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Thank you
All a bit clearer now
Yes Alexios, they are also saying its currently not commercial and giving it a CoS.......which means any value they assign to it is risk weighted down to a lower value.
Flow the oil, declare commercial.....and the risk weighting is removed and the allocated price per share goes up significantly.
This is the basics of how you value an oil company if you wish to use risked values.............. Block V Raptors have risked values and they dont even have proven oil yet...........
Yes I had a look and even Edison are not giving 18p for Heron
Do an NPV10 calculation.
I mean..........your argument started by saying that MATD, with a producing well if Heron-1 flows, would have Prospective Resources of 25 MMBO.............. how can you have it all as PROSPECTIVE if you are already producing ???????????
Take a look at the NPV10 values in the presentations.
I think you have been looking at too many explorers who are not producing, who have found oil in the middle of nowhere with zero production.
We are talking a valuation here for MATD who will be PRODUCING oil (all being well) from a proven oil field. So why would you be talking oil in the ground values for the middle of the sea in the middle of nowhere with a bad PSC and loads of tax to be paid.................
NPV10 - the figures are out there.
The market is currently valuing Heron as nothing, as non-commercial.......... that will all change, massively, if the well flows and all being well by year end Heron will be on test production generating cash flow.
Can you show the calculations for 18p to MATD for 25mmbbls Prospective Resources please Proselenes.
I must be missing something and not seing the obvious what you see
Please help me and others from the mystery
Even market doesn't see it and grossly undervalues the play
Firstly, we are talking onshore. Secondly we are talking the Mongolian PSC terms.......one of the best PSC terms in the world. This is super cheap to develop and highly valuable oil. This is not offshore middle of nowhere not going to be developed in the next 10 years oil
NPV10 value for a 25 MMBO size would be circa 18p a share. NPV10 value for a 40MMBO size would be circa 32p a share.
Show us how did you arrive with 18p Heron valuation please
I am probably missing something
25mmbbls Prospective Resources at Heron
Resources are valued at $0.5-1/bbl not $4.75/bbl you came up with
That's 2P Reserves valuation per barrel you came up with which is wrong and any oil guy will tell you this
Alexios, they value it as RISKED 6p.
RISKED means risking it as being UNCOMMERCIAL......... all prospects are RISK WEIGHTED until they are proven.
This is why they assigned RISKED values to the Raptors in Block V - which dont even have known oil yet.
Once Heron-1 flows then Edison will changed the RISKED value.........and it will rise significantly from 6p.
Come on, are you saying you really dont know about risked values ??????
Pro,
You explained it well. Thanks for that.
From the past company presentation, even 10MMbo in Block XX is economic (commercial). Heron-1 alone was upgraded to 25MMbo from 16MMbo. Overall estimates from wider Heron area were quoted around 75MMbo (past RNS).
So future overall production from Heron could be lot higher with quick monetization too and early cashflow.
Some de-rampers constantly try to create confusion for their own agendas. Each to their own.
Prospective Resources of 25mmbbls at Heron
Move this figure into 2P Reserves first(when commercial flowrates are established and Heron is appraised by further wells to book 2P Reserves) only then you can talk about $4/bbl valuation. This 25mmbbls figure is normally reduced by at least 50%.
Edison value Heron at 6p you are coming up with 18p ha
You must be out of your depths at times IMO
Proselenes,
How do you arrive with 18p Heron with 25mmbbls???
Lockyer, there is no reason for Mike not to now be allowed to be as positive as he wants. Therefore, I expect the new few RNS to be very very positive - lets just say, he might now have his localized restraining chains removed............
Hi Pro
That makes sense to me.
From experience, knowing how cautious MB has been in his previous RNS releases to date, assuming Heron is commercial, would you expect the news release to state both the BOPD expectations and the MMBO potential of Heron? My concern for MATD at present is not necessarily if Heron has Commercial Oil (as I'm over 75% certain it will do) it's whether Mike can release a POSITIVE RNS that will get the market's juices flowing and learn from their mistakes from the somewhat downbeat first one regarding Heron.
Starting with... "Petro Matad are delighted to announce...."
Obelix..........the flow rate does not matter...........the amount of oil in the reservoir does.
Think of it like 100 pounds in a bank account.
If you can withdraw 1 pound a day its worth 100 pounds
If you can withdraw 50 pounds a day its worth 100 pounds.
The value is the value.........if Heron is 25 MMBO its worth 18p a share........if Heron is 40 MMBO its worth 32p a share..........
The flow rate will only affect the amount of money that MATD can borrow from the bank to develop it......the higher the flow rate, the quicker the cash comes, the more they can borrow.
What the share price does is all about the size of Heron.......how many barrels of oil in total in the reservoir........25 MMBO or more or less. The rate of flow is a sideshow, all we need is that it flows and is declared commercial.
Hey Obleix
That's the million dollar question my friend... There are far more knowledgeable people than myself on this board but I believe that we have enough support to reach the 8-9p range fairly quickly. It won't necessarily be in one or two days, I think we will see an initial increase of between 65-80% on good results with further rises of 10-15% each week. Eventually leading to news regarding Petro China farm in which will see us hit 12/13p.
Still sticking my neck out and going for 15-18p by Xmas!
Let's say: 200 barrels of oil per day. How much our share price will be? Any idea?