The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Decent rise to start the new year, hopefully omicron isn't as bad as first thought. could be some big staff shortages given the high infection rate.
Same to you too Barchid. Have a good one mate. The same to everyone else here too. A prosperous new year to all of us.
A very happy new year to all on this board, not to mention prosperous ?!
Indeed.
The sector is ripe for consolidation opportunities before the recovery kicks in.
Commonwealth Games in UK this year bound to give a boost.
And a prosperous new year to you all.
And a prosperous new year to
barchid, not MARS but very important to the topic of Covid. Apologies in advance to BB readers.
As a qualified Botanist, plant diseases have been prevalent and chemically controled since the 1960's. Plant breeders have tried to keep ahead of emerging diseases but have relied more and more on Chemical controls which have needed to advance. The potency of early chemicals lasted maybe 10-15 years until natural forces ( disease mutations) became resistant. The cycle of Plant breeding and Chemical resistance continued for almost 50 years until Breeders and Pathologists became aware the process was becoming unsustainable. A lot of head scratching until scientists at Cambridge and elsewhere observed from archived repositories of cereal varieties, that old varieties were are resistant to diseases now being seen in newer varieties. In essence and to some degree confirming Darwin and survival of the fittest, it became clear varieties which had developed over many generations, often in the wild, were stronger and very much more resilient. Breeders then began to use genes from the ancient varieties to provide levels of resistance. This has been successful to some degree. Do'nt confuse this use of genes with Genetically Modified (GM) which basically uses genetic material from other plant species. There is a significant difference.
The reason behind this illustration is to show how the Natural world can be manipulated by Man, but ultimately Nature will win. The current Pandemic will only go away when it is allowed to run it's natural, not what many want to hear for good reason. Can Man as a specie continue with perpetual controls over how we live our lives?
Here endeth the Sermon, and apologies to those who will disagree.
Back to MARS, how £6000 per pub is going to offset costs and provide profit is quite bewildering. It will help certainly and the small village pub ( if there are any left) managed by husband and wife may find some profit but not the big drinking houses with staff, power bills etc.
FD
Indeed, the "cure" seems worse than the infection.
We seem to have become a nation of bedwtters.
Charlie that is probably correct. As before it will only cover a proportion of costs, meanwhile Company's have to march time. Do'nt know which is worst, the Irish model ( close at 8.00pm) or opening restricted to out door drinking? Who the hell wants to drink outside at this time of year?
Sooner or later the powers that be will realise perpetual close downs is doing no one any good. I for one am sick and tired of the way this Pandemic is being handled almost promoted.
What happened with the Spanish Flu in 1918, folks got on with life, no one can live forever.
This may sound harsh to some but the effects of restrictions, mask wearing, lockdowns etc is doing more damage than Covid.
Can see the furlough scheme making its way back in, breweries been told to hang back on brewing/cask as foresee another wallop of restrictions coming
Could be something to do with extra dosh available for hospitality sector!
Anyone get the feeling something is afoot? Watching the trades, their is consistent underpinning buying. Should be pressure the other way given the dreaded virus and the political situation, but moving gently positively outperforming market for a few days now.
Are they talking to Carlsberg??
???? Schweppes who??
FD
To follow on from your point 2 re nav, post Findlay and a marking down of assets, that nav is much more likely to be in relation to reality, which even on its own gives some much needed confidence.
Have just returned home, listening to the car radio and Boris's Press conference, I sense we have worse to come. Boris will not commit but Patrick Whitty was quite emphatic regarding get togethers. I will be amazed if PW's words do not impact on the market tomorrow. On another topic, but related to debt, Financial commentators believe, against the increasing inflation rate, the BOE will not move interest rates tomorrow, but come the New Year will make a substantial increase, in comparitive terms.
MARS is between a rock and a hard place, income is going to struggle to maintain the debt reduction AA has promised. Hands are tied in respect of asset disposal.....the JV agreement requires MARS to retain a minimum of 50% of it Pubs. This cannot include Brains as they are subject to along term management agreement.
We cannot turn the clock backwards so looking forward and in the current climate, there at least 2 potential options.
1. Carlsberg buy our 40% of CMBC. I have always believed long term Carlsberg will achieve 100% of the Brewery. It is the way Carlsberg operate.
2. A generous predator comes along .
IMO the SP has not yet reached bottom. The one saving grace is NAV which currently stands at 58p/share. This is something to consider if a buyer!
I'm glad you've had some luck with one of your holdings. Sometimes, a nice little bonus can come from an unexpected source. A nice little early Christmas present for you perhaps?
Especially since MARS turned down 1.05 last year.
Hi Barchid. Yes, you have a point. That said, there's been a development with my SGC holding. It seems that the takeover by NEX may well to through. SP there has gone up.
Trent
My timing seems uncommonly good today, just now City a.m. have announced that Fortress has paid Patron an undisclosed sum for 100% of Punch taverns.
So perhaps we really should be re-evaluating our chances of an approach ?
Again just thinking out loud, but easier to make an approach when they are at a 60p's valuation rather than in the 80p's, for sure.
Trent
I see exactly where you are coming from & it has been a deflating experience seeing a once very decent company over stretch itself. Time can be a great healer, it can, of course, be an expensive option, we have to weigh things up as they affect us all in diferent ways & degrees.
Sorry not to be more cheerful, but these things can turn around when you least expect it which is what I was saying in my earlier mail, meantime they still sell lovely beer....
Hi Barchid. Im not sure what to make of proceedings here at the moment. My patience is beginning to wear thin with the limbo land we find ourselves to be in with Mars. I know the issues with Covid have done the company no favours whatsoever, but I've seen little evidence of adaptability to overcome these issues.
You may well know that I have shares in a company called Fulham Shore, a Pizza/Greek restaurant chain. They too have had the same issues as Mars with closure of outlets etc, but they have shown enough initiative to generate income from home deliveries, reduced admittance to premises when restrictions were lifted etc. Ok, they are a different animal to Marstons, but still, despite Marstons having the off sales from supermarkets to fall back on, I've seen very little from Mars to improve their lot.
I'm going to wait until the Christmas/new year trading figures come out to see what transpires. I hope that these figures are worth waiting for.
Gents
Certainly the back drop for MARS has worsened & we currently now hear no more fiction about "buying the dips", but oddly enough with the share now showing on a d v fn as a downward weekly breakout, now could be about the right time to have a little sniff ?
The hysterical suggestions of it being 10p higher by Friday (every blooming Friday) seem now like a distant memory & with so many of the "it can only go up from here" gang having left, or left licking their wounds, I wonder if the mid to low 60p's could be the time for a sober re-evaluation ?
Debt always was, and still is, the problem. But rates seem likely to stay low so the amount of cash needed to make a bid for the estate is easily able to be raised, consolidation is surely likely in this industry with alcohol use declining amongst the young & the older ones, like me, are a declining market anyway biologically !
Just thinking out loud here but the old saying, it's never as good as it looks & it's never as bad as it looks, could be proven right yet again ?
I've held mars for years but I never know, how they spin it forward. Yes of course maybe they will surprise Me this year
All.shares carry an element of risk don't they ChuChubbyBrown?