The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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“50% undervalued, and not sure what catalysts this team has to get the market to give it the valuation it thinks it deserves.”
canuck, enough of the negative bull****. did you listen to the webinar earlier this month? montney and clearwater drilling campaigns are starting later this year and will be ramping up in 2025. please just cut your loses and sell and buy $cnq. $ite laid out some very clear and realistic catalysts. not to mention that they are hedging 2025 at $3.40 or 3x current strip!!
Https://1drv.ms/i/c/0c8247dcfb29aa84/EW_aNief5m5Oo8EEeDJCyAcBOTKqD3ecypft1uW0ri6miQ?e=rRjmRL
This graph supports what I said below - i.e. that PDP values are dependent on the assumptions / price decks you use so if your comparing valations against peers - calculations should be made on the same basis.
As per graph - I3e trades at 60% of PDP where as the median company trades at 130% of PDP. Assuming that we should trade at the median (+/-), this would put us a lot closer to the 20p valuation that i3e stated in the podcast
"50% undervalued " - Maybe, maybe not. i3e in their recent podcast stated that they traded at 55% of PDP whereas peers traded at 100%. On that basis i3e claimed SP to be worth 20p on a PDP basis. Tennyson have done their own DCF calculation so you you would have to check calculations / assumed Oil & Gas pricess vis a vis peers to ensure its a like for like comparison.
The chart is setting up very nicely IMO.
Interesting read.
Calling for 38p price target, on 2P basis and Brent $65 and AECO $3/mcf (USD)
On a PDP basis price target is 15p. In Canada gas weighted names are valued at PDP, so 15p is the number to look for, not the 38p.
50% undervalued, and not sure what catalysts this team has to get the market to give it the valuation it thinks it deserves.
'The data you are quoting I assume is from the AIF - thats only available through SEDAR correct ?'
As I stated, it is all from the AIF: no need for you to assume!
And the AIF, although required by Canada and released through SEDAR, is on the i3E website.
Try https://wp-i3energy-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/05/i3Energy_AIF.pdf if you can't get through SEDAR.
Just noticed a 134k buy @ 11.32p early doors here today - director buy ??
He may have referenced access to capital but he most certainly talked about the cost and regulatory burden of a main market listing.
Agree Joe that the EOG report is for 2022 but as 2022 was a boom year and 2023 was a bit of a reset / recession for i3e - I was pretty confident that the 2022 might overstate the numbers if anything for UK employees.
The data you are quoting I assume is from the AIF - thats only available through SEDAR correct ?
@Tony re headcount on Advfn:
Although the ESG was released in 2024, the period covered is 2022. There is text 'Unless otherwise stated, this report presents data and information from the year 2022.'
(Wonder when we get the 2023 issue! Seems most of the info was in the 2023AR.)
However, "As at December 31, 2023, i3 Energy’s UK operations had one full-time employee, three part-time employees and two consultants/contract operators, all located in the UK offices."[cf. 4 UK employees (4 FT / 0 PT), 2 UK contractors]
and 49 Canadian employees (49 FT / 0 PT), 75 Canadian contractors has become 53 full-time employees, one part-time employee and 73 consultants/contract operators.
All from the AIF: worth a read imo...
HTH
IBB_INVEST,
Your posts on CA CEO ITE have generally been pretty decent - for some reason you have decended to silly here !
You already told me which was question you submitted and seemed to be pretty chuffed with yourself that Majid ackowledged that your question was not just valid but "very valid". A gold star to you my friend !
I did not ask any questions on sharebuybacks , i3e's stance was made clear months ago. My podcast questions were on Serenity and the Capital Restructure and you are incorrect (again) on the Capital Restructure - the latest restructure is still in the court / company house process - i.e. not approved yet.
The previous capital structure as far as I know is approved though I dont recall seeing the final RNS confirming that it had been registered with Company House.
This did raise the even more "very valid" question why it was required as the previous restructure would have covered dividends for years to come. The nuiance here may have escaped you - so worth repeating here and as infered by the I3e response to the question - the reason for the latest capital restructure is to ensure they have sufficient distributable reserves in case they have to take a write down (impairment charge) on Serenity. If it was a full write down, this would have prevented the payment of dividends, this new restructure would remedy this.
Ha! I do regularly email IR and several of the questions from the webinar were mine! I bet that the stupidest question about when is a share buyback starting now that the capital reduction program was approved was from Tony!
Actually Majid said how much he liked the easy access to capital on AIM. Might be the motive for the Works as well.
This company is such a difficult hold. Another disposal of non-core assets would certainly help. GLA
Meeting was positive and helps those on board keep sanity. Still surprised at market reaction to budget. Company with £130m mcap spending £40m on drilling this year, into a rising price environment, seems decent.
Good spot JMort - this is exactly how i3e responded to the same question put to them in a previous "investor meet company" podcast i.e. the cost and regulatory burden is too much for a Company of i3e's size.
Some have commented on this BB how being listed on AIM negatively affects I3E share price. Interesting that The Works has just moved from the main market of the LSE to AIM. Not that I3E is big enough for the ftse 250 (yet!) but this does highlight the benefits of AIM.
The directors argued that an admission to AIM would be more appropriate for the retailer due to the cost and regulatory requirements of the main market becoming progressively higher in recent years and disproportionately burdensome.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1046775/the-works-completes-cost-saving-move-to-london-s-junior-market-1046775.html
Tony agrees !
Jezzoo agrees.
Panama Pete says there’s something weird about people who speak in the third person.
How was the humble pie ?
I'm not always right, but when you're right, your right - right ?
and by the way, the improvement in i3e IR had nothing to do with you - it was due people like myself that took the time to write into i3e rather than have a rant on this BB like you. Maybe you have learnt something new - less rant and more emails to the Company !
Ah Tony you fell for it. A long essay explanation to show that Tony is always correct in response to my tongue in cheek joke to you. Some mistakes in your rant below:
- Majid said that my question was “very valid” not just valid.
- he said he really hopes that National Bank does pick up coverage as they have been lobbying them. He said he there is another UK analyst coverage pending, not that he hoped for more UK coverage.
Have a cup of tea and chillax a bit and be happy that i3 IR & shareholder communication has improved immensely from IBB_Invest’s instance to management from Tony’ prior status quo low expectations ;-)
When you’re ready to eat a bit of humble pie – let me know, i'll warm it up for you and serve it with a bit of gravy.
As i've said before - not being rude but you are only 10% of the share registry - the UK holders are curretly much more important and is why they are looking to add another UK analyst.
IBB_Invest - I don’t suppose the excellent question on Canadian Coverage came from you, did it? Regardless, you cheery picked his response and completely skipped over the comments made on why the coverage is as it is. As a reminder, the point you were making a month back was that peers had up to 10 investment banks covering them indicating that i3e’s Canadian marketing was deficient(IYO). You also went on to say that they only had 1 third rate analyst covering them in Canada.
No one is disputing that more buying in Canada would be a good thing. All Majid has said is that the question is valid. He’s hardly going to say it’s a stupid question. Majid explained why there was less coverage than peers which you conveniently skipped over and its all to do with money and how much these investment banks can make out of the Companies they cover. This is discussed further in i3e’s response to the SPECIFIC comments you originally made in quotes below:
“The Canaccord Genuity analyst covering i3e is not a third-rate analyst… Investment banks have their own criteria to consider when allocating their resources. One criteria is the amount of income they might receive from trading volumes in the stock and potential investment banking income generated from the relationship developed with the corporate entity. Small cap stocks like i3 Energy have more limited trading volumes and in i3 Energy’s case as circa 90% of its shareholding is UK based, the majority of its liquidity is on the AIM market ... It is especially true for small cap stocks that institutional shareholders typically appear on the register as part of an equity raising process because there is not enough liquidity to build significant positions in open market trading without materially moving the price. The equity raised by i3 Energy to fund its acquisitions in Canada was all raised in the London market in 2020 and 2021, when the North American equity market for small cap Canadian oil and gas stocks was extremely limited. I3 Energy has grown its Canadian shareholding over time from circa 3% to just over 10% and we expect it to continually to grow organically, particularly the retail element. A significant growth in the institutional shareholding percentage will take longer and will likely be associated with an equity raise in Canada, for which the Company has no plans at the moment.”
So, in short you have not been vindicated, you cherry picked the answer, ignored Majids specific comments on coverage or at least did not understand them and took the snippet you did quote out of context.
A question for you – if Majid was really saying that increased trading in Canada was key and that the way to do it was by increasing coverage – he would do it surely? He gave no indication of doing this other than lobbying Canadian National Bank and indeed went onto say that they hoped to add another UK analyst!!!!
When you’re ready to eat a bit of humble pie – let me know, i'll w