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No - that means if revenues of project less costs before corporate investment and investment in asset ie new exploration was returned to you, you would recieve 10p/share in total dividends discounted at 8% to today. Risking required as Blue says.
Thanks Blue & UKI. I am clear on what NPV itself is. I was curious what Harry meant when he said with pog at $2000/oz that would give NPV of 10p/share.
I think UKInvestor has clarified that what this actually means to me in hard cash (less costs, reinvestment etc etc etc) is a divvy of 10p per year per share.
Correct ?
I am trying to get to what my investment may be worth one day to me.
Thanks again.
in basic terms NPV means what is the money worth to me today as compared to its planned future cash flows.
You buy a flat and rent it for £1,000 a month for 5 years.
So that gives a cash flow of 1000 x 12 x 5 = 60000
But those receipts are in the future and not guarenteed - what if you had rented to someone who dies after 24 months, or who does a runner one night after 36 months?
So you have to attribiute risk to the cash flow.
10% of tennants dont get to the end of their agreement - so there is a 10% risk multiplier in there.
Also what if you just left your money in the bank (not really applicable today - this stuff was invented pre-QE Infinity)
If you get say 5% yield in the bank but only 3% on your rental then you are losing 2% vs the Discount Rate. So that mcash flow is costing you something.
Also throw inflation in there - 1,000 a month may look good now - but in 5 years it could be a terrible rental.
etc ...
So chuck all that in an equation and you calculate the real value of the money over its lifetime based on what it looks like today - PRESENT VALUE - minus risks etc hence NET.
*if it (in first sentence)
It means it’s the value of it was notionally all returned annually in dividends discounted to today - in reality it gets reinvested in growth, the company etc...and yes it’s NPV divided by shares
@UKINVESTOR - Thanks, I understand what an NPV is. I'm struggling with what it means per share (ok so obviously it is the NPV/number of shares).
Let's say I buy one share today at 2p, when Harry said the NPV for TK alone if gold was $2000/oz would be 10p does that mean that during the lifetime of the TK mine I can expect to receive 10 p in divvies (less stuff as you mentioned before) for each share I bought? I am struggling with why he couched it as so many pence per share.
To me I look at it a different way, I look at how the NPV would be reflected in the MCAP and hence my share value (assuming MCAP and NPV are broadly related in some way for gold miners).
Sorry if I am being thick, I am no expert in mining. I am unclear what that 10p per share based on his NPV forecast means to either my sp or my divvys or both.... that is what I am trying to understand.
Or is it similar some arbitrary metric that allows you to compare one miner with another ?
Mike it's the value of future cashflows discounted to today, you should google it to learn more, crucial part of mining investment
@UKINVESTOR - What does NPV per share mean? You mean over the lifetime of the mine it will deliver 10p per share of divvys? Please excuse my ignorance.
Excludes Saudi and assets
Excludes Saudi
MS that is NPV per share though need to factor in elements of dilution, debt service charge, execution etc
@SS2000 - Thanks for the video link (https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5f1e93dd864c395ee4bb2a3b). I've just watched it. Overall it made me a lot more confident and enthused, particularly about the Saudi results due this month. I doubled my holding a few days back. I want to do the same again since watching this interview.
Question you may or may not be bothered to answer: At the 25min mark Harry says that if gold is $2000/oz then that is 10p/share. If $3000/oz then that is 20p a share. What does he mean? Is that the dividend or the expected (somehow) sp?
The $1400 is in relation to banks. This is a seperate funding done with forward sales to specific financiers who specialize in this area. He says the consensus price of gold going forward is around $1700 and that the terms of the forward sales will not be released until they are approved by the major lenders. This is going to happen and at £2050 gold it is going to happen quickly. He knows the terms he wants and you definitely don't. Anyway I will still be a shareholder when they are announced and you will be holding your precious bank shares . Good luck with that one you are going to need it.
More derampling lies from smelly with his ridiculous $1400 figure for the forward sale. Harry is quite clear that the terms will not be released until everything is finalized and approved by the main lenders. My guess is they will use a fidure in the $1700 area although I do admit it is a guess and we will only find out when the terms are released. He also makes it quite clear Kefi are under no obligation to take ANS on board and the reason they aren't on board is they "couldn't raise the dosh" so no more crap about ANS smelly they simply haven't got the money.
