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Back in the 1970's restricted opening signalled the death knell for those cinemas which resorted to this measure as a hedge against poor business. I am sorry to see this happening in the pub trade.
Yes fair..I agree with your comments and also similar in that we had a quiz team for 15 years+ every Wednesday night in a local pub. The pub would always be rammed every Wednesday night for the quiz, but early this year the weekly quiz was abandoned due to dwindling numbers of people in the pub, especially over the past 12 months. Such a shame to see once busy and lively pubs become as you say an “empty property shell”
Jamie...in essence correct. It remains to be seen whether or not Justin Platt can work the oracle here and produce significant shareholder value. I did suggest some years ago when the writing for Pubs was firmly on the wall, the company needed to explore different business opportunities. It may be too late now and we are at great risk of becoming a Property Shell.
There is much news this morning regarding the dire state many pubs are facing. Many have restricted opening ( closed on Mondays and Tuesdays) and closing early 9.00pm and earlier. Lordy in my youth we never went to the Pub( usually nightly) until 9.00pm.
So much so that I’ve just sold £30k which is 75% of my long term holding in MARS , as I’ve decided to cut most of my losses (rightly or wrongly?) because I am now so disillusioned and can’t see where a major recovery in this share will come from. Genuinely Good luck to all still having a major holding here…., as I think this share will need it!
To put it in simple terms…If JDW (with very little debt) and the company is run efficiently, now find themselves struggling to make a decent profit and operating on wafer thin margins….then MARS who are saddled with a massive amount of debt and big loan interest payments) and not run as efficiently as JDW, with Generation Z (youth) and more middle age of today giving pubs a miss, I now struggle to see how this share can be turned around in the near future, without some major positive news or changes happening?
FD, as usual a fair and reasoned analysis by you of this currently disappointing investment. The rampers will certainly try to refute your comments but from what I have seen of the commerial property market (not in MARS area though, tbh), it is pretty glum & I see little reason that the hospitality premises on MARS balance sheet are likely to exceed in any meaningful way their valuations. Indeed I would not be surprised to see them written down at some point, but as I have said here many times, Mr Market is not always right but he has had a pretty good track record over the years.
Pubs themselves as a sector have certainly gone ex growth and your point re supermarket sales is exactly what I see amongst my circle of friends, I live in Docklands and the number of pubs which are still open there has apparently more than halved since the millenium. Those which are open are not busy either, for someone who has always enjoyed quaffing real ale with mates I find I am doing it less & less in a pub but much more in private dwellings.
Sorry to be negative but this is how I see it.
Wetherspoons have reported a hit on property values, something some here seem to believe MARS will see enhanced, doubtful if RICS commercial property report is accurate.
Tim Martin expects current year outcome to be "Reasonable", hardly a glowing remark in a sector that has and is facing serious headwinds.
Summer sports events, Euro Footbal, Olympics, cricket etc may add some value to the hospitality sector, however it should be viewed against the growing fo home consumption which only tends to benefit Supermarkets who screw suppliers down on margins.
Selling off more of the property estate will become increasing difficult as the JV with Carlsberg comes into play
Franchising could be a part of the solution, however too many Publicans have had their fingers burnt by the continued demise of Public Houses.
Yes I’m a bit more concerned for us now with the short term SP, after JDW’s average results which the markets reacted very badly to on Friday. A potential interest rate cut, some good weather and Euro 2024 in the early summer may all align to improve sales/profit and give us a much needed and long time coming, share price lift?…or we could just pray for a takeover offer to turn this share blue instead of looking at it in the Red most of the time lately! GLA.
JDW results today NOT good at all currently down 9%! Suspect they are affected by train strikes! If I was a JDW Shareholder I would see better value for growth here!
Hopefully with sales from the Brewery to come Marston on their next release will fair far better what with Christmas sales to come in and we should beat 6%! GLA.
Like the Curate's Egg good in parts. They do continue to warn of issues outside of commercial control which may affect performance going forward. At least they have debt under control.
Love him or hate him, Tim Martin does project his company in a way that benefits shareholders. Let's hope Justin is a similar character?
