Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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The market makers have got no shares today for some reason unless hint of finance deal??
So if Peel Hunt have a TP of 30p..
That suggests a worst case significant equity raise.. (refer to Wasaruuner previous post)
BUT 100% uplift from here..
Anyone seen anything RE Peel Hunt Note??
What are the chances they can use the, imo, pointlessly allocated 16m$ at this stage allocation in vermelho to help fund the project?
So, we know cannacord & peel hunt think placing, which seems pretty industry standard.
Glencore are the offtake partner, tungsten west, have, got offtake partner loans along with other companies in the past so wouldn't necessarily rule this out as at least a portion.
Bridging loan is off the table given the high interest and fast payback demand.
Any other thoughts?
Same here, risky gamble but halved my average.
Hoping for good rns soon, prepared to lose the lot if not.
Money I can afford to take risks with.
GLA
Finally took 5he plunge to average down a little, two transactions of 50k and 100k shares.
Cheers. Interesting response with plenty to think about. I also feel a recovery is on the cards HZM has come too far along to fail now.
GL
>>So I'm betting on a recovery to former levels (at worst)
By which I mean, former levels in terms of SP being £1.50 I am betting will be achieved with either A1 producing at nameplate, or A1+A