadiums events, night clubs etc. I must admit I am quite excited for Christmas now. I'll be sat round the dining table with the family checking my phone for technical transfer confirmation ££££££
pablo incredible price
Colin sounded very optimistic when he was talking about the 20%+ year on year for October with regards to revenue on the food intolerance. I'm happy I topped up yesterday @73.8
That’s a fair/good summary TWatcher. Thank you for sharing it here.
"He sort of answered that question. If the government is to buy then they would go for it as he explained for the antibody test."
I think he was a bit clearer than that: the MHRA self-test use approval process is only triggered when the government will be the main customer. Effectively, the MHRA self-test approval process only happens when the government wants it to happen.
Which would make sense. The government wants to control the supply of key LFTs, making sure that their use is primarily for for T&T related processes, rather than every Tom, Dick and Harry rushing to the pharmacy/going online for an OTC test and deciding their actions based on that. They've already stopped OTC/online sales to individuals and are only permitting professional PoC testing (because the Covid 19 public health regulations require a +ve test to be reported by the professional undertaking the test).
Greenie , sorry you are mistaken .
The £10 m is only for materials and I had it confirmed from omega , that only part of that is for the first 1 m contract , the response clearly implied this was for part of second contract and is material . We know it costs about 75 p to make the test , but at volume down to 50 p . So that implies the £10 m is for 20 million tests for materials . I think the £75 m is for may be 20 million tests or more .
What is clear is they have a big contract coming after Mhra approval .
200k ODD should say 200k ODX
On the bidstats website there are 2 contracts awarded to RTC: £10m on 9 Oct and £75m on 20 Oct (links below).
The RNS announcing the initial order of 1m tests was made on 19 Oct referencing the contract having been signed on the 6 Oct. So it would make sense that the 1st contract award on the bidstats website for £10m relates to the initial order of 1m tests.
Note the timing: contract awarded 6 Oct, bidstats lists contract award as 9 Oct, RNS announced on 19 Oct (10 days after bidstats).
If £10m is for first tranche of 1m tests (so £10 per test) then 2nd tranche is for at least 7.5m tests but probably more due to volume discount. I believe RTC have said they could supply UK Govt with 10m tests by end of Jan 2021 so it’s possible that the £75m second tranche is for the balance of 9m tests, or thereabouts.
800k tests per week between Nov and Jan is approx 10m tests so it’s quite feasible that the £75m contract award does relate to a second tranche taking the total Govt order up to circa 10m by end Jan. So yes the 800k per week or 200k to ODD could well be a done deal.
Within the time frame of the initial order with RNS coming 10 days after bidstats listing, takes us to 30 Oct. Its quite possible this could all be confirmed by the end of the week.
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W41/736559165
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W43/737280030
He sort of answered that question. If the government is to buy then they would go for it as he explained for the antibody test. Note the capacity charts took the quantity manufactured to be greater than the ODX share of the 1 m rtc tests. I’d hope that the home test approval has a backstop of the orders shipping.... eventually. As a side I was speaking to a lab who are trying to pick up nhs testing contracts sand they can only say that the timeline is just so extended it’s unreal so it’s not just Colin who is experiencing it. My feel was that he is the sort of guy that gets a niche in the market and just burrows and burrows. Given their position I don’t think anyone will be able to touch them in 6 months time. Good presentation - could do with a better CFO.
Twatcher, Thank you for a very well put together precis of the presentation.
Just one observation would be that waiting for a FDA submission to be accepted could take many months. In the meantime their own U.S companies may already be 'on board'. That's the way it works over the pond; they look after their own first.
One would expect a major uprating by Finncap based on that presentation.
1) profit from government is around 75p+. There is no additional profit share
2) profit from RTC antibody that is sold to non-government, there is an undisclosed additional profit share
3) Ramping up overall LFT to 500K a week, and showed a path to 1M a week by Jan, and 2M a week by April. Of that, they are reserving 200K a week for gov RTC antibody orders. With a potential to eat into the overall capacity depending on additional gov requirement. CK appear to me to suggest that the 200K a week was the max that was covered by the "up to 25%" agreement, which suggests that it applies to an overall RTC order of 800K a week. Above that ODX would get 33% of additional orders. That was my take on what he said. 500K a week overall capacity is hoped to be able to be extended to 600K a week using the same equipment via optimisation of the processes.
4) The entire ramp up to a potential 2M a week can be acheived WITHIN existing funding, no new funding required. this was very clear.
5) Ramping up capacity to over 1M a week was not being done for the sake of it. That's paraphrasing but thats what he said. He also phrased things in such a way that I was left with the opinion that 200K a week from the Gov was a done deal.
6) I was the one that sent in the question in advance about whether there was an expectation that mass vaccination would require mass antibody testing, and he was very clear that it WAS his expectation.
7)Antigen LFT will hopefully be handed over to ODX by beginning of NOV. Would hope to be in a position to have completed 3 test runs by Xmas, or if not early in the new year.
8) As far as he is aware, the RTC test is the ONLY test that is being considered by MHRA, in other words at this time there are NO other antibody tests can have home use approval, or are being considered for home use approval. Expressed some disapointment that MHRA approval was not done at this time. Indicated that he would expect communication from MHRA very shortly, but that could be *possibly* a request for more information.
9) Spoke about targetting the US market for antibody (and I think antigen) testing. Said it was quite a bit of a process. They have someone working that angle for them, it includes getting FDA approval, but the suggestion was this could take quite a while.
I sent a live question in relating to MHRA testing for Antigen LFT. Wanted to know if Home use would be a thing for LFT antigen, and whether having done it for antibody, if it would give them a head-start for Antigen MHRA, but that question didn't make the cut.
There was a lot of stuff about their other businesses, such as HIV testing, and the food intolerance stuff, the summation of which is that both have a very positive outlook.
I felt the facts and outlook was really great, his presentation is a bit stumbling, the finanacial guy is a more assured presenter. I was left feeling that the formal RNS was a missed opportunity as the presentation provided outlook that could been