The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
When Boris had a hundred and fifty seat majority, I suspect AB, RL and other influential shareholders thought that £10 might even have been the low end of expectations but how times have changed (and the dirty word oil is never mentioned).
Timing is all and JOG have taken a bit longer to get their farm outs away than we'd all hoped. But I think it is naive to believe that AB isn't well aware of shareholders attitudes to his position and the skills he's had to import. I think both he and RL would like a sale asap and I suspect that given the cash they have both taken out of the business, they will have a realistic attitude to what JOG's value is now. Three times today's value is nearer £6 than £10.
I had assumed that one of the two companies with control of the project would be the only candidates interested in buying the remaining 20% and concerned that tax considerations make that unlikely in your opinion. How can anyone else quantify JOG's (true) value until the flow rates and their constancy have been established and multiply that by an estimate of the price for same at that time. We could be talking Q1 or Q2 2027. But in the interim someone could I suppose estimate the best outcome value and offer 25 or 30% of that and if that was anywhere near £5, right now they might get a result. I think
thoughts of removing AB are fanciful BTW.
The JOG story has always been a contrarian play because time does matter when the forces gathering against you have legitimate concerns about global warming. This morning's COP agreement concerns me because it will help legitimise the
efforts of those who seek to demonise fossil fuels and perhaps seek to make Britain a leader in the cessation of exploration and extraction. If first oil was six months away, of course regulatory hurdles would nave already been cleared and political concerns would probably not be an issue as I can't see why the Tories would want an early election but to me the share price is where it is because our play gets more contrarian every day and the numbers are based on a smooth passage to the time which we have all been waiting for.......when we have some cash flow. Are we still on track or are we behind the curve. Please advise.
Is it possible that an unsuccessful bid from a reputable source is just what we need for more folk to see the figures and understand the maths. I mean unsuccessful at £5 because I cannot see the Board being motivated by much less than double that as we are destined to be so cash rich up to first oil. Shareholder age is a factor however and while Jim and Andrew may be happy to wait, others may be less keen !
Us Jerseymen tend to be pretty tight. I wouldn't look to JOG to secure, my income. No I am a small holder but a few trades have helped repair some granite walls, service a boat engine etc. I think one of the larger JOG holders and a frequent poster, has the government (UK) paying for his hotel rooms no doubt at 100% occupancy which sounds like good business to me. My involvement in this stock came about through providing rental accommodation to AB and family many moons ago. Happily that property and four others keep bread on my table at rents considerably higher than in AB's days. For the record, the last time I sold any of the stock was when it passed through the £3 barrier on its way south in early November last year but I wasn't quick enough and eventually sold at £2.76 on the 8th.
I think I was highlighting the danger of a landslide labour vote rather than suggesting "Scotland is ever going to vote Conservative" but hey ho God help the man who stirs the Dick. I sold out at about 2.70 ages ago but on a recent trip to Scotland felt I got an inside track. I am encouraged by the reality check taking place around the net zero debate and believe that the Conservatives will take a more accommodating stance towards North Sea investment. Particularly encouraged by Rishi himself stating that we will need oil for years and by inference better our own than elsewhere's. Been to Aberdeen recently Dick ?
It only took a few years but Philippe Coutinho has resurfaced as Claire Coutinho thanks to the wonders of trans surgery. And not a moment too soon as the SNP's demise raises the prospect of significant Labour gains north of the border. Claire was and I hope still identifies as a Brexiteer and hopefully Rishi and his advisers are starting to appreciate the need to bring some good news to his Scottish supporters, to stem this potential red advance. A rethink on the absurdly high tax rate on the oil and gas sector would be a good place to start. Come on Claire/Philippe whoever............
I concur with Greener and as someone who has commented on the complexity and cost of developing the GBA, I am encouraged that different solutions are on the table. I have also been wary of our cash position and that is not an issue.
We have a more stable political scenario and are being given a very short time frame for further news, as in end October.
I think this is a pretty positive statement.
I may be wrong on this but I think that if all your family members invest in an AIM stock and it goes down more than 50% in a single trading day, you are entitled to a government grant. I know this would certainly apply with a Gas related stock but not sure if Oilers are covered. Need to check the small print.
Ah Mr Dickupham (Never a man to use a word when a sentence will do).
I am happy to have provoked a modest discussion about the cash issue. Non of us know what JOG's monthly outgoings are or what's left to fund them. Are RL and AB still drawing £25k a month and what of the new crew ? These issues are only of interest to me as I acquired 10k at 1.38 during February and if this skyrockets in April , I will not be a beneficiary as I am shortly to exit the casino. Sorry if i misquoted you but as £44 is twenty five times the current price my reference was in jest. AND REMEMBER PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
Don't mess with Jim and son, in fact it's even dangerous to talk about them. When they buy JOG shares they go in big, real big. There's nothing Rag and Bone about Jim and Junior and they love JOG and when it goes to Dick's £44 estimate
rumour has it they're going to buy that Scherezade wot's holed up in the med. .... if they don't already own it.
Please bet responsibly.
When oil was in the thirties, forties and fifties JOG's appeal to investors was based on the concept of a recovery in the price. A contrarian play that should be rewarding ticket holders now we've reached $120 a barrel. Can't someone make a bid for us. Jim and son must know someone and if they know our cash position, can they advise.
Unfortunately no UK politician will mention the O & G words. Let's hope there are still people out there willing to invest in O&G activity near to our Woke shores. Don't know of Helen Whateley but hope she can bribe some investors one way or another ..............The North Sea Transition Authority - it just could be the catalyst needed to rev up our fortunes.