Let’s hope the JDW results and trading update is fairly upbeat Friday morning, as I’m sure this will in turn help us and give more confidence back into the “large pub chains” shares as a whole?
Gulf H -interesting what you have said and that could be why the Company said they had been looking into and experimenting with Franchise agreements with Landlords which they said they viewed as profitable enough to expand. If the landlords take out their own mortgages to purchase this could be a quick fire way of reducing Company debt and costs. Next statement will be interesting from the new CEO or who they decide to appointment as the new Chairman? Maybe an ex-banker?
I agree re the need to accelerate reduction of the company debt which is it's biggest issue, and I would be more than happy if they pushed forward with additional asset disposals to pay down debt, especially as land prices increase as inflation and interest rates fall.
The last NAV I recall was around 101p vs an SP of circa 29p underpins the debt, but I would also like the board to consider even a partial sale and leaseback programme which could be beneficial.
My other concern is that the company may have suffered from the recent poor weather and cash-stretched customers although overall I am hopeful of a slow but steady turnaround of the SP, particularly as summer approaches and if we can get a spell of decent weather.
The recent director buy is particularly encouraging and I am mulling over a small top-up at these prices even though I am well under-water with MARS
Hello Grey Monk -To be honest you might not have to wait too long for a positive return on this share price as :-
Inflation figs show a dramatic fall for Food and Drink and Eating out, and overall interest rates will be coming down sooner than many have imagined.
With lower interest rates Property values will increase and so the £2b of prop that Marston own will be increasing at a faster rate than cost. Loan rates will also fall and so the margin will increase.
Having met the new CEO at the AGM I think he's a shrewd cookie. I've been topping up under 30p and am confident that one day I'll be celebrating those purchases. Might be a wait but theres a lot of assets in there, the debt is coming down albeit slowly but the next few years may well be a little easier than the last few
I wouldnt put much credence to the company ceo having "faith in the company and buying shares",not long ago a top ceo "RF" had that much faith in the company he turned down three offers of over £1 a share,stating "we are worth more than that",we are lucky if we get above 30p,
See the shares are moving up today which cannot be all down to the new "Fresh" beers being released by the Brewery, but suspect may have something to do with the CFO buying over 347,000 shares in the Company two months before the release of May results, and possibly therefore making use of his purchase window whilst he can? Suppose shows faith in the Company and he has confidence in it. Half year results confirmed as 14th May on Morning Star. DYOR/GLA.
Seems the Marston/Carlsberg Brewery partnership is going really well with no debt and producing a lot of income. For both Marston and Carlsberg as well as reducing costs through economy of scale that even Stonegate are now benefiting from too with the signature on a deal to supply their 1500 pubs/bars,etc. to the 1400 held already!
So with Marston looking for a new Chairman and with them looking vulnerable to a take over, perhaps Carlsberg or Stonegate who have a vested interest in the business might have something to say, or might even think about their own take over? The debt Marston have is only being half of their property values which will might make this attractive to a pub operator but also to the Company where the Marston Chairman is heading which is "British Land" who will have already selected why they wanted Rucker in the first place as someone who knows the true value of Marston property inside out! Always worth an alternative view to balance any negative side with a positive view and this is the way to balance any argument for or against a share. GLA interesting to see how this plays out in a Company both Carlsberg and Stone gate and BL will have close vested interests!
JWB, agree. The problem is how too acheive a large reduction without breaching the JV with Carlsberg.
Maybe sell the 40% of the Brewery?? or and it must have been considered , a Fund raise!!
They should sell some assets
All cash made is paying off debt, certainly most of it. Will take decades. Something needs to change here to change the rating
Back in this today, can’t see it going in any lower and great to see a nice Director’s buy today.
Great to see another bit of dead wood being thrown out the company, but the SP is lagging terribly (as usual) in comparison to others in the sector today.
Had hoped the new CEO would give a push up, but not to be.. awful performance again.
Doesn't look as if after he has packed his "rucker sack" that the stock market has reacted negatively at all. Perhaps a change is as good as a rest and things can move forward for shareholders where it will pay dividend!!!
Interesting Ralph Findlay moved to Vistry a Property company.
"I see no statement yet", it is all detailed on the RNS at 07.00 this morning !