The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Institutional investors should of course read "private investors"!!
By Balyasny Asset Management of 0.62%. So we now have 1.15% of Indivior's stock in the hands of shorters.
So, that's two very well funded, very experienced investment firms betting against Indivior.
And in Balyasny's case, they're prepared to short it at the current SP - so they clearly think there's significant leeway (decline) to come yet, for them to make a killing.
Let's not kid ourselves as institutional investors that we know anything significant about this stock. And let's not be naive to think that the research and intel that the current shorters have on Indivior are anything but a factor of 100 times greater than what we know.
I really hope I'm wrong, but when the pros are wading in and shorting at the current price, the canary in the coal mine has long since expired.
INDV faces increased competition across its product portfolio, along with unexpected legal liabilities this year. However, there are several reasons to believe the market may be overly pessimistic about the company's prospects.
On the negative side, INDV faces stiffer competition:
- Sublocade's market share growth has slowed since Brixadi’s launch as a rival injectable buprenorphine product. However, Symphony and IQVIA data differ on the severity of the impact, and IQVIA may be undercounting Sublocade’s sales in key channels like criminal justice.
- Generic competition continues to chip away at Suboxone’s market share, with new generic entries from Apotex and Teva expected in 2023.
- Teva launched an injectable risperidone product that appears superior to INDV’s Perseris on duration and injection pain. Early signs suggest Perseris prescriber share has stalled in response.
- Legal liabilities from opioid litigation exceeded INDV’s reserves, creating a $228 million greater payment than expected
However, several factors suggest the market reaction may be overblown:
- Sublocade retains first-mover advantage and can still grow despite Brixadi’s launch, especially with expanded access through new criminal justice and Albertsons programs. INDV’s new North Carolina manufacturing investment signals confidence in reaching $1.5 billion peak sales.
- Suboxone has weathered years of generics and maintains brand loyalty due to higher street value. Alvogen is rapidly losing share to Apotex as the leading Suboxone generic.
- The Opiant acquisition brings pipeline promise through Opvee, a next-gen overdose drug. INDV’s new BARDA deal, worth up to $111M, validates Opvee’s potential and supports adoption by government agencies.
- Adjusting for $60M in Opiant operating expenses, INDV’s base business would generate over $300M in operating profit this year. Valuing legal liabilities as debt, INDV trades at 8x operating income ex-Opiant with room for growth as Sublocade expands.
- INDV’s $100M buyback authorization and rapid pace of $500K-$1M daily repurchases signal a shareholder-friendly approach, supported by board-level representation. Strong cash flow enables future capital returns.
In summary, while INDV faces real near-term headwinds, the stock appears to discount an overly pessimistic scenario.
Some good points well made
Will be interesting to see how Brixadi continues to perform in the US now that it has been launched. Camurus's shares have almost trebled since March, so clearly the new darling of this market space - much as Indv was the previous couple of years.
What is also important are the respective pricing points for both - if Brixadi has been pitched as a significant discount to Sublocade and is equally effective, then Sublocade's sales will take a hit medium to long term. Time will tell what the patients feel is the better of the two.
The market sentiment appears to be that Indv is too reliant on Sublocade to drive growth. Will be interesting to see how it is doing with Opvee now its rolled out and if there is any better news wrt Perseris which has been flatlining last few quarters.
Year end results/ investors call need to address all of the primary concern that it is not just a one trick pony highly susceptible to new or emerging competition.
No, the selloff was because of a Jeffries note that went out that incorrectly indicates that Sublocade was starting to lose market share to Brixadi. Except their date didn’t include all the prescriptions Sublocade has through the US prison system, as well as other channels.
Thanks. Biden is trying to shave a measly $25mio a year off of 48 drugs for the over 65s. Peanuts.
Sell off today could be because of the news of the US drugs inflation bill
I bought some more on the dip today. £11.89 March 2024 with CityIndex
I cannot see any reason for today's 5% sell-off
Depends how you look at it I suppose. if what you are saying is true then they are buying at current, in your words, deflated prices because it is going to go up significantly. That seems like an odd reason to avoid this share.
Another take on this is that the share price was 50% higher than it is now before they listed on the Nasdaq less than 5 months ago!!
I sold some time ago and this has been a blessing. Just took my first tranch to buy back in should the bottom not yet been hit.
The company is expanding sales, selling to a market which unfortunately for the people seems to be getting worse and now also introducing buy backs. The risk reward here is minimal at these levels.
This is relentless. Obviously there'll be a bounce at some point soon .... I presume!
Could it be someone shorting further?
Or could it just be an investor getting out?
Which is just insane
Just did some rough calculations, and it seems that if they keep buying (up to the max $100M) at the current average rate, they'll be buying back upto late June.
Of course, the share price could change a lot in the meanwhile, which might affect the rate of repurchase.
But I'm sure they know more than a Suffolk farm boy.
Seems odd timing.
To short a company that's on a buy-back phase.
By GLG Partners about 3 weeks ago. Great timing for them : 0.53% position taken out. That's the first short position taken out on Indivior in 2 years.
They've already made serious money with this position, so it will be interesting to see if they close the position out pre xmas, as is often the trend, or let it roll. Worth keeping an eye out - canaries in the coal mine and all that.
The only positive is that they are buying more shares for their $100m so PI shares will hopefully be more valuable!
Some serious corruption going on with this share. Serious price manipulation to allow the Co. to buy back the shares at a deflated price at the common pi shareholders expense. This dog is one to avoid. Corrupt management practices are evident.
I'm struggling to see the link between the Wirral Council judgement and the subsequent trashing of the share price.
The judgment was very favourable in that representative proceedings were dismissed, which would have been a free for all class action, with many jumping on the bandwagon and having a free ride.
The way remains for individual claimant to pursue their case via "multi-party" proceedings. It remains to be seen whether Wirral, or any other claimants will want to continue to expend time and money in isolation.
The claims as far as I can see relate to a loss of income due to the share price falling, due to accusations of trying to extend the suboxone commercial advantage by converting to film from tablets. This matter is settled in the US. The claimants from abroad would have to demonstrate that they suffered financial loss as a result of irregular behaviour by the company at the time, and that the accusations were true - as far as I know the matter was settled without admission of liability.
I guess the issue is that we are re hashing old issues that we were hoping were/ are put to bed. And this is scaring investors, in the "when will it ever end" scenario.
It would be useful if Indivior could address Shareholder concerns sooner rather than later - that this matter is not life threatening and that they have robust defences on any and all future multi disciplinary actions in respect of the suboxone film situation. Otherwise we will continue to be mired in this contagion of fear, and the downward trajectory of the SP will continue.
I’m baffled how this has gone below £12.
🤦🏼♂️
I know no-one can answer this, but I ask myself how far can this poor sentiment take this?
£12 ? £11 ? £10 even over time ?
Reading further, it looks like the 'representative claim' has been thrown out,
still leaving the 'multi-party action' as a possible thorn in Indiv's side.
How much longer will this stuff continue. Maybe it's simply wearing down investors.
Shame.
Nice spike up (following the RNS)
Then dribbled down again. What's going on here?