The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Just 11 trading days left to the new tax year ...
The hare is on the move !!!
I said last year this is a 10x bagger in the making mate - it's just timing but the fundamentals, current weak Neodymium pricing notwithstanding, are all there - every duck is lining up nicely.
If you are 25% right I will be a happy boy.
Just don't see why the market can't see it....yet.
Good buying opp though as per Mr Trager I am adding where I can.
Did you notice Cotec are in closed period, would suggest MKA are in similar mode.
LW that's my end game here
Why I am not overly worried about the short term cash position, if we raised at group level (even at 6p lets just say to remain unbiased) is £1m dilution really that much of a disaster? It's less than 10% of the group, so the market cap goes to £16m instead of £15m... big deal, we still would own
- 40% of the US JV
- 80% of the UK operations
- 60% rising to 90% of the German operations
- X amount of any new business (Canada, ME, Japan)
Let's say we get to 100t/pa by the end of 2024 (so 2025 would be a FY or 100t/pa scaling up) at minimum that would be £5m GBP in revenues at today's NdPr pricing, that's not to say we could receive much more for creating the finished (approved) magnets
If the German plant starts operating in 2025, then by the end of 2025 you've got two plants producing 100/tpa minimum (~£10m+ revenues)
The US plants could be fully funded by then, or if not fully funded using an IPO and the blueprints / business model from UK and Germany? How much would a £10m PA business that has three new plants fully funded (taking it to maybe £30m PA?) IPO for in the US? I would be shocked if it were less than $150m USD.
We would currently own at least 40% of that IPO (packaging it all up could take us back to 50% perhaps?) that's $75m USD, and that's if it IPO'd at $150m - by that stage it could IPO for much more (Peers are $300m+)
That IPO alone would be a 500% return on our current shareholding
Now if we move to refining (EU just passed a bill for 40% refining) with Grupa in Poland "Pulawy" how much is this worth to the business?
Lynas have received nearly $300m USD to build the exact same plant in the US
The EU has funded one plant in the pipeline in Estonia, and maybe one more in France - so there's tons of room for more processing plants
If our Pulawy project is accepted in the next 15 months (new EU timeframes now for processing) how much value does that add to MKA if the project will likely receive $100-200m in funding? That alone would surely push our share price up to Pensana levels at minimum (mine and processing plant) which is trading currently at £85m GBP (a 600% return from our current share price)
Now you add in Songwe economics, which as per the DFS they estimate (post MDA) that Pulawy if it were in operation, would improve the Songwe economics by 35% (not having to process in China for example) what would an MDA and investment in Songwe do to our share price? Maximised by Pulawy? £50m cap, £100m cap? Again another 600-700% rise
So if all goes to plan
Maginito could add pre-IPO 6-700% to the SP
Pulawy could add, if similar funding like in the US occurs, a 5-600% rise in SP
MDA and funding for Songwe, again 500%+ to the SP from this level
MDA, Funding for Songwe, Pulawy and a Maginito IPO in Q425,2026 what price do you put on all that?
It is really not out of the Q to see this 10x or more in the next 12-18 months, I've said it before and been wrong b
Watch it if you haven't already. The Magnito arm and partnership with Cotec are an absolute sleeping giant.
People will wake up soon, all they see is a miner but its so much more. 1-2 years this will be generating revenues from recycling alone.
Did anyone also pick up on the intent to merge all hypromag business partnerships under a global entity and float in the US. I know Mr Treger is an energiser bunny but he could see that happening in 2 years.
I am watching the video as I write this but assuming he means total stake in magnito and not just the US hypermag project which is 50:50 (if both parties decide it goes ahead, lol, as if its not a given already)
Lots of positive news, MDA is now a nice to have Cherry imho in the short term.
This venture gives financial derisk on its own
Says 50/50 on the rns 3rd January so not sure why he said 60/40 unless he jumped the gun on some news?
He also said they own the majority of the US business where there is a lot of value but isn’t it 50/50?
Very interesting words at the end we would need to collapse all into one 🤔
https://events.6ix.com/preview/cotec-market-update-2?utm_campaign=When+Event+Replay+Available+Email+to+registrants&utm_content=%5BCopy%5D+When+Event+Replay+Available+Email+to+invitees&utm_medium=transactional_message&utm_source=email
A little lower for Neodymium perhaps but the timing re the EU's CRMA is notable to say the least and, yes, very interesting that China, on the very day of the CRMA, saw fit to tell the EU to watch themselves:
https://x.com/bonker_99/status/1770164743170326574?s=20
Interesting.
Have asked my China guy to give it a look for any "vibe" but it's interesting they felt the need to respond ...
Another game changer...
MKA recycling in Germany H2 24. Polish processing plant DFS next year.
All coming together. Expecting to see more interest here going forward and strategic investment
Not at all, been watching a while and want to buy in. Only question for me is whether there is a cash raise coming and thoughts on that by much more knowledgeable LTHs is helpful. Got some helpful feedback thanks .
Funny how you get these random posters who have only commented 3 times, x2 today out of the blue re cash burn.
Strange folk about with agendas that trigger when an sp rises. Almost as if they are paid to spread the FUD hmmm. Ask yourself why
Burn rate is not the same, big chunk was environment report and money needed for magneto to get grants in Germany from memory.
In their video on website I am sure they said money for 12 months after June.
Also states funding preference of grants and strategic partners.
Assumed so, appreciate the journey you have had. I could of course get this wrong but I am more confident here than with a lot of other cos in this market space.
I continue to add, got a few more earlier.
£4m June
£ cash in June and £2m in September, must be running on fumes by now unless I missed something?
You know what Lewis, you’re absolutely right. Pure frustration coming out there and it’s not adding anything but a laugh. I very much believe in this company and I’m going nowhere.
That whyafrica article says Lotus' MDA has been signed...
Damned if they do or dont Tuff? If you have lost sight of this opportunity why not just move on yo another stock.
I'm all for debate but you are at the level of passive cynicism.
Side note: MKA should be shouting about the 3000 magnets and plans for middle East, not just cotec.
PR needs work. Or is there a broader announcement pending. I think do. Feels akin to closed period given the low sp discounting MDA completely and no director buys.
My take is it will move up quickly soon