The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I don’t think the worries are if you will die. On a cruise or a plane more that can you get home is what will be in the mind of travellers for the next few years
Well, we have retested recent lows. The market knows that airlines will be grounded for a while which should be reflected in the SP. If fleets are grounded for longer than anticipated then we will see lower levels. Sentiment can be a potent driver of markets and no one is excited about airlines at present. If anything, this pandemic has highlighted a new risk to the airline industry that was probably not really considered before this covid-19.
I don't agree that people will avoid cruises and flying after the lock downs are over. I booked a cruise last year for this November and have no concerns about going. I am probably more likely to die from a car crash going to work than covid-19 on a cruise ship or plane.
I recently published a book 'The Economics of Entrepreneurship' which discusses barriers to entry which, as we know, is high in the airline industry due to capital requirements. However, a huge barrier to entry that people often fail to recognise is low sector profitability. Who in their right mind would want to start an airline company right now when established airlines are under extreme pressures to stay solvent? It is possible that airline companies could come out of this with more opportunities to grow as people's perceptions of the industry have changed.
Warren Buffett recently increased his stake in Delta Airlines which I construe as a sign the sector is depressed. Its noteworthy though that Delta Airlines is a special case because they have a natural hedge on oil price risk given that the company owns an oil refinery - but it is still encouraging.
If this pandemic causes another airline or two to go under it will be great for the surviving firms. I think my post from the other day still stands. Sentiment could carry the SP lower but I expect this to be a good investment for the medium to longer term . I will build a stake here over the course of time as I am sure many others are also doing.
Its all about your attitude to risk, mine is that if I fall off the roof an undertaker may be required but I will not likely know much about that as the drop is quite high but the benefit to me of acheiving doing something worthwhile and knowing its been done right is worth it to me. In terms of trading IAG I probably have the same attitude to risk, I have been taking risks but they have been paying off. You on the other hand termite would probably not take a risk, are you risk averse, it would not me if you are after putting all your eggs into one basket and then losing so much so I can sympathise with your predicament but don't let it make you freeze like a rabbit in a cars headlights which is what you seem to be doing.
a night on the tiles didn't end well for rod hull. safer sticking your arm up an emu's arze luddite. probably your kinda thing.
Be carefull a night on the tiles
I have been through a lot worse than croner virus in my time, for all I know I may already have had it and and its gone away, so yes you young whippersnapper I reckon I will be around to see £8 never mind 6, if I were you I would be more thinking will you be around to see it ? and I am not stuck indoors for 12 weeks, I am in the middle of fixing the ridge tiles on my roof which have been needing repairing for a long time, thankfully I bought all the stuff I need ages ago but I am keeping a sharp eye out for plod just on case old codgers are not allowed on the roof and even worse termite I am not wearing anything resembling safety gear so fixing the roof is probably a greater risk to my life right now than the virus. Any way termite carry on with your tripe, I always enjoy a nice bowl of tripe and onions.
Bhargav - IAG = BA and Iberia 9/11 time. Check out BA share price post 9/11. Not pretty. My feeling is that when quarterly reports start coming out there'll be another mark down across most sectors in the market. The first quarter will be ugly for most cos and the slowdown only took hold in March. The projections for second quarter will be close to zero income for IAG and the forward looking statements wont be pretty either.
BA/UK is suffering but that's nothing compared to Iberia/Spain, which is just about to take the unenviable position as number 1 on the corona virus cases/deaths league table. IAG is in trouble and today's RNS is spin. They're happy to say how much cash they have access to, but they don't tell you how long that will last do they? Doesn't matter how much you have if it's burning up fast.
Not aiming for anything, just expressing an opinion, which is what these boards are for. As for luddite, being in the high risk group and stuck indoors for 12 weeks is starting to tell, getting a little crotchety. Hey ho.
I wonder how long it'll take to burn through their reserves? Took a long time for airline industry to come back after 9/11. Once free movement returns watch for a second and third wave of infections. People wont be flying or cruising as much for the next year, maybe longer. Who wants to be stuck in a tin can breathing in the recirculated air sat next to god knows who from who knows where. russian roulette.
luddite you reckon you'll still be around next time this hits six quid?
True luddite, LTV seems to be aiming for a low entry point on quite a few co's at this time. IAG. CCL. 0JYW and others. His negativity will not make any of the SPs go any lower...that will be down to the market and any further govt. assistance. Any entry point around here will look pretty good in 12-18 months, so probably better to get in at a level you think is cheap rather than keep waiting for a lower low and then miss your entry. Strange how these dark times brings out the very worst in some of the worst people around.
Surely overheads will be lower, no staff to pay, as Gov will pay 80% no fuel to buy, even though it’s at an all time low at $22 a barrel so why would this tank further?
I hope for selfish reasons it does, as I’m not in here yet!
Surely if Gov steps in this will rise for a short time ! But no airlines will be going anywhere anytime soon, maybe Autumn but not sooner
Here he goes again , termview with his tripe not really understanding whats happening, the issues affecting IAG are now affecting lots of businesses as many are not closed not just airlines. IAG is now moving up or down with the market and early on in the crash they got hit first , IAG got close to 193 this morning and then went up by 4% in 30 minutes, this is what makes it one of the best along with the last tip I gave you, stop your whinging termite and go make some money instead of your constant moaning.
well fleet grounded that's why it went down from 650 to 200..and IAG was not exist at 9/11..it founded in Jan 2011 and never seen 2 figure mark!. Help in terms of loan or anything. Any support announced this will go up. May go down a bit but like 100p..just my opinion but lets see...I think its a good buy..
Shoot up?! On what basis. Fleet grounded for weeks/months to come. Any support IF it comes at all will be in the form of loans or dilution NOT freebies. Heading south from here.
don't think this will go to 100p..and if government will announce anything positive this will shoot up. Anything around this price is a good buy..good luck all
that buy back at 214p was a bit hasty. Easy Jet grounded their entire fleet today. Airlines bleeding cash and going nowhere and government still not making any moves to support the industry. 100p ill be tested. what was the 9/11 low 60p?
I think once we get passed the next few months and hopefully things start to return to normal, we should get back above £3 before end of the year. I think at current price a good long term bet. I sold out at 230p and brought back in at 214p. In here for the long run. Keep safe and remember social distancing.
450 target, - in 2023 maybe. not a buy any time soon.
BERENBERG CUTS IAG PRICE TARGET TO 450 (620) PENCE - 'BUY'