The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Herron Premium Member
Posted in: JOG
Posts: 165
Price: 123.00
No Opinion
Buying signal ?????????????25 Aug 2021 14:40
Those two 5k "Unknowns" are my exit from this casino.
.......apologies - thought you got out at 150p but I now see it was 123p. My memory evidently isn't what it used to be.
No, I haven't been to Aberdeen recently (ever, in fact) but I know a man who has..........
Generated any wealth on your own this century?
I think I was highlighting the danger of a landslide labour vote rather than suggesting "Scotland is ever going to vote Conservative" but hey ho God help the man who stirs the Dick. I sold out at about 2.70 ages ago but on a recent trip to Scotland felt I got an inside track. I am encouraged by the reality check taking place around the net zero debate and believe that the Conservatives will take a more accommodating stance towards North Sea investment. Particularly encouraged by Rishi himself stating that we will need oil for years and by inference better our own than elsewhere's. Been to Aberdeen recently Dick ?
You're delusional if you think Scotland is ever going to vote Conservative. Because Claire Nobody: "what would you like me to thinks and say Mr Sunak" identified as a Brexiteer?? A big majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU in the Referendum, regardless of the Party they voted for.
Last time I can recall reading anything you wrote, you were crowing about having sold out at 150p.
What happened?
It only took a few years but Philippe Coutinho has resurfaced as Claire Coutinho thanks to the wonders of trans surgery. And not a moment too soon as the SNP's demise raises the prospect of significant Labour gains north of the border. Claire was and I hope still identifies as a Brexiteer and hopefully Rishi and his advisers are starting to appreciate the need to bring some good news to his Scottish supporters, to stem this potential red advance. A rethink on the absurdly high tax rate on the oil and gas sector would be a good place to start. Come on Claire/Philippe whoever............
I think you're probably right about that. And I suspect that Mr Upham is just feeling tremendous frustration having grasped the huge value in jog so much sooner than everyone else, due to his understanding of balance sheets.anf accounting principles. Then having built a good sized position, it is then frustrating for anyone to see the market continue to remain asleep to the value proposition. Ultimately value will out, assuming no unforeseen screwups, since industry players in one form or another will be aware of the jog proposition, and if the market continues to remain significantly behind the value curve as progress is made, then a savvy player will be the Yang to Neo's Ying, and will snap up the other fifty percent (by buying the whole company, and retaining the neo farmout more akin to a JV). Just the ramblings of a jaded rat catcher who appreciates Mr Upham's well thought out and constructed contributions to our shared knowledge pool here.
On a somewhat cheerier note, DU - we are coming into the AW season.. WHI are positive about small caps and oil and Jog has an interesting agenda
Despite the unrest in the NS, the reality is that the situation could look a lot worse under a change of government, especially if they withdraw the EPL incentive (albeit I suspect that the unions would have something to say about the knock on impact on jobs...)
So... you would think for those who are committed to the NS, that little old JOG is a definite sitting duck candidate for M&A... especially with Harbour banging the drum..
The next 3-6 month horizon has the potential to look very interesting... especially as Brent continues to head north
From my perspective, I feel more confident now than I have done at any point in the last 4 years...
DYOR/IMHO
Looks like Neo have a quite a but on at the moment https://aberdeenbusinessnews.co.uk/green-light-for-redevelopment-of-north-sea-field/ https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/uk-regulator-endorses-environment-plan-for-north-sea-oil-project/2-1-1507797 if nothing else a positive sign they have recent experience of getting redevelopment plans approved
Sounds like news been waiting for finally coming?
A belated message to say thanks to all who have contributed to this board.
I remain, like Dick and others a long time holder. In particular I have to say I much enjoyed DO's recent post telling us about his 5 high ranking visitors and wonder if they might pay Dick or me a visit. Dick's posts are of course always interesting as well.
In the meantime I'm happy to await the ending of the game, who knows, it might be any figure between £5.00 and £43.00!!
To reinforce your msg, I for one, would have been long gone, were it not for DU.
My thanks to you, DU, for your knowledge, wisdom, and particularly, your rants. Always bring a little light into an otherwise uneventful day.
Keep 'em coming.
Cheers to you, DU.
I’ve made a killing on my Pantheon stock .
Absolutely who can replace our Prince here?! No one. Just that most people, probably like myself, read the board without signing in unless they have something to say. During this quiet time most probably don’t bother to even read the board. I very rarely visit the board these days. There’s nothing to say. Next month better news perhaps? Holiday over. Happy Friday. Back to school/work next week.
I meant I couldn't find anything to suggest she was going to be a new broom and influence the tax treatment either way. She doesn't appear to be outspoken either pro or anti EPL, just a Sunak fan.
On what basis do you say that she is on the fence rather than fully supporting government policy?
I see she studied maths and philosophy at Oxford University. This *might * mean she can understand that the EPL income is inversely proportionate to the rate and will trend towards net zero as the industry up-sticks for the/a Gulf . She *might* also understand a moral argument around the emissions of imported gas being 4x (+) of home-extracted gas. Being a Brexiteer perhaps, just perhaps, she has enough spine to call out the daft notion that energy security = shutting down the UKCS industry in favour of imported fossil fuels. We live in hope.
Coutinho takes energy sec role from Schapps. She doesn't appear to be anywhere other than on the fence though. Perhaps this is convenient for a U-turn in policy (wishful thinking?).
Dick
You are very much a valued member of this board my friend and your postings shouldn't be measured by the amount of visual response. We look forward to your continued input and knowledge to what we all hope will be the ticket to a healthy happy life once this baby takes off.
Dick, I agree with Cuphalfull.
