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If he has he must be short of brain power, who in their right mind would go short at this time. The only thing he will be short of will be his cash. Still his decision, brave man!
Fundy, We have reserved the Top ramp position for you soon as you get in....LoL ....Matd is the proxy National Oil company of Mongolia... No one can ever beat that line from you :-)
In the next two years?
Fundy - your "last post until" pre-announcements have proven to be anything but reliable - which is why we expect you to show on this board up earlier than you say. But as I've said many times before: You just can't shake it.
So it's all hot air from Fund then.He has no serious belief or conviction in his himself to profit from what he perceives as certain in that WH will not spud and the sp will to crash to 3p..Exactly as I thought.Lots of hot air but nothing behind it.
He will not back his research & conviction up with a single penny of his own money - whereas I have put my money where my mouth is and placed £16,000 on Matad spudding in October.
I also noted the silence on his 12.11 scaremongering post when he stated there are only small drills left after WH, poor ole Fund forgot about Fox targetting 200mb.
The Chessmaster knows how to flush out his quarry !
Lol good luck but my calculations and research say they will delay the drill, and Matd history of delays and no spud date given for WH is a huge red flag imo, last post from me now until the next rns whatever that may be so ramp away folks
Fox Is massive with 200 million barrels. Only looks small compared to the beasts 480m barrels
Poor Ole Fund's been Flushed Out !
If he says he's not short after telling everyone WH is not going to spud and the shareprice will fall 50%, then he simply does not believe his own guff - otherwise he would happily make a quick 50% profit.....On the other hand if he says he is short ( based on his conviction & research) then he's going to look very silly when WH Spud's in a week or twos time and lose some money too?
So which one is it Fundy? And are you still convinced that all the drills after WH are small as you stated in your 12.11 post ? (Foxy forget me not )
That video has been posted more than 10 times for everyone to see. I would let investors hold on to old news with broad contingency. There is still time. I expect an RNS on the 15th October or earlier to confirm spud. This gives sufficient time to drill and log data before the winter season begins.
I have no doubts we will spud.
Internal CoS for WH-1 is actually 20%. So the Elephant discovery of 2018 boils down to two last chances, CHAR with Prospect S and MATD with Wild Horse-1.
Success case upside is greater on MATD as the prospect is 100% owned and the PSC terms are superb.
A mere 150 million barrel recoverable size find on Block IV for MATD would have an NPV10 of 1.27 billion US$ thanks to low cost of development wells, easy trucking and very good PSC terms ** (that value will be higher now due to rising oil prices)
NPV10 based on Economics run at Dec ‘17 Forward Curve prices: 2018 $63.67/bbl, 2019 $60.58, 2020 $58.56, 2021 $57.62, 2022 $57.25, 2023 $57.22, 2024+ 2% Esc
Well Name: Wild Horse-1 Block IV
Targeting 480 million barrels recoverable (mid case) 100% owned
Additional follow on prospects of 750 million barrels rec. (900 million rec. high case) derkisked in the Wild Horse area if Wild Horse-1 is a success.
Internal company estimates give 20% chance of success for Wild Horse-1
Wild Horse-2 appraisal well already permitted for, in the event of success.
Wild Horse-2 would drill into the other side of the WH lead in the event of a WH-1 discovery.
Due to analogous basin geology across the border in China there is a higher than frontier chance of success for frontier levels of potential
Notable Chinese productive basins include: Junggar Basin 10 Billion barrels recoverable, Songliao Basin 20 Billion barrels recoverable and Bohai-S. North China Basin with 40 Billion barrels recoverable.
Well defined 4-way dip structure and amplitude anomalies that are indicative of hydrocarbons. (Soft amplitude anomalies which conform to structure)
CEO Mike Buck comments that it is “A must drill well”. Royal Dutch Shell have told MATD they want to see Wild Horse-1 drilled.
Endorsed by Wood Mackenzie by their inclusion of Wild Horse-1 on their “one to watch wells in 2018” placing Petro Matad on a list alongside super majors like ENI and Repsol. The only onshore well to make it into the WoodMac list.
