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I think a trade valued at 7million realistically can only be mm shares. We don't know how many they were left holding or whether the dump was in the morning or afternoon, but there was a dump of 7 million quids worth which will at least affect the trader reaction to sp. If you see 10x 7 million buys, how would you interpret that? Most, me included at the moment, do not see level 2. I'm not back in the game to that extent.
The sp can change from what it was at the close of trading so for pis if the sp was 100 at 16:30, but by 17:00 it is 105, then the trigger point for orders has changed and pis need to be aware and keep an eye on what is traded after the 'theoretical' market close. I never use stops, orders or the like and trade manually because of being caught like that.
The UT has no impact on the opening price.. as long as you don’t believe in any market manipulation etc.
If you do then yes there is potential, but following LOndon stock exchange guidance - it doesn’t, it’s factored into the closing price and there is no movement after the UT.
Additionally the UT will be higher relevant to the stock and number of trades I.e BP, Rio Tinto etc the most traded stocks
Inferno, my understanding of such a trade is that is was placed with the mm during trading, the mm couldn't find a match and therefore passed off chunks of it during trading. If they are unable to off load the sell then in order to keep the market working the mm buys the trade at a reduced price to the seller set by the mm and then sell it themselves at the market rate to avoid allowing a sudden distortion in the market. Also, the market did not know of a large dump at the time. Traders will now see it and therefore may follow suite to get ahead of a drop. The sp was not impacted in one go during the day with such a large trade as it was off loaded throughout. The privilege of the mm is in buying the share to regulate the market against sharp movements they can the set the market rate and keep the difference. They are not obliged to disclose the price they paid. Being a sell it means the market price is depressed but the true sp if the mm hadn't intervened would be much lower - and normally when mm intervention is revealed the sp moves in the same direction initially.
Well that is my understanding of how the mm regulate very large trades entering the market, they can set the price to cover themselves and so the sp on this occasion I will expect to be lower as the real effect of what the mm actually paid with millions of shares released being in supply feeds through. Oversupply - price drops.
@ big blue.... not a dig but do you understand the market ? You just posted the uncrossing trade UT... that is the trade that covers any outstanding trades through the day buy and sell and is already factored into the closing price
As for an opening price tomorrow, well just had a look for trades posted after market close,
05-Mar-21 16:35:07 203.90 3,618,095 Sell* 204.70 204.80 7m UT
And can't see anything to counter balance that. I am expecting a mark down in the morning as a continuation of the Friday afternoon trend.
The fact that California will open from April, shows that some businesses in the US (rightly or wrongly) can't wait any longer otherwise they will go bust. I think the same will be true in Europe (France, italy, spain greece...) just maybe a month later. Whilst boJo.gov has announced another 'check', I think is neither here nor there in practical terms. The genie is out of the bag and BoJo risks serious backlash (as well as his restriction being tested in court) from his own back bechers. I wouldn't be surprised if in a months time the restriction is removed and if it isn't I'm not convinced it will be an effective deterrent in any case. As this SP is currently sentiment based I see a reversal just as rapid back to 220. Any drop, even to 150 (however ludicrous and improbable) will not stay there long...
So do I top up on Monday to average down or wait for the improbable? We've all been here before whether LTH or STH. If your portfolio is in the red it makes sense to hold would it not?
So i'm guessing you'll be selling all your IAG shares on Monday waiting for the 150 or 100 price?
Did you fix your leaking bathroom?
Beware the jingoistic BBC stories..........
Well, media and broadcasting media in general. It has been a fun game for the broadcasters to have to adjust and as usual try and lead and coerce the 'new' wave of working, over video link. You would think there had never been a video conference pre covid the way some of the presenters go on. And of course, now they are 'in to it' this is the new norm. The BBC says it is the new norm because it thinks it has a degree of lead and influence over it. Therefore, by default, all business travel will cease, all personal contact will cease, all travel will cease and Zoooooom will live forever.
Pa! Video conferencing has been around for decades, it pre dates the world wide web. It does! I sat in on some at a junior level as satellite time drastically reduced in cost. Throughout all the tech advances, mobile phones, www, desktop video calling, social media and email, there has been one consistent factor. Person to person face to face has continued and indeed actually become more important. Look at the never ending growth in company activity days. Team building.
