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Why is no one picking up the comment re m&a n the rns? Small companies with 100m on the balance sheet dont just sit there and cuddle that 100m.
We could make an acquisition of a company adding another 10m of ebitda with a click of the fingers. Do people just think that 100m sits there forever and we don’t invest it?
I don't expect it will be horizontal like that Wilson. It will be U shaped I would think or maybe just \ diagnally down.
Simply me I concur covid revs predicted at 3.5 mil a month going forward!!!!!
Yes, thank you simplyme. The maths was too quick.
Let's call it £60m round numbers.
That's £18m EBITDA
Mcap now £135m so EV £34m
Still works out at roughly 2 X EBITDA. That's with a really prudent fcast and a really low P/e ratio. Crazy price this
Your £48m Covid figure is wrong as Covid will go down 50% - the £96m revenue is including £13m noncovid so covid revenue is £41m next year
Very quick maths here,
FY22,
£48m covid
£14m non covid
+ Q4 additional non covid let's say £3m for roundings
Total FY22 revenue guidance £65m
Some admin costs will have to go so let's assume a EBITDA margin of 30% = approx £20m
£2 per share = mcap of £140m less cash = EV of £40m
So trading at 2 X EV, with £100m to help significantly improve those numbers.
BS net assets were £140m in H1. It's not clear what the bottom line will be in the Auditored accounts but even if we break even then at £2 we are valued at net assets which btw gives no value to future revenues.
The market has gone crazy but presenting an amazing opportunity imo.
They pretty much blew it really. Revenues from non covid starting in Q422 (if indeed they do come online) is laughable and can't plug a pin prick let alone a gaping 43% group revenue (86%/2). What have they been doing for a year? 40m dispute could take years.
When will this company turn around and start revenue growth again? Looking at least 3 years out, and there's no guarantee of non-covid products being a hit. It's all risk from here with very little reward.
Such a shame. They needed a much more aggressive board to make some key acquisitions and pivot away from covid much faster. Hoarding cash is ridiculous at this point, just prolonging the inevitable. Death by a thousand cuts, or out with a blaze of glory. I prefer the latter.
Of course, death by a thousand cuts isn't all that bad for those who can sustain a salary for failure for at least another decade. The 100m is pretty much their salary for the next 20 years.
Soder -
What this share needs is for DA to realise that " delivering value to our shareholders" cannot be achieved by starving the shareholders of information for 6 months at a time.
Shorters abound when sp climbs, and this being AIM, we cannot maintain the sp without fresh info. -
Please advise your remedy David.
That's all you need the square onion brigade loading up with shares.
Stripping out cash (and asusming we get nothing back from DHSC) then we are currently valued at c£40m as a company lol. Couldn't be more relaxed personally, its trading below its Net assets now substantially with no debt and profititable sales. no brainer this will get bought out now.
someone just bought 1% of the company in france
I also don't agree with you. Period on period revenue growth is nearly always behind the exponential rises on AIM. Obviously novacyt can't do that but less than expected revenue is still a downer.
As I said it's what traders use, they don't care about the long term fundamentals... but this price action is just amazing to observe.
I don’t agree. The mkt for Novacyt shares is distorted by a large holding of get rich quick Financially illiterate spivs at moment. They are now selling. That is a good thing. This stock needs that so badly. It needs investors not dream chasers.
Soder on AIM revenue is the big figure that traders get excited about...
Obviously in the end it doesn't keep the lights on but it's what sentiment is based around.
Crazy, crazy valuation right now.
Problem is the market doesn’t trust them to spend it wisely.
It’s really not a mixed bag. Cash is cash is cash is cash.
Covid was not going to be around forever. Who didn’t know that?
MIxed bag of an RNS, but cash in bank and movement to market led company is promising.
Going to be a tough morning, but expecting a bounce, although not a big one. Fundamentals versus SP now way out of balance, but sentiment extremely low.
Soder
· Group gross margin before exceptional items is expected to be in the region of 70% ;o)
Hopefully this will get rid of the covid get rich quick dream chasers. This stock needs that money to leave. That’s over.
When that happens you will get some normality return and people will start to value what is left. And what is left? 100m of cash optionality. A good reputation. A strong global footprint. Decent product suite with innovation and the heart.
IMO that investible as they have so much optionality here to be ambitious.
To all the financially illiterate, get rich quick on the aim casino muppets….bye bye. You won’t be missed. Go back to Bitcoin.
To everyone else. You are left with a company with 100m of cash, a new ceo, a new strategy, a company trading at 1.8x this years ebitda and 3.6x next years. If any of the future strategy enables this company to maintain a 20-30m ebitda beyond 2022 and going forward without burning all the cash then this stock is going to be meaningfully higher.
This IS the end of covid. This IS the beginning for Novacyt.