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The problem is, it's always "next year" with this lot. Let's hope they can make some meaningful progress this year.
You wait until we see some movement here, Q4 / Q1 25 will make Norway look like a side show.
I expect the SP to be nearer 40-50m as that firms up.
That said buying production assets has been slow, with no real excuses. Now H has moved he can fully focus on spending some of the Japex budget
Agree Paul. How many years do they need. Wish i wanged my money in a ftse divi payer
Still holding myself and would like to add more around the 17p mark. Spare cash all went into ECO at 9p which has accelerated - perhaps thats where the traders have gone - to help me along!!
Although I am no fan of the ex FPM management who follow the mantra of increasing MC rather than SP, along with hefty wage bills, I do see a recovery going towards the Norge drill later this year. Happy to sit and should funds allow add.
Charlatans.
Is this company ever going to do anything?
Meanwhile the management are coining it in.
Let’s march onwards to the early20’s
So they are not talking to Malcy at the moment. Lets hope ots because they’re working on something they’re not yet ready to unveil.
Lol Ash. I think the difference is now, that Longboat finally have someone (JAPEX) behind them. Let's see what they come up with.
In the meantime, I noted Malcy has been scracthing his head about the recent management changes:
"As I write I am waiting to talk to Longboat management about a series of management changes which leave me somewhat unconvinced. The company has a large number of excellent directors but are they all in the right place? As a former Faroe fan I cannot understand why Helge has left the management team, I am known to be a huge fan of James Menzies so that area is in excellent hands but I guess better folk than me will tell me one day… I must be missing something, it wouldn’t be the first time."
Based on our miniscule production investment to date i think there's 3 hopes in that, no hope, bob hope and envelope
Good shout Zengas,
Long story short, it's easily doable. Repsol, Source, Var, Shell (reports) are looking to either sell up or refine their portfolio in Norway so opportunities are around. Helge, for his lack of charisma has been in Norway for decades, has the connections and managed to convince JAPEX to join us and fund us.
It's potentially doable. One thing you may have potentially missed is the barrel per 2P reserves. Okeas was transacted at an initial cost of $5.36 per 2P bl which would value the upfront cost at about $284m for 53 mm bls P2 and then discounted back to whatever effective date is used (perhaps 1/1/24 or earlier).
I posted this on 1/3/24
Okea bought their 4 interests (not long after LBE )n Statford, Statford Ost, Statford Nord and Sygna for $220m giving 13-15,000 boepd, 41 mmboe 2P, 8mmboe 2C and upside of another 14 mmboe.
Acquisition of 28% WI in PL037 from Equinor, comprising 23.93123% WI in Statfjord Unit, 28% WI in Statfjord Nord, 14% WI in Statfjord Øst Unit and 15.4% WI in Sygna Unit.
Production in 2024 this year estimated to be 16-20,000 boepd (though likely reduced by 10% this year).
Effective date 1 January 2023
Initial fixed consideration of USD 220 million including tax balances of approximately NOK 300 million.
This was transacted at an initial cost of $5.36 per boe 2P.
However this would expand to a profit share on bls sold between $75-$96 in 2023, $64 - $85 in 2024 and $53 - $72/b in 2025 where Equinor get 90% of the profit in those ranges after tax and effectively increasing the 2P per barrel cost.
Happy to be wrong btw Mommur. I'm always please to see other investors getting mega returns.
I'd just rather LBE aren't bought out by SQZ because I don't see the Ring Vet Vest being a big priority for them. They seem more contempt with draining every inch of BKR regardless of the diminishing returns they receive with each cycle.
I'm just not sure on SQZ in terms of their desire to truly branch out of the CNS, that's why I originally sold out.
They should, in my view be a 100,000 boepd company by now but they seemed too contempt and focused on BKR. Outside of R3, which was a plan that came with Rhum on the sale of the field. I'm just not sure what they've achieved. The last Tailwind acquisition seemed insane from a synergy point of view. SQZ had touted itself as a company focused entirely on gas production to then acquire a company focused entirely on oil (and fairly low rates).
Mitch Clegg IMO was the downfall of SQZ and it was crazy to save him from his failed time at Circle Oil, once TCW stepped aside as CEO the company has stagnated, in 2021/22 they we're given a miracle from the bull run in Nat gas prices and they still failed to do anything meaningful with the profit. I don't see them doing anything meaningful in Norway unfortunately.
