Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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Definitely not a shorters video haha
magic, definitely of interest as long as by 'shorter vid' you don't mean 'a video for shorters'.... :)!
Ah yes Teck would make more sense, thanks Luke2 and Aimtodeath. If you know football, I wondered if Vermelho is like Paul Pogba where Vale are Man Utd who let him go early on only to spend millions buying him back later haha.
Side note - I've been doing some homework on the region. I was considering doing a shorter vid or maybe a summary article on the Carajas mining area where our two projects are based. If that's of interest let me know :)
I don't think Vale are the ones to look at here. Orion, Teck and Glencore are insiders already, Vale would have to prise it from their grip I should think.
I’m going for Teck as they are they are the biggest shareholder. They also have no nickel mines and some activist investors who want them to move away from oil sands and coal.
They also have someone on our board ....
Very nice average SJ and you make some valid points about the GGP board, it can be a bit mental sometimes. I'm a little newer here so I read above that some here think a T/O is possible of HZM. My knowledge of Brazil miners is that Vale are among the bigger players. Given Vermelho used to be theirs, is that the prime candidate people are thinking? Just curious
Averaging down can be more risky than averaging up, because up one is going in the right direction and you are more likely to have put more money in because of positive fundamental changes....
Well done SJ a great holding and hope it comes good for you. I think your average is good and will make money from there, hopefully plenty of it. Always takes a seasoned view to average up but this is one stock where (at this price) still a no brainer IMO.
Well got my 225k last HZM top up early this morning in low 7.5's as hoped. So now done & with a round 10 million shares here.Not reworked avg, will be in the highish 4p's now. But I am positive on the future here, so have tried to back that up. Lets see where it progresses in next few Q's I guess? I still hold 3.145 million GGP, mainly to see if the current pullback there (managed to slice the funds I needed for HZM today at 24.26p odd, but now its dropping again - down to 22's for now at least) will reverse. I am of the view it will have more legs yet most likely. Its had a few pullbacks in the last 8 months but has always moved on afterwards. However, unlike so many punters on that crazy LSE GGP board do try and appreciate that things don't just keep going up in straight lines! Frankly some of those posters on that site shouldn't be allowed near a share portfolio IMO.. Anyhow good luck all here. Strum.
Thanks Djryan777,
You can probably tell that my nervousness of shares have been generated by sticking with oil companies and the associated volitile sp.
I've gained a massive amount of confidence in hzm from reading some very in depth posts.
I certainly will increase my investment here.
All the best
There was a 2 million share trade worked in the morning on GGP, so plenty of liquidity. Auctions threw up 100k-350k shares being offered both sides. There was a twitter tweet I saw discussing the valuation against 5 producers whom together were worth less, so you are going to get seeds of doubt thrown in by people now looking to short or buy in lower causing ripples. Gold had a poor day too so could be tied to just that. It perhaps does have more to go, but where it is in its cycle it maybe considered overshot for now. Heck HZM has how many Billions in value in the ground and valuation is peanuts, certainly got some catchign up to do!
SJ - My numbers are maybe 25% of yours, but absolutely spot on for the long game.
Hi DJ. Saw your note on top up. Good call. Price here wobbled fractionally, so if you got in around 7.5p that's a result no doubt. I followed GGP today, plus that manic board (some great analyst - including Magic now of this parish, but also rafts of total dross frankly), which by the law of sod of course also stalled. My plan was to slice off a bit more of my holding there - assuming huge bull run continued & to add to my 9.775 mill here & reach 10 mill. I needed to only flog circa 75000 there to get my 225k here with slightly depressed target prices. But GGP didn't play ball and sort of inevitably retraced off its 25p, in fact spent all day under the 24.42 I leveraged the other day. So I wasn't prepared to slice at 23.7 or what ever was on offer. With the much pushed tracker inclusion due COP tomorrow I suspect though I'll have lots of opportunities again? If HZM stays depressed (only relatively of course) at 7 5s that would suit for top up. If it's back in the 7 7s or more then pragmatically so be it. Here my game is a longer one. In the future 7 5 or 7.75 will be immaterial. Just as 1.6 or 1.9 from Nov 2019 in GGP is now one would hope. I am a bit of a logic guy, so that 10 mill appeals as hoping the maths divisions will be easier on any gain. Will get there in next few days I hope. All the best. Strumm.
Pickedpeck, thanks for this. I too see a lowly figure for equity raise. Likewise, I can’t imagine an offer being made before the financing is announced - due before the end of December (provided there is no slippage). An offer is one thing but it doesn’t mean we would accept the first offer - I’d expect a bit of a bun fight! In the light of Peel Hunt’s forecast of 33p, I am hoping any offer would be 33+ as this, to my way of thinking, would reflect shareholder value. Brokers forecasts are not to be taken as gospel but what is HZM worth with finance in place? ATB
Sorry DJ...that should read ‘done buying’
I agree with your comment on buying....i thought that I was one buying too.
Sliced some out of GGP yesterday and put a couple of 133k tranches in. This has the compelling upside story from this point.
Torn also forgot, there are mines ready to go, developed or be expanded......but they have such high C1 costs they need $20k/t Nickel price to even make it worth their while, so Nickel sweet spot for us is $16-20k doubles our NPV but keeps competition out of the market
Aimtodeath thank you for responding to my questions much appreciated.
It was stuck in a rut at 3.4p, 4p, 5p and look where it is now. Don't let the noise deter you from being in for the bigger news. Having a little read of the RNS', video presentations and blogs like Sponge's should keep you abreast of the news and company position and won't lead to abuse on the board here when on a weak day you ask do we need to raise cash..... Thats a one way street to abuse.... :)
Thanks for all your replies, I had sold out this morning after seeing the sp un fairly stuck in a rut.
Your excellent responses have led me to buy back in!!
I've also learned that I didn't learn much in school either!!
As for big companies putting resources together in the years just passed, not just last year BHP was actually trying to sell of Nickel assets, then flipped to developing it for EVs Class 1 supply, so the certainly were not in the business of finding, developing or buying them. Hence there is a believed long term 'pipeline' shortage.
Picked, I would say that the funding and how and who does it woudl be very different depending on the mine owner would it not. Teck would have a very different deal than HZM and in fact either Glencore or Teck could finance it themselves and get moving.
Torn - I think outside of Indonesia new mines ready to go (certainly mining districts the size of HZM's are rare - could be top10 producer) are few and far between even for stainless supply and years in the making. Big metals companies are in the business of 'market share' it is not just having a finger in a pie but also controlling the supply and being a player in the game that is important too as you can negotiate larger supply contracts if you directly control it. When it comes to EVs that is another story completely, in 10 years if things go as many predict there will be a bun fight for resources and many will look to secure away from Asia and poor ESG to ensure their supply. The Vermelho card is very much not played yet.
Raise funds no - they have about £17m cash at hand left over from the Orion deal last year. There will likely be some equity dilution to complete the $440m finance package to build Araguaia, $325m debt position already announced. Likely that ECAs will help with equipment purchases reducing the raise required, and also Brazillian banks are likely to contribute on top of the $325m so the final equity could be anywhere from $100m down to nothing. The final piece may be additional offtake agreements like the Orion one.
Take out is possible at any point as there are no massive holders to defend against it. Teck are best positioned to do it and have a board member already, I think that indicates they are already thinking about it. A suspicious mind would suggest they are waiting for the full finance package to be in place as it de risks the project from their point of view. Once third party funding is in place they don't have to commit their own cash to developing the mine(s), depending on what they would have to pay for the balance of the shares at that point. Right now a number in the teens would likely secure it. Next year it would have to begin with a 2, maybe even a 3.
Your theory seems very plausible.
Thanks to Bob's post too.
Tanking not ranking.