Sinopec state 25 days drilling time (in video www.dailymotion.com/video/x6u32kz )
** PSC terms (the important bit to value any discovery with)
0% Corporation Tax
Royalty: Block IV 8%
Costs of Exploration, Development, Operations and Transport can be recovered in the success case. The implication for this is that on any success, when coming to arrange finance, this puts the company in a very strong position as it can demonstrate it can repay debt out of Gross revenue rather than profits. Yes, that is remarkably excellent, even transportation costs to sell the oil are recoverable. Pretty much WOW.......... The whole lot, explo, dev, op, transport...all recoverable.
Contractor Profit oil split: Block IV 50% to 57%
You cannot really value an oil discovery unless you also know clearly the PSC terms, then you are able to get a real good read on the NPV10.
I will add the 25 days to drill from Sinopec comment video into an updated post.
Knowing that Fund's short is going to even better when this Spud's and if he hasn't gone short then he does not believe himself and is full of hot air.
Fund's here to make money, just like we are and his is sure WH won't spud and the sp will fall 50%.So he will be short and if he isn't then he simply does not believe in himself or his own research.
So Fund, you will of course be short Matad?
You are sure it won't spud based on your research and it's going to drop 50%.
So it must be a No Brainer that you are short, yes ?
Understand your sentiment but it wouldn't be the exact sam rig up time as they'll have learnt from the first rig up imho.
Thats how it is with any repeat construction or it is in my experience.
"The well is expected to take approximately 30-45 days to drill and log..." was the wording about WH on the 13th Feb 2018 RNS. Note the "and log" bit. 30 days minimum back then. Things have changed since then obviously.
Fundy, its very naive of you to assume WH will drill at the same speed as SL. It all depends on what they are drilling through.That's just basic common sense.
Fund says in his scaremongering 12.11 post...that the only targets left (after WH) are small prospects "...Once again, Fund is totally wrong, one cannot consider the Fox prospect targeting 200mb a small prospect ? It's worth a shopping $2 Billion NPV to Matad if they strike the target, do you really consider that small Fundy ?
Your info on Petro Matad is all over the show Fund, your out of date on your drilling times for Wild Horse & you haven't got a clue about the upcoming drills, which you say are all only small.
Your posts are ill-founded,ill-researched, nothing more than badly researched scaremongering for your elusive 3p price target.
Petro Matad is the Undisputed Most Exciting Oil Play on the London Stock Exchange! Fact !
And btw an rns is the official company guidance not an interview legally speaking the rns is what we follow not an interview comment
Nope the rns says 25 June that the rig is 35% rigged up, yet it took another two weeks before spud. Not facilites at the pad, it clearly says the rig is 35% rigged up in the rns. So that means to rig up on the pad it took them about 3 weeks on SL. It’s the same rig for WH so the same rig up time. We are going to have to agree to disagree, I dont believe they will spud WH this year due to my calculations and the reasons I have given, you believe they will so fair enough, guess my point is I cant buy Matd shares at this present time as the chance of it falling 40-50% on a delay rns is too high. I dont want my money tied up for 6 months at a 40-50% paper loss if WH is delayed, if you can live with that then I agree whether they drill this year or next doesn’t affect you, if your a LTH you can just chill but your posts make me think your not a long term holder as you don’t acknowledge the clear risk of a delay which could happen for a variety of reasons rig related or weather related AAOG delay shows what can happen
Fundy, yes........now, did the rig up take 3 weeks ? or the H&S check ? or the facilities at the pad ? or.........you assume that the 3 weeks was just the rig but it could have been a number of other things. Were all facilities on site, was everything ready in advance ? Who had to come from UB to sign off ? What delays were there that they "learned a lot" as the CEO says in his Conference Call after spudding SL-1 thats available to listen to.
SL-1 was a mobilization of all equipment for the 1st time, lots of learning done. Now they started work at WH-1 in August (6 weeks ago now) and they intended to make this a "seamless" move and rig up. So you should expect everything to be much faster this time.
As for Wh-1..............Sinopec estimated with the rig they are using the SL-1 would be 70 days.........it was. Sinopec estimate with their rig that WH-1 will be 25 days. Lets see. The RNS you refer to is from February 2018.
Here is a video from March 2018 (so its the latest and up to date info) where the CEO says Sinopec say 25 days. This therefore is the info which is up to date, not your February 2018 RNS.
Sinopec estimated and took 70 days at SL-1 as the geology is complex, lots of faulting.
