Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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'Without Covid Testing, I'd say it's worth what it was pre-covid, which is about 10p a share. **I** believe that covid is here for a long time, but the market seems to disagree with me...'
It's pointless saying that. You can't just discount the pandemic. I assume you mean, if the pandemic never happened we would still be in debt with very little cash and £10m sales. Possibly but the pandemic did happen. It's a bit like saying if Jeff Bezos was never born Amazon would be worthless. Well yes but what is your point CaneToad
'Without Covid Testing, I'd say it's worth what it was pre-covid, which is about 10p a share. **I** believe that covid is here for a long time, but the market seems to disagree with me...'
You are joking, right? You must be. No high margin business on the face of the earth could have no debt and £100m cash and be valued at £9m (pre-covid valuation). They were valued at £9m because they had large debts and no ability to raise money as the share price was so low, the sort of capital they now have would change the fortunes of EVERY aim company.
I don't think this is a sure bet by any means but it would take a MONUMENTAL f up to ever be valued what they were pre covid. Covid is a once in a century event and novacyt were easily the UK's biggest winners.
@HarChris: "Mr Big summed it up better than me. There are more exciting stocks on AIM but at this price it is about as low risk as it gets."
Without Covid Testing, I'd say it's worth what it was pre-covid, which is about 10p a share. **I** believe that covid is here for a long time, but the market seems to disagree with me...
@HarChris: "It will end 2021 with zero debt and about £100m cash. "
I get that. The valuation is based on 'future' earninsg though. Without covid, the earnings were a tiny fraction of today. The current cash balance could easily disappear into staff costs and R&D, e.g. corporate bonuses. Personally, I think covid is here for a very long time, probably forever. The fact that they've now got a big sales team in the US an contacts with the Who tells that story. The problem is that it's being gamed like a casino. It's too risky for funds to invest in at the moment. We need better clarity on the future.
Mr Big summed it up better than me. There are more exciting stocks on AIM but at this price it is about as low risk as it gets. Right now the worst case scenario in the short term is covid revenue drying up and the company being left with £100m to leverage the new relationships, distribution channels and bolstered workforce to build out this business- the BOD is far more experienced than it was pre covid and they are pushing hard to become global leaders in point of care testing as well as leading the way in bioinformatics.
If that is more or less the worst possible outcome it really isn't that bad.
The best outcome is the covid/multiplex cash cow continuing for many years still, the DHSC dispute resolving in our favour adding millions to the cash pile + all that listed above. In that scenario we cover the current mcap just by cash alone by mid next year (assuming no acquisitions)
Well in the simplest of terms CaneToad, this business ended 2019 with £1m cash and £7m debt (something like that).
It will end 2021 with zero debt and about £100m cash. Whatever it was before it won't be after, ANY high margin company that sees that sort of financial uplift is materially changed for the foreseeable.
Where it will be in 2025 of course is still unknown. On either extreme it might f*** the whole thing up and end up close to where it started or it might be a leading diagnostics player that eventually gets bought out in the billions. We don't know where it ends up on that spectrum but we do know it's not going to shrink back next year to the minnow it was pre covid.
The big question is - how long is covid testing going to last. I think it's here to stay for a very long time - you get the symptoms, you get a test to see if it's covid/flu/rsv. Even if covid becomes just another cold by this time next year. Current testing regime in the UK is *******s. The rest of the world seems to be similar.
The covid cash cow is not dead yet.
The rest of the diagnostics are probably worth more as a takeover target than as a direct cash earner for the company.
"Uninvestable" is not a term I'd apply here - on the contrary, the company is generating cash, is very cash-rich and has excellent R&D to cash in on future opportunities. It's frustrating as f.ck that sp keeps falling, but the fundamentals are as good as they get.
Downside is very limited, upside is infinity and beyond. This is better than almost anything on AIM. Sure, you get companies with better upside prospects but that's almost always offset by crippling downside and the need to constantly dilute to inject cash.
@Lubumbashi: "This is not a Covid share any more. The Covid phase ran out a year ago and lots of people made a lot of money, well done, and well done GM for recognising opportunity. NCYT is now back to being a leading diagnostics company."
I'm trying to understand the implications of what you're saying. From what I can see, pre-covid, this share was worth ~10p.
It's becoming a speculative play-thing of leveraged day-traders at the moment, rather than an investable company. What am I missing? FYI: I'm long/underwater. Highly unlikely to buy any more shares until I understand where the company is going and for this dreadful UK contract disaster to be resolved. That sounds like a total managment disaster on the NCYT side from what I can tell.
This is not a Covid share any more. The Covid phase ran out a year ago and lots of people made a lot of money, well done, and well done GM for recognising opportunity. NCYT is now back to being a leading diagnostics company. Look at the underlying fundamentals and decide if you are here as a true investor or someone who is selling their own book and still trying to make a quick buck out of Covid. The BoD knows where this company is going. The obvious exit plan is a buy out, which is what I am hoping for and hopefully will make the Covid profits look silly.