The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Thanks Porky. Sadly I don't think they will get anywhere near the 84% mentioned amongst the younger generation although the vaccination rates where I live for groups 1 - 4 is in excess of 90%. I think we'll be testing forever. I've already seen talk of new pandemics.
Porky, thanks for a very useful summary of yesterday's Horizon programme.
P.S. It's herd immunity, not heard immunity.
Porky - Many thanks for taking the time to post the highlights from the programme for those of us that missed it.
Looking forward to the event today and hopefully another Blue Day!
PART 3
How we can Treat the Virus
Treatments with patients, c pack giving oxygen, turning the patient over, optimising patient care but now able to save more lives.
Long covid is also now an issue. It is causing Fatigue, heart issues, breathing issues – two to three months later after getting covid issues are showing, specifically in the younger generations.
(Think we will see more on this in due course, its evidently a bigger issue than we are being shown)
When will we get back to normal?
The answer is in a formula:
H = I – I/R over E
Heard immunity ideal, this being the percentage of people vaccinated in the population required to stop it spreading.
R reproduction number how quick it reproduces (1 in 3 is the natural level) but a new variant can see that increase to 4.5 which is the concern that can affect the timelines.
And vaccine efficacy – how well the vaccine is working. Taking the expected AZK efficacy 67% the rate of spread this would mean that 84% of the population would need to be vaccinated to allow heard immunity by November in the UK this year for total normality!!!
BUT a small percentage reduction in efficacy means the percentage of people vaccinated needs to go up. For example, a new variant that spreads quicker can see our vaccine required rate go up to 97% for heard immunity which is just not likely.
The conclusion being that we will need to adjust to living with this virus. We can live with the virus without Heard immunity, but we need ideally vaccine rates as high as possible.
Hence why the government are so concerned about Variants being tightly controlled and why the vaccines need updating to reduce chances of continual lock downs.
We will only know more over the coming months and therefore government have suddenly taken a more cautious stance when quoting timelines.
That just about cover it.
Pork’s
NB. Whole genome sequencing is an ESSENTIAL service. The discussion later today will be enlightening in this regard.
PART 2
Over at AZK where they manufacture the vaccine.
It is essential that they secure the coding sequences from whole genome sequencing to adapt the vaccine.
(Hate to say it but reconfirms that we have AZK acquisition written all over us)
The SA variant is causing issues.
Unless we update the vaccines, they could be rendered useless. Highly likely they will need to keep updating each year like the flu vaccine, but we do not know how long one vaccine can last for. You need the booster jab to booster cells quicker because weaker cells die off the longer left.
(NB. 3 weeks for booster is better than 12, government are gambling better for more people vaccinated at lesser protection rate than more at higher. But on a completely selfish level you want the booster as quick as you can get it for max protection)
How the virus Spreads
Proven that Air travel helped spread the virus.
Without ANY control (no lock down) at all the R rate is 3 this means 3 people infected for every 1 with the virus.
Then we need to look at rate of spread this is the K number.
For example, 43 cases on one flight came from 5 people on it due to K number – super spreaders.
We then carried out to see how super spreading worked using Pigs… wheek, wheek….
Super spreading analysis understood.
This resulted in Surge testing where a new Variant found.
The Concept following track and trace being to quickly find the contact with the virus then trace contacts, the person who gave it you are likely to have passed onto others. So, with backward tracing identify who gave it you and contain and stop you passing it on forwards. Hence Surge Testing with PCR absolutely vital to identify and contain a new variant.
Testing will be a Big Part of our lives going forwards.
They then outline a LFT test, that it picks up high viral load, but a negative test is NOT to be taken as you being virus free and that you need a PCR test for that.
Importance of PCR to identify the variants. Incredibly positive on PCR.
For those that did not catch the program earlier, this is the precis: -
PART 1
Coronavirus is changing Shape.
Infection rates fell last November but in Kent cases were rising. Genome sequencing picked up the new variant that was more transmittable.
Government supported Cog-UK (we play a part in this)
Genetic code loaded to the data base to identify mutations.
Sequencing tells if two viruses are the same or different.
Virus Jumped to 23 mutations then to 37 mutations in a body with a weakness and they discovered the virus when exposed to new antibodies as it evolved mutated more. Some mutations are not much different BUT some can move in different direction and a New variant could go out of control.
Now we are in an immunisation phase the virus will try and adapt again and create new variants to try and escape it, this is the concern and vital we stay ahead of it.
Sharon Pea)ock is introduced regarding Sequencing.
Currently the SA, Brazil UK and Nigeria strains are of Importance but new ones emerging. The key factors that Sequencing is looking for are: -
- Is it more transmittable?
- Will it avoid our immune system?
- Is it more lethal and will it kill more people?
- Could it affect our tests and avoid them?
New variants are now proving to have resistance to vaccines in certain parts of the world. This is causing obvious concern.
The Kent variant for example is more likely to kill us due to the infection rate which is 35% higher however the numbers are lower in the UK.