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My understanding is that the drill mud brings up the rock chips as they're drilled out. These rock chips are studied at surface and logged. If they are oil bearing then they should be able to tell from these rock chips. These intervals will then be tested later on to see if they flow properly.
Yoghurt posted some more detailed stuff last night.
What do you think the sp will be if there is a negative outcome on the SL drill? It's a wildcat drill after all and i suspect the reason some are selling. That's the gamble here. Do you invest now and risk a big fall for the chance of a big rise or do you wait and see and hope you can buy at a lower price for the WH drill. Tricky.
We're only 4 weeks into a 10 week drill...
Was hoping we'd be in double figures but as with all oil stocks 3-4 weeks before target depth the SP starts to head north.
Still can't understand why anyone would sell now but they must have their reasons.
Mid August this will start to head north on anticipation. The herd will arrive and drive it further. Any positive outcome will see the SP well above 30p..
Morning Ronin1, hope all well at your end, thank you for your estimates it is appreciated, will they be able to tell if there’s oil straight away, why I ask is because I’ve also been watching videos on drilling and there saying they line the hole then brake into it once the valves are in place , thank you for your time . Atb
This basin almost occupies the whole territory of Middle Gobi (Dundgovi) province and is composed numerous depressions and sub basins with a territory of 260 kms x 150 kms. Early Cretaceous age sedimentary rock is distributed in abundance in Middle Gobi basin. A number of oil shale deposits and occurrence have been identified in its Western, Northern and Undur shil sub basins. Oil shale of this basin was explored during the socialist era and quality research was carried out more than any other basins. Oil content of some oil shale deposits here is regarded to be very high. from this article http://www.oilmongolia.com/1a
Clear evidence of the potential for a working petroleum system gathered by geoscientists from Petro Matad has highlighted the opportunity for large discoveries.
Across large areas of Block IV and V, fieldwork has proven the existence of syn-rift Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous lacustrine organic-rich shales interbedded with sandstones in the Shine Khudag Formation. TOC of samples in the Khoid Ulaan Bulag oil shale, with a net shale thickness of 265m, can range from 1.7% to 27% type I-II kerogen, and has a maximum HI of 800. The thickness and quality can vary, so that at Tsagaan Suvarga the average TOC is 5.3% (1.7–10.6%), but net thickness is 900m and HI reaches 900.
At almost every outcrop, many of which may have been deposited in a marginal lake setting, source rock quality is sufficient to result in significant generation if mature. Outcrop maturity averages around 0.6% VR, marginally mature for generation. Basin modeling, however, suggests that in much of the subsurface the source will be mature, with onset of generation in the early Cretaceous following syn-rift subsidence and burial.
Across Block IV and V, fieldwork has proven the existence of syn-rift Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous lacustrine organic-rich shales interbedded with sandstones. (Source: Petro Matad)
Syn-rift lacustrine oil shale/source rock, Khoid Ulaan Bulag locality. (Source: Petro Matad)
Close-up view of syn-rift lacustrine oil shale/source rock, Khoid Ulaan Bulag locality, illustrating the richness of the organic layers. (Source: Petro Matad)
Lacustrine oil shale/source rock being ignited over a gas burner. (Source: Petro Matad)
Potential reservoir rocks of the syn-rift megasequence are also extensive in outcrop. Clean fluvio-deltaic sandstones of the Tsagaantsav or Shine Khudag Formations, with original porosities ranging from 10-30%, are extensive. These are often similar in age to the shales, and are sometimes even interbedded with them. Evidence of secondary quartz overgrowth or clay mineralization is rare, and porosity is preserved, even at depth in the stratigraphic boreholes.
Surface hydrocarbon seepages have not been observed to date, but core from the deepest stratigraphic borehole, TSC-1 in Block V, which was the only test to reach the syn-rift section, contained oil staining. Fluid inclusion studies also revealed significant hydrocarbon inclusions from a range of core and outcrop samples. These observations, plus the positive analogs from China and the producing basins in Mongolia, all point to the very high probability of a working syn-rift petroleum system. The pre-rift is in a much less advanced stage of evaluation, and is currently unproven in Mongolia. In China, however, this megasequence is a major oil and gas producer in such basins as the Tarim, Jun
"The organic-rich shales of Mongolia are thermally immature near the surface, locally forming combustible oil shale, but reach oil maturity (maximum Ro of 0.8 to 1.0%) in deeper areas ranging from 7,000 to 8,000 ft."
"Within the 4,690-mi2 high-graded prospective area of the Unegt and Zuunbayan troughs in the East Gobi Basin, the Lower Cretaceous Tsagaantsav Formation contains an estimated 300 ft (net) of organic-rich lacustrine shale at an average depth of 8,000 ft. TOC averages an estimated 4.0% and is oil-prone (Ro averaging 0.8%). "
* 55 TCF (gas). * 85 billion barrels of risked shale gas and shale oil in place, * Oil gravity averages 28° API
Maybe I'm being naive but I'm thinking they can drill this to target depth without an RNS or a leak. And then announce news on completion as the RNS said. Significant volume should give away any leak either way.
Great post. Agree with what you outlined.
I think they should encounter Oil shows in the deeper zones. Does not mean there is no Oil from shallower targets. Both could be Oil bearing.
The US EIA report that I looked at pointed out that deeper zones are more likely to be Oil rich and specifically quoted 8000-10000 feet (i.e. c.2400 to 3000 metres). On my phone...so don't have the exact content. Will post bit later.