The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi ArK, I'm not sure poo will help HUR all that much. They have a significant amount of debt about to mature, which means they need access to funding quickly. On top of that, they need additional funding to extend their current production base. So funding as a going concern and to cover maturing debt. The fact they've mentioned 'convertible noteholders' as a means to raise the needed funds can only mean massive dilution for PIs. In other words poo being strong now would only help if their debt was to mature in 2 years, as they'd be in a better position to restructure their loan. It will however help the vultures who will no doubt take more than their pound of flesh from HUR when they negotiate terms for extra funding. Incredible the naivety of some investors.
Cheers Tony. That is helpful.
Fastfood,
They done seem to go out of their way to report the Oil component which is surprising since historically this seems to be the most valuable fraction. I pulled it from the bar chart on page 44 of the re-admission document. Its difficult to read the chart properly and the Oil number is probably higher at 1500 to 1600 bopd. The gas fraction seems to be reasonably consistent at roughly 58 -60% of the mix, but I understand there can be more variations in the Oil / NGL & Condensate fractions depending on various factors.
Hi Tony / Value your input here. Where do you source the info that we only produce 1300 Actual Barrels of Oil ? Yes we do have 12 Products in the mix and 41% Liquids / and Majid stated “We do need to get more Oil Online”.
Happy to be in Gas anyway tbf as that is the route Rockrose went and retained Value via their Gas Exposure. We need that gas !!
Ark87,
Dont know Hurricane very well , I took a quick look at it a year or so back. It looks like things havent gone so well for them since. High debt, lost their long time CEO and founder, pushed back development drilling a year. I would tend to side with GGG from what I see at a glance. Even Malcy seems a bit glum.
250k buy at 7.95
G_G_G . Not invested in HUR anymore more... sold out after last disastrous RNS for 20% loss expecting 100-200% dilution at 1-2p . They are pulling out a lot of oil though and i think they could turn it around. What price of oil do you think they need to make it? Would love to hear Tony's opinion of HUR also. Impossible to have proper unbiased discussion on their board without rampers/de-rampers shouting you down.
JAdam,
We're a Gas Stock with a bit of Oil - we only produces about 1300 bopd Oil. Also they have to deliver the dividend - lets see whether it meets expectation.
Agree JAdam, HUR are f@cked and there's simply no way out for PIs. There's huge future dilution to come over there. Maybe we should start hitting boards such as HUR, TLW, PREM etc So much money in those stocks with such a risky future.
As for 10p, I agree this is fair value with expected divi payout confirmed. If the initial divi payment is generous, which I'm hoping the bod will do to build a new base at 10p, then we could breach this level. Throw in some Noel drills and we're comfortably above 10p. And with a f/o on decent terms then yes I agree 15p would be the realistic target. I'd expect us to breach this 15p in future in the run up to drill results, providing of course poo and gas are in a similar place to now. If they strike anywhere near 100m recoverable and we still own 25-30% of the assets then we'll jump through 20p. Nailed on 50-100% rise in the coming weeks and months providing commodity prices stay relatively stable. I'm going to hang around for the f/o news to drop. If drilling is scheduled soon after I'll probably wait until we get results, plus a divi payment for my time :) All incredibly exciting here.
Yep agree Tony there's a few 'unknowns' that we need ironed out. But on the surface the bod numbers are close to Mirabaud, but perhaps a little light.
GGG,
I agree - the RNS is light compared to Mirabaud whichever way you slice it. Bear in mind that I3E have not given a figure for the dividend and the number everyone has in mind is the Mirabaud number.
Also, the RNS states:
"forecasted 2021 net operating income (revenue minus royalties, opex, transportation and processing) of approximately CAD $35 million (US $27.6 million) based on mid-February strip pricing, an estimated maintenance capital budget of approximately CAD $3 million and excluding any additional production volumes associated with i3's recent Noel production test (referenced below)"
I3E have defined Operating Income above - is G&A deducted ?
Mirabauds $29.6 - is G & A deducted ?
regards
Really? For net operating income? Haven't seen that. At least it starts to align a little more, but we still need the 'mid-February strip pricing' values the bod is using to truly compare.
