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Agreed Hydr. I think DA has intentionally low balled the forecast and camouflaged it under the 'covid is uncertain and difficult to predict' umbrella. Im confident he can use his experience, the cash and our Covid platform to grow ncyt into a much bigger organisation than today.
Personally expecting a lot more from the new sales teams. Think they need to be aiming for 50% plus growth in non Covid revenues. They have the products, they are growing the sales team into global reaching locations. We should see a real difference here if the right people are doing the right things.
Yes growth helps but you have to cement your base first. If you can prove consistent sales and bottom line then that's the first step. Consistent growth and you'll be commanding higher than industry standard pe rates. You'll be in the realms of 20-30 imo
We're currently at less than 1. Forecast is less than 1.5.
I'm happy to give DA a chance to see what he can do.
In order to value it on a PE of 20 don’t we need to see evidence of growth
I think the 15 million ebitda needs to be growing at 20% per annum to support growth valuation
Thanks Porky, HNY sounds like a distant memory now. I'm sure we'll get called out again for talking to ourselves. Yeah maybe we'll see each other at the £54 party, finally quash all those accusations.
Happy New Year to you DRB, although now feels like a distant memory..
How is my brother from another mother?
Still banging the drum, fair play to you..
CO won't have it we are two different people, even when we both posted at exactly the same time just before Christmas, mind you having to work two keyboards at the same time took some practice :0
Sorry you missed the cruise... joking apart would be great to meet you one day, I love your energy and your research is top draw.
Anyhow, he can think what he likes...
You could argue it's an oversold recovery play now, £130m mcap down here, yet £101m cash at Bank and delivered £36m EBITDA on the year. Bloody ridiculous, you couldn't make it up, but always has been since the shorter's moved in and SH Comms is poor to defend. But of course at some point short's do need to be brought back.
Numis in with BUY rating and £4.10 Target has to help, heck that's double your money. They don't put their name to something and put out a BUY rating in a business they don't trust.
Anyhow, keep up the good fight, Once DHSC finally gets closed off the picture will be materially better but you know that anyhow.
Take Care
Pork's
Byp, the plan would be to spend it yes. £100m cash just loses value sat there. When they spend it they can start growing that annual bottom line figure I was talking about. The more that grows the quicker we get to £4, then £8 and so on. You decide what to do based on your research. I've done mine and whilst I weren't happy with H2 results the SP has dropped further than I could've imagined which has more than offset the H2 results. Imo
Thanks Sharestack. A lesson learnt indeed is to act on my own convictions in the future. At least I know I’m right 99 percent of the time, that’s a good takeaway at least.
Covidop, my comments arn't intended to encourage you to buy or sell. You should make those decisions based on your own research. My comments are purely for discussion points.
In hindsight
Gsk
Lloyd's
Dlg
Vodafone
Glencore
Would of been a better investment
BYP....if you are so learned, why the the following comment "ISAs and SIPPs down the drain" You're obviously not as astute as you think you are.
David Allmond was the chief commercial officer at Amryt, what’s that got to do with his CEO role at Novacyt? It’s like ignoring Dave Allmond now and saying it’s all on Guillermo Raimondo to save us.
There is so much **** being talked on here.
Share price is in the gutter and unlikely to move up significantly at all until they start communicating and delivering on a long term strategy. However if you can wait, then even an idiot should have half a chance of creating a long term future with the cash reserves they have.
Nothing to do but wait.
No way I am buying any more though, and I won’t be fooled by DRB aka Porky about great value prices. That story has been told all the way down from £8! Look at the mess that got many into!
Sharestack…..it’s quite common to use a sipps, ISA, or share dealing account. Some people spreadbet, some place T20s which is probably even more risky. Some people short.
You are probably jumping to the conclusion that all my pension is in a single sipps and not in a company pension scheme or I have only one ISA account. Sounds like you don’t know much about how people can trade or you more likely you just wanted to have a quick little bite due to my factual posts. Maybe green bin me and get some fluffy pretend made up rumours from the ramping crew. Most who have all now left NCYT.
@BYP......you used your SIPP to invest in an AIM share? Is that what you are saying? And you expect people to take you seriously!
neilrich3,your post at 19.20 pm,can you repost every hour to shut the non believers up.GLA.
DRB…..a bag from here? We have been de-bagged in only 17 trading days! I’ve lost way too much to care about £4 or £8 per share for that matter. ISAs and SIPPs down the drain. There is no chance of those prices ever returning. The company will spend that £100m in no time.
If DA had a philanthropist moment tomorrow and gave all of our cash away, we would be valued the same as ODX and ABX.
Just let that sink in.
My point exactly Neil. That's why I'll try to buy what I can. I've committed way more than I wanted to with ncyt but if I was willing to buy at multiples of where we are today then missing these prices would be a regret. Nothing is guaranteed on AIM and I am aware that the risk is mine and so is the responsibility.
Let's take my forecast one step further and say we spend the £100m cash in order to achieve the consistent £15m EBITDA. So now we just have £300mcap or £4.22. More in line with Numis and still more than a bag from these prices.
Annual £15m EBITDA does not fit with the target for becoming a Mid Cap. I guess once we factor in new products, new markets, global expansion, possible M&A.....anything is possible.
David's previous company experienced rapid growth in revenue under his tenure:
Amyrt Pharma Revenue:
2017 $1.5m
2018 $16.5m
2019 $58.1m
2020 $182.6
2021 $224m (est)
2022 $341.1m (est)
Don't for one moment believe that David is targeting £50m annual revenue for Novacyt.
Byp, let's call it a day. I have nothing against you. We all are sick and tired of this company.
Appreciate that PI100. Fwiw you are correct. The Porky accusations get a little annoying after several months.
I get we're all under water here but a profit making company with £100m cash at a EV of less than £30m is ludicrous. The SP could do anything tomorrow but if it does go down to 150 then I'll be scraping whatever I can together to make a purchase. Imo it is a temporary short term obliteration of the SP due primarily to sentiment. It's more than priced in now so in the very near future I expect to see some blue days.
DRB your optimism is a shining light here. Fwiw I don’t think you’re porky or a ramper, but struggle to share the same enthusiasm!
Yes Nellie, I think he has anger management problems