Smelly - fair. In terms of asset prices, I don’t know enough to work that out in my head but not all revert there’s always big winners and losers....and even if other things will catch up, may as well take a Bird in the hand ie the asset rising right now.
I think SA can make a diff if they talk explicitly about resource upside - that’s maybe not known if you don’t use this board or watch the doc. But I tend not to judge what will lift a valuation it’s often hard to know ie the rise from 1p wasn’t on specific news just a rerate.
Mike - thanks, I try my best ;) TinTin is right, by the time/if funding comes a big slice of the opp will be gone, it’s fine not to want that risk but you may as well invest in Centamin etc rather than wait.
buy on rumour - sell on fact - this should continue to rise until the Saudi results come in - the better they are, the more likely funding will be as we will be in a stronger position. Will be too late to buy once Saudi results arrive.
Am expecting a Saudi JV or sell off for complete funding in Ethiopia. You need faith but if it was guaranteed it wouldn't be AIM!
@UKInvestor - for what it's worth, as I've been lurking a few months your posts have been amongst the most considered and helpful. Thanks.
I am gagging to put a lot more into KEFI as I think they are very undervalued. Sorry to say though that statement is followed by a but, as in, if they don't get funding by Oct then I see more delays, politic risks etc, and rather than have another 2 year delay I could use my money somewhere else during that time. I only have a max of 3 months to wait then hopefully they will have the funding in place.... or not! The dilemma I have now is whether to put more £ in and "hope" they get the funding or wait til it is a certainty by when the the sp will have risen more quickly than I can get in as a PI not glued to a screen all day.
Evening U.K. my input is I am fully invested in kefi I didn’t invest with my eyes closed why would a man sell kefi then come back and deramp and pull kefi to bits he knew the score before he invested no doubt the man is a scaremonger who could get under a snakes belly with a top hat on
i investor just on the return mean thing I meant in comparison to other asset classes - obviously everything increases in price due to inflation but its the relative price of gold to the various indices and other assets like houses etc.
I agree the debate is repetitive and havent posted for days until today but if I'm attacked and called a liar I have to respond. There can be nothing new here until there is actual news - some think the SA results will impact though I'm not entirely sure what surprises are hoped for to move the share price, for me its whether funding can be achieved which of course would be positive or whether it will be delayed and dilution announced which will be the opposite ! I'm leaving now unless someone attacks me personally or tells blatant lies (opinions are fine!)
Just read this on ADVFN for Kefi - I don’t have an account but browse sometimes, I think they won’t be joining:
“ That LSE board is filth. Simpletons on both sides, makes it close to unreadable. At least our resident nutters are erudite”
Overman he has contributed to the debate though even though the debate in general has probably got repetitive. Ironically with the exception of two very reasonable replies to me, your last c35 posts on here have been attacking Smelly/Oil, surely you have views on Kefi itself to share ????????????
Hold - yes that is true though somewhat separate as a discussion. I think the mine was done at 1100 though that’s from memory so it’s probably a lower price than that to lift what’s mined.
Moke - I’m apparently Smelly and Oilbit (and I guess by extension, you!) too in the eyes of a myopic few, welcome to the club ;) This board is worse than others for lack of knowledge/unwillingness to accept views. Ie Solg has quite a lot of very informed posting.
I am with the ‘rampers’ though in that I think Kefi is v cheap here, whatever (figuratively) the risks
Smelly still singing from the same old song sheet sad man
ss2000 - thanks for the link - I'll check it out tomorrow.
PS - I am not smellyben! I just happened to agree with him on his critique of the company!! I can see why LSE has such a dire reputation. 25% good debate with evidence. 25% derampers. 25% rampers and 25% bs!
Wasn’t the gold price also attributable to the relevance of bringing other deposits (not the truck able satellite) into the equation too? I.e. I’m sure I remember the discussion that there are potential mineable deposits at say $1700 an ounce which had been originally discarded in the feasibility studies due to low gold price? That’s part of the reason why after construction starts Kefi are quietly confident of raising the deposits to 3m+ ounces in the Tulu Kapi area alone (obviously with the underground) at a cost of $2m for Further drilling and analysis?