Now, the post lockdown economics will result in some degree of wfh staying, but it was on the increase for certain roles anyway. And the experience was also to ensure there were still regular office visits. So a return to business travel, is going to happen. The expense accounts might get trimmed a little to begin with, not so many business class rewards for middle management, for a while, but trying to stuff an executive familiar with business class into an isle seat with the chickens and goats???? The 'perk' will be be back faster than you can say "if she takes the Lloyds account with him, we loose 20% of our business - put her in business for Montreal next week." I will even predict, the wfh has had more of a negative impact, more of a reminder about the need to congregate as the social animal we are, and that there will eventually be MORE travel as the value of being in company will stick with us for a few generations to come and planet returns to becoming an ever smaller place as it was pre covid. I think Norwegian made a critical error in judgement and there will be a significant capacity issue towards the end of THIS year and the 'left turn' seats maybe selling for higher prices pre covid due to supply and demand.
Here endith the lesson. Please stand to sing Psalm number 384, "And the Lord gave us wings to fly".................
I agree to all of what u mentioned, I also agree 300 will come, I still believe correction is on the cards.
The only thing is Business travel may not come back as you mentioned in the same volume. If you agree most of the airlines profit depends on the density of Business travel, I believe that will remain thin for at least 2-3 years.
My best wishes to everyone on this board.
It is always useful to have civilised debate and I am thankful to each one of you for your kind comments. Have a great Sunday
My reasons for believing that 300 is much more likely than 150 in the months to come.
1. Vaccinations at a very high pace in the US and evidence that vaccines are being effective by about 80-90%.
US is the top destination for BA flying to over 20 cities there.
2. Vaccinations fast picking up in Europe.
France, Italy and Spain are amongst top 5 BA destinations after US and UK. Tourism comprises significant part of their economy and they would do all they can to ensure another tourist season is not washed out.
3. Collapse of Norwegian, acquisition of Air Europa and less long haul competition from Virgin puts IAG in a much better market position than before the pandemic.
4. Pent up demand with people looking to go on holidays after a prolonged stay at home.
5. IAG has used the pandemic as an opportunity to get rid of various legacy problems. It’s has restructured and refocused to be more profitable in future.
6. Lot of FI money would be flowing into pandemic recovery sector from tech and other overvalued sectors.
IAG is likely to be a big beneficiary and already seeing high share trading volumes.
On the downside, the pandemic recovery could take longer than anticipated but most indicators suggest opposite.
Business travel may not return to pre Covid. But this affects all long haul players who will adapt to this in various ways to stay profitable.
I will be holding AZN, cannabis I will add on around 16 levels and ITM will be a add on @ 420
But yes, I decided to exit both BP and IAG but that is my personal evaluation
I think tomorrow will be good day to exit as FTSE is expected to rise based on futures. It’s always good to exit on high, again that’s my strategy
Correction based on what ? Sorry chap, am not sniping but you make a number of sensational statements with nothing to back them up - when pushed you talk about using a ‘sense’. Fair call never ignore your gut, on the off chance if you sense the lottery numbers shout up on this board
Looking at your trading record in itm, knb, azn, I doubt if you dared to jump in iag in the past!
But I am happy to know you have made good profit in iag.
Yes Sir, my buying levels were 92, 136 and 157
Will be selling them all with good gains
There is a ceiling for any stock
I think we are very close to IAG ceiling
UK is doing very well with vaccinations but rest of the world is still very slow and stock rise has already factored the anticipatory good news but the travel now needs to actually open before further slow rise will happen
I do agree that 300 will come but before that there is a correction in waiting
Also, there is the volume to keep an eye on. As smash and grab pis think they have milked as much as they can, the herd moves on to the next target (Boohoo was mentioned earlier and with the results expected in 6 weeks or so there are potential trading opps there). As volume drops, the sp will drop too, it is just the nature of the market. With lower pi volume, the fundamentals become more of an influence with iis making trades in the millions at a time. There is also the unique attribute to the current market, spoilt for choice for recovery stocks. This may dilute the usual smash and grab herd so do be wary about past performance precovid. Bagging a winner on the market has always had a degree of luck to it, I think that is even now more the case. Lower volume with IAG will result in slower swings and reduce the amplitude of the peaks and troughs. Of course, you can always switch tactic and increase the size of your trading, or pull out altogether and count your profits for the remainder of lockdown.
Did you use your sense to buy iag when it was around 100 or even 150-160?
Or is it like you missed buying there and now you want to buy if it gets to 160?
Let’s meet again here in 2-3 weeks ...
It will be clear if it goes back toward 150’s or move forward to 300.
I guess it would probably not go to either extreme but I certainly feel moving backwards with profit booking is more of a probability.
I am just using my sense here but I wish all the best who are still holding, personally I would be looking at discounts