Sinopec say WH-1 will be simple, benign geology and so 25 days.
Good post Pro, I agree if you are happy to hold until April/May 2019 for the WH drill then it doesn’t matter to you if there is a delay. I’m not a hater of Matd just by my calculations they won’t spud this year, it’s my opinion based on times it takes to deconstruct the rig, move it 450km on dirt tracks and then construct it at SL. It took two weeks to spud SL after the rig was 35% rigged up according to the rns, so do you agree that it took them 3 weeks to rig up at SL? So the same rig will take another 3 weeks to rig up at WH. The rns says 30-45 days to drill it, and it took them 73 days to drill 3000m at SL so that’s 24 days per 1000m. So if they drill WH at the same speed as SL it will take 45-48 days if we are going off the rns and the actual drill times at SL. 3 weeks to rig up 45-48 days to drill... tell me where my calculations are wrong because Matd themselves say up to 45 days in the rns and it’s fact it took over 2 weeks to rig up SL after it was already 35% rigged up, I’m not making these things up it’s all in the rns’s for ppl to work out for themselves there just isn’t enough time before the harsh winter weather hits imo
Here's the deal, its basically a 4/1 bet that could change your life, if you win$$$$, you may never have to work again, if you lose,your investment will fall 20% (as per SL) but from a higher price after the rise on spud.So those buying now cannot really lose and you still get another 4 drills after WH.What's not to like about that ?
It's a No Brainer unless you have No Brain like the doomsayers -who fail to comprehend that WH will spud in 2018 inspite of all the compelling evidence !
Petro Matad is the most Exciting Oil play on Aim ! Fact !
Fundraiser, the only person terrified of WH-1 spudding appears to be you. A non holder, hater of MATD.
As I said, I hold over a million shares and I do not care if WH-1 spuds in October, or November, or April 2019, or May 2019............. the potential oil is not going anywhere. I am no so poor as I need to sell my shares over winter for some cash. My shares are fully paid for, I hold them and if spud is this year or next - I will be holding them for WH-1 and Fox-1 and the 3 potential Block XX drills.............whats the issue ? Who cares ? If the share price goes down or up between now and WH-1 spudding, or between now and Fox-1 spudding............ that has no effect on me......... I have my shares and I am holding for the results........not the spud. Thats what investing is........buy in and wait for the news when the results of the drilling and logging are known. Does not matter when it happens.
Poor Fundy, he sounds more desperate with every post.
His drilling times are well off the mark,its 25 days, The shortest drill at 1850m.Ole Fundy should try to keep up with play here.....And I quote yet again from my report " according to internal sources the COS on Wild Horse is 20%" but you are free to go with whatever you like ;-)
Only around 1week to go now and Fundies 3p is gonna look very silly along with all his scaremongering ! I think he will disappear on spud but I really hope he doesn't so we can all have some fun reciting his posts about WH not spudding.
I have no concerns whatsoever about whether WH will Spud in 2018 as planned, Fundy and the other doomsayers are gonna look pretty stupid in around a weeks time when The Big One Spuds and the sp rises!
Ahhh now we are back to the old...........Why did not they not give an estimated date nonsense...............well, they have said they will inform the market when they spud. So thats it. Why do you, a non holder hater of MATD require a date ? I am holding well over a million MATD shares, I am relaxed and spud will be when spud will be.
So in comparison, fundy, you hate MATD, you hold no stock and you are anti-everything about MATD and yet.......you are demanding a spud date notice........... ??? Strange that.
Dont worry fundy, I will post the original post again before too long under ""Wild Horse - The info 2" so its back up the front and all your attempts to derail any real talk about MATD is lost............
Let me ask you this.........have Equinor/BP given a spud date for RN-1 ? Everyone on JOG wants to know, but they are not giving any date.......why is that ? Do most companies just get on with it, do most investors simply just wait for it............do most haters simply demand things that are not there, to give them something to moan about... LOL :)
Rampers are terrified of a cancelled WH drill as they know the damage it will cause, they are desperate for the price to rise so they can derisk before a potential delay rns, strange how Matd dont know when WH will spud strange how they can’t give an estimated date yet they gave one for SL, I wonder why. Keep the ramps coming Pro Lol