Very much appreciate your knowledge and analysis .
I have been invested since 2015 and built a significant stake and remain a believer but government has rather adversely interfered at a time when all effort should be invested in NS along the lines JOG and others propose.
I am confident that the Board and Directors are doing all they can to achieve second farm out at favourable terms but they will not be helped by external factors.
My body clock has been set at 0700 for years awaiting a RNS that will be transformational.
Thank you and please keep posting.
I wasn't after praise - just a bit of spirited debate. There's solace in camaraderie and these are worrying times with politicians shooting from the hip at anything that's moving to raise money and win votes. Britain is a busted flush and I and others have too much invested in it, which becomes wearing on the soul - particularly when one's clock is ticking a lot faster than most.
PC01, you're spot on with your account of being taxed when you invest and taxed when you take your pension. You forgot to add that you're taxed throughout the time you money is invested because the Govt allows people like pension fund managersand internet brokers to lend your shares (without your authority) to investment banks, hedge funds and others for shorting purposes. The Govt cant tax your money when it's in a pensions wrapper, but it can and does tax the people who are involved in decimating your wealth with this dishonest practice.
There's a register of short positions (more than 0.5%) that's kept for transparency purposes (supposedly). Discloses the name of the party having sold short. I'd be a lot more interested in who has lent them the shares. Then we might be in possession of info that enables us to avoid placing our funds with these scumbags.
"The City" today is all about how much of the estimated £3trillion of people's savings that are placed with these hyenas. It long ceased to see its role as trading profitably with the rest of the world by being a centre of excellence in all things financial. The days of "my word is my bond" are gone forever. We live in dishonest times.
Morning Dick you are highly respected member of this forum and we value your input .
Hello Dick- I value your contributions to this board above all others - my lack of response to your postings is because there is little/or nothing to add once you have exhaustively ground the considerations and numbers down - i.e I am a grateful recipient of your efforts but not qualified myself to debate them.
I have been looking at this board I think for 3 months and have copied all your postings since that of 31/05/23 into a separate folder - as I have said previously they are like a masterclass, so please know your contributions are very much appreciated
Dick you're not wasting your time my dear chap - however, the mkt remains completely indifferent to good news, however I can promise you any bad news will be met with a severe beating! Simon Thompson 'they're cheap' gets 20 odd trades as a few fly by nights buy...then a week later when it hasn't double bagged (I'm in the phraseology these days!) they sell, forgetting quite why they bought in the first place....rinse n repeat. I've said it so often - and will repeat again - if you have a great business model, idea etc the UK is simply the last place on the planet to try and make it work. So anti-business, taxed when you earn, taxed when you invest, taxed when you take your pension, a further 20% VAT when you buy anything. So i understand why this trades at a 75% discount to fair value. And for most of us, despite a notinal £8 FV (and £43 if you think all moons align :-)) we'd probably jump at a £4/share bid by someone with deep pockets and needful of some tax losses.
Slightly old news (article published 24th Aug 2023 but I thought it might be of interest to this board.
"North Sea oil and gas producer, Ithaca Energy, has decided to drastically cut its production in the UK due to the adverse effects of a windfall tax.
The company revealed that the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) has compelled them to defer and even cancel certain projects slated for 2023 and 2024.
Anticipating a decline in production next year, Ithaca expressed concern over the hindered investments across the UK North Sea, with many operators delaying or scrapping projects in response to the fiscal climate.
Ithaca said: “In the meantime, until the fiscal regime is improved, as a direct result of the EPL, investment across our operated and non-operated portfolio has and will reduce, including the deferral and cancellation of certain 2023 and 2024 projects, impacting medium-term production outlook, with production in 2024 expected to be lower than 2023 levels.”
Gilad Myerson, Ithaca’s Executive Chairman, commented: “We continue to constructively engage with the UK Government to highlight the impact of the current fiscal regime to the industry’s outlook and to the UK Government’s stated energy security and net zero ambitions.”
https://www.futurenetzero.com/2023/08/24/north-sea-producer-slashes-uk-output-due-to-windfall-tax-impact/
A lot of effort on my part to present information that might be pertinent to JOG's current situation in relation to the much needed second farm out. Information about a number of different valuation scenarios a well-respected broker has come up with that allows investors to judge whether or not JOG is fairly valued. Attempted humour to perhaps cheer a few people up in these times when incompetent and unprincipled politicians are stealing our money.................
................and all received with complete indifference - not a single response or even a recommendation except from DO, who most people don't seem to relate to, whereas I find his take on things both witty and intelligent.
Tells me only one thing. I'm wasting my time here.
Over and out
Oh I'm aware neo are first class, top drawer people, no doubt about it. I'm just wondering what they see in the UK political environment which gives them confidence to invest hundreds of millions of pounds in the North sea. I'm reticent myself to consider even a further hundred pounds into anything associated with broken, bankrupt Britain! We do actually have some subcontracted work for the public sector, although Iike all things today we have to do it at arm's length, we think of them and their rats (mainly rats, in certain council properties you get some of the worst squalid conditions, and rats seem to feed off that) as our stakeholders, but sadly we don't have a silver bullet, even though we wish we had! :) No time for dog walking myself, but I did meet an absolutely delightful couple the other day, the gent's better half was clearly being taken on a brisk walk by eight legs, whether she wanted to or not! Actually one of the first people I've seen who dared to wear an "I love oil" t-shirt, no wonder he needed a couple of scary beasts at his side at all times to protect him in case attacked by the liberal lefties who aren't quite offended enough by oil to hand back all of the taxpayer handouts funded by taxing these evil oil producers!