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Quite a few directors buying up shares just recently,have they heard or know somethings imminent ???
Barchild "WRT the mcap & brewery valuation, to most peoples minds is the valuation of the freehold estate fair or not"
Sorry but that's complete nonsense. Mcap is never a reliable valuation of a company. Anyone who knows anything about investment would tell you that. You lost some respect points there my friend. Mcap is perhaps the least reliable indicator of what a company is worth - "in the short term, the market is a voting machine, in the long run it is a weighing machine" - Ben Graham. You don't value a company judging by sentiment/how the market is reacting to the stock. The intelligent investor is quite a complex book to read (I have a copy) but I can assure you nowhere in that book does buffett or graham advise taking mcap as a reliable indicator of what the company is worth - complete the opposite infact. The advise is that the best opportunities are often taking advantage of market valuations that have become detached from reality, oversold, unloved stocks that are way cheaper than what the true value suggests.
NAV is 96, and the last takeover offer was 106, so 27 is a bargain, with a potential for 200% profit.
Plus 40% holding in Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company, with dividends of £19.4 million received in 2022.
glad to be buying and holding, and once payday lands with be buying more.
Not surprised (so have I) the share is cheap when the latest accountants report says what the share price NPV is (I need reminding but was that 96p?) So an offer of £1.06 was not much of a premium on the accountants valuation. Goodwill will have a value on a Company that has been running for over 100 years too!
As less competition is out there now too the value of survivors such as Marston will go up in time, as sales improve and the Management already know this. GLA.
CEO is buying more shares.
Both he and the CFO keep buy which is a great sign that they see value in the share and put their own money in
Shape
I agree with you, the real fear here is interest rates and despite posters saying they won't be high for long rates always tend to stay higher for longer in every cycle, what's worse is they are almost certainly not at their peak yet.
The other issue is the Pub itself, younger people often prefer recrational substances (if you want to get stoned these are way cheaper than alcohol today) or also many are now totally teetotal. So are pubs ex growth ?
They certainly appear to be in large parts of the country, if this spread to MARS country it's hasta la vista.
Against this the SP is so battered down here they are option money, if I were a shorter which I'm not but I often was before retirement from the market, I'd be scared to go short here just on the upside downside risk.
When I was first involved with this stock it was so comfortably ensconced in the FT250 that nobody would dream that one day it would be out but that is where we are today, relying on hope & charity, (I suspect more hope than charity from this board)...
Inflation appears to be settling down lower short term, no one knows if that will continue. However most expect a peak soon if it has not already been found. With lower inflation comes lower rates and this will help growth.
Funny thing is with Alcohol sales when people feel depressed they can relax or some would say drown their sorrows to relieve stress. So for pubs when people feel down the Alcohol sales could increase. Everyone can have their own opinion but even my man from the Pru said if you do not take risk you will not make money. Speculate to accumulate. Sometimes one has to wait for a while for an asset to be worth more. I see a good opportunity here but every investment can have risk, so one could have a spread over a range. Good luck all whatever your choice.
Barchid,
I feel that I am on a solo crusade with my arguments , there are so many contributors expressing their thoughts that this is a potential goldmine at current prices, i,e, Ripe for a takeover, warmer weather encourages more drinking , the assets more than cover the debts etc. The solid facts are that Mars is over endebted in this economic climate and these debts have to be serviced on a regular basis in Hard CASH ! What I am saying I suppose is that it is a case of The Kings New Clothes - Anyway I appreciate your tacit support and basically agree with most you post !
Market manipulation is literally a fundamental part of the stock market.
only a fool would believe that the stock market is not manipulated in some way.
read up on Black Wednesday (or the 1992 sterling crisis), funds set up a way to make lots of money by specifically trashing Pound.
the stock market is run by criminals that went to eton and oxbridge.
marstons are a good bet, as the next stage of mass migration into the UK is turning the new arrivals in to alcohol drinking, gambling, credit card using cash cows.
Chat forums always obsessed about market manipulation!
Writing this the live price is 26.85/27p so the mid price is under 27p.
This really is down to option levels, I'm not sure how much more bad news is needed to bring the price down further but for punters who play options this stock must start to be appealing.
By the same token for genuine shareholders it signals more volatility, the big risk being the banks who fund the company and property valuations on the downside and an opportunistic cut price bid to put shareholders out of their misery on the upside.
Frankly I don't have a view which is more likely but down here more volatility seems a near certainty.
This uncertainty must be dreadful for their employees, I wish them well, they could easily be the biggest losers here, let us hope not, for their sakes.
Marstons are a solid business, could see a takeover offer based on the current MCAP, and any large buys land this will bounce up fast.
great time to buy and hold for gold.
They should have taken 106p. 50 would be ok though. mess up my share save though. hmmm.
Yeah but you hadn't done 12hrs in the kitchen by that point. its hot in the kitchen. we are doing 30% off at Revere brand of Marstons and its an absolute killer. I do get you're upset about it.
Hi Barchid, buying more to add to my holding, easy profit margin to be made on this.
The fact is, there was a takeover offer for 106p, and this is now open to a takeover target again due to the current MCAP, as a bid for anything over 100p would need to be seriously considered by the BoD.
Mr.Market means nothing at the moment other than big funds manipulating things.
Claire
Welcome back to the board, I trust your trading has not affected your judgement, but really, these directors are not exactly committing much capital in buying that number of shares at current levels, are they ?
You say "now a take over target" but the brain dead RF (super chap according to super discharger) turned down 106p so it would indicate that we have been a takeover target for quite a long time, not just now ?
WRT the mcap & brewery valuation, to most peoples minds is the valuation of the freehold estate fair or not.
Can it really be as high as stated in the last accounts in current market conditions ?
I come back to whether Mr Market is normally right or wrong ?
When the CFO and CEO are buying shares that is a very good sign:
26 June 2023
Director and PDMR (Chief Financial Officer)
Purchased: 34,767 shares
25 May 2023
Director and PDMR (Chief Financial Officer)
Purchased: 28,992shares
24 May 2023
Director and PDMR (Chief Executive Officer)
Purchased: 29,259 purchased
now a takeover target with an MCAP at £179.96m, considering the Carlsberg Marston Partnership is worth £400m itself
Past few weeks see plenty of Marstons packed, and lots of alcohol shelves are being sold out..
everything is pointing to Marstons making good revenue at the moment
To add to the possible ++ I read over the week end that due to the change in Alchol tax many brewers are reducung the strength of some beers (mainly the stronger ones) which will save a price increase. Not entirley sure how this translates into the price of a pint over the counter and subsiquent profit. For me I buy beer in general for the taste but avoid rocket fuel as I am a session drinker. being used to London prices a penny or two here or there makes no difference to the number of pints I drink especially as certainly in London people pay by card so most people would not even know the price of a pint these days ecept perhaps wheatherspons drinkers. But is this the same for the rest of the country where most of out pubs etc are?
Suppose can't blame them for giving drink sales particularly their Ales priority over food - if they see this as more profitable in the warmer weather? i.e. It doesn't take many pints of beer today to cover the cost of a meal? What is the price of a pint compared to a meal? Pints are quicker to sell than cooking meals too? Perhaps they are concentrating the labour force to make hay whilst the sun shines towards the end of an evening to boost quick sales? Next sales figs will tell us more I am sure. GLA.
45Bob,
Every sympathy with your predicament, in saying that everybody should have time off or a closure time for a well earned break but, and it is a big but , We are in the trade of selling food and beer and ( As far as the shares are concerned ) are in the financial mess ! I find that independant resteraunts offer a much more flexable service especially on Sunday evenings and are polite and helpful, Why ?? because their lively hood depends on it !!What can you expect when Mars employ kids straight from school, at minimum wage with precious little training in customer service, and call evertone you guys!! Sad endictment of a company I love - beers still good though.
A bit disappointed to be turned away for dinner at 8.04 on Sunday because the kitchen had just closed. A party of 6 in front was also turned away, so at least £100 lost on the hottest weekend of the year. With restaurants struggling and MARS price under pressure, surely the senior management need to look at things like this. As a small shareholder I don’t think this is good enough, we ended up getting a takeaway. I’m sure Wetherspoons would have taken our money
1. Marstons in there H123 claim overall 93% of debt is hedged for interest but in FY22 1,121 of debt is fixed at 5.2% and 531m is at floating rate.
2. 300m Bank facility 217m drawn leaving 83m estate 120m hedged, what about the remaining 180m?
3. 40 m private placement cannot locate rates.
4.Securitised debt in 2005, 800m of secured loan notes against 1,592 pubs with an additional 330m against 437 pubs equals 1,113m against 2,029 pubs but as of now Marstons operate 1,440 pubs, how many do they own? Carrying value of secured pubs 1,166m as of FY22, number of pubs secured unknown, is it the case that the company borrowed 621m and secured this against a number of it's pubs which have a current value of 1,166m and of the 621m, 120m is undrawn,
cost of secured debt 5.1 or 6%.
5. Finance cost of 91.9 m for 2022 and 93.4 m for 2021, are we expecting 2023/24 to be the same as these figures here.
6. Lease liabilities 382, other lease liabilities 338, lease liability debt cost 30m minus 11m lease income, is this accurate ? Do we expect lease liability debt cost to revise or remain?
7. Risk suffocating debt cost, economic directions, high interest rates, less disposable income, less revenue and profit here impacting debt servicing ability.
8. Strategy
Significant sale of assets of interest in CMBC gets the debt low, less debt service cost.
I believe that we could be at the start of a Bear Market where most share prices take a hit, only time will tell.
Sometimes the decline does go on forever, especially with so much debt, but about 18p I’ll say is the bottom. Covid low was 19p but fullers and Wetherspoons went substantially below covid lows.