Serica has commented on looking at Norway Assets, Deeko. With the backing of Mercuria, may well have the slide rule going. Bigger fish than Longboat, which I considered a tasty morsel for Serica as well!!
Also worth noting, all other acquisitions in recent months - Kufpec, Barge etc have self funded the acquisition through production revenue. No money has actually changed hands with most deals.
The marketing documents seen by Reuters state 53 mmboe reserves and 29,000 boepd
Helge has stated that Longboat have potentially $200 million available in financing between the JAPEX intracompany loan and additional supplementary financing.
Repsol assets would be valued at around £420 million at $8 per boe as per the recent benchmark acquisition price.
6 months of production backdating between acquisition announcement and closing of the acquisition would come to $160 million at a conservative 30$ per boe of production. N.B. current production is 29,000 boepd.
Reserve based lending for the remaining $60 million.
Hopefully this is the reason HH has moved directly over to the LBEJAPEX JV full time. That would launch LBE into the stratosphere, set the stage for the Ring Vei Vest project development, fund a continuous drilling campaign in Norway and set the stage for Malaysia development.
Ps. To be fair, at Coro JM did the Duyung acquisition in 2019, but that is probably 2-3 years from production, so succesful in one sense , but a poor return on cash .
I liked the previous set up. Whilst I like JM and he was succesful 3 companies ago, he subsequently was ceo of Tap oil though it had a producing asset in SE Asia, he was unable to raise funds and there was a boardroom coup pushed by a shareholder and he resigned. He then went to Coro plc and again didnt manage to close a meaningful deal and then didnt want to reduce his salary as the other board members had during covid and was therefore squeezed out/ resigned.
Though he touts his connections, In neither company over a total of around 4/5 years did he manage to complete a meaningful deal.
As a result of this history and having been persuaded by his charm, I dont see him as ceo material anymore. and was pleased that the HH and the Norges were in place to manage him.
Let's see about Nick...
Who else is wondering whether HH has been pressured to move aside by some large shareholders. Due to shareholder value destruction / lack of progress.
Or is it just that he has reached retirement age.
I noted our new CEO shelled out about 170k for shares at 75p a share, back when they raised 35m for the Norway drilling deals.
Some holder is liquidating
Worth investing for this alone, we know the big E&P players want this deal.
Its Malaysian portfolio, Kertang, is located north-west of the prolific Central Luconia hydrocarbon province.
In February 2023, Longboat entered Malaysia through the award of a Production Sharing Contract for Block 2A, offshore Sarawak. Block 2A covers approx. 12,000km2 and is located in water depths of between 100-1,400 metres where a number of large prospects across multiple plays have been identified, with significant volume potential representing multiple trillions of cubic feet of gas.
Personally I think longboat should be going back to JAPEX and saying.
There are several deals available right not. How much do you want the production and how quickly?
Repsol is up for sale: 29,000 boepd and 53 million bow reserves
Sval is up for sale 70,000 boepd expected to sell for 400 million according to routers with debt of 700 million.
Kufpac just sold for 450 million and 19,000 boepd
Var will be divesting according to reports.
My take would be you’ve offered the £100 million but if you want to grow quickly, here’s the opportunity. £300 million loan, reserve based lending for the other £200 million and off we go to the races :)
if you are a lth , then a sympathise with you , especially if you bought 2022 previous
the company’s performsnce has been **** go put it mildly , and directors have not earned their salaries before the japex deal .with this deal it is superb position to now growth .
can the bod deliver ?, would hope so with expertise around .
if it can get close to the prioduction levels mentioned then it can more than justify the current mkt cap and share price .
i have been buying and it is currently liquid on both sides , so demand and supply is there
the risk reward at £10m is very very compelling and this could easily double or triple on potential deals
since i have been following these for while , the last rns was allowed an opportunity to buy sub 18p again which i though i had missed for good
good luck everyone
> 2. Japex buy out LBEs stake (they have H to do the Norwegian deals, which is what they wanted all along)
That is certainly one possible outcome.
Helge goes to work for JAPEX and LBE get a pay out.
Fine by me so long as value added for share holders.