I just dropped a note on HURs billboard. Never do this normally but the number of investors over there that have lost their shirt and are about to lose their trousers on the most recent rns is scary. I shared some of the future good news to be had here. No doubt a wave of abuse coming my way. But at least some of them will get a chance to make some money here in the coming months, rather than be diluted to oblivion over there. Disaster stock that one. I'd rather play Russian roulette with my balls than invest in that stock on recent news. So many gamblers who get emotionally attached to a stock.
Hi GG,
I believe Mirabaud themselves revised their estimate to just shy of $30M in November
Bloody hell this site does my head in sometimes. Tony, I posted a very lengthy response to you last night. Summary as follows:
SP increase will be driven on the expectation of news i.e. the expectation that a divi will be confirmed and paid soon, exploration and production increases in Canada, f/o completion. Based on expected delivery of above newsflow and current financials this is why we'll move up to 'fairer value' and sit in the 9-10p range over the next week or so. Also, I (and you) have said many times on current oil and gas prices we are very under-value, so every day we sit at these prices the market builds more confidence in fcf and divi payment.
RNS v Mirabaud (November update). Fact is we simply don't have enough information to truly compare the operational update numbers with what Mirabaud have supplied, which I imagine you already know. I have no idea what the bod are using for 'mid-February strip pricing' in order to forecast USD$27.6m net operating income. I also don't have access to our average margins across our oil, gas and ngl assets.
What I can say at a top-line level is the USD$27.5m projection looks a little light. If we use mid-February strip pricing range for Brent, which appears to be our benchmark, it ranges form $61-66 (09.02 - 24.02), and for AECO we have $2.80-3.20 (09.02-24.02). Other than the massive difference in prices for the 2 weeks through mid-February, I'd have expected our oil revenue to be higher given Mirabaud were working from $45 Brent (-10%) and i3e's projected actual net operating income would be working off circa $63 (-10%). If one was to use the same margins as applied by Mirabaud then we should be making at least another USD$10m revenue from the 2021 Mirabaud baseline. If i3e are using $3.00 for AECO, and the margins are roughly similar, these numbers should at least align. But again, this relies on a lot of assumptions on information we simply don't know.
Bottom line is USD$27.5m looks light. How light depends on the margin we get for our oil production, but if we take a general Mirabaud rule of thumb of net operating income being 40% of revenue, then we should be around USD$4m higher from oil alone. Given NGL appears to be worked from Brent in Mirabaud's analysis there's probably another USD$2m. Mirabaud estimated USD$26.8 net operating income so the difference is USD$0.8m versus bod forecast, rather than circa USD6m, so I'm thinking circa USD$5m light. But again, impossible to say until we know strip pricing being used and average margins. Hope this helps to outline why I said 'we look a little light'. But, one needs to keep in mind that if we increase production by even near 5,000boepd from our Canadian assets, we will be throwing off more cash especially if poo and gas stays around the $60 Brent and $3 AECO range. We already have an extra 500boepd, and I'd hope we can at least add 3,000 boepd by end of year. HTH GLA
Dummy trades around that time would have shown you they were not all buys bud...
I’m very encouraged by this company and more than happy with my position btw before I get hair dryered
I was able to sell full holding all day except around the times of these larger trades, Also the bid has been above mid for most of the day...
Great weekend all (hehe)
Tony, if Messrs 100K, 400K and 500K continue to build their positions, that's all the driver we need. It would be nice to think that perhaps they have some inside information. Maybe a Dolphin Drilling employee?
GGG,
What is going to drive the SP to 9-10p by the end of the week without news?
Did you take a look at the Mirabaud report and compare Operating Income?
Not yet Forrest, but soon. I'm sticking with my 9-10p prediction for the end of the week. That's of course barring any news. If the bod confirm the divi and it's higher than expected for the first payment then we could breach 10p on this alone. There's also f/o, increased exploration / production news that could land at any point in time as well. The divi and increased exploration are certainties over the next 1-2 months. The wild card is f/o. This could easily add 2-4p depending on terms and how quickly the drill bit will be turning. For example if we hold onto a reasonable % with plans are to drill multiple targets in the summer, then I'd expect the higher end of 2-4p will be in play. All very exciting and still a massive bargain at 8p. Fair value post divi confirmation 10-12p. GLA
15 mins left for final before 8p
This has been along time coming, but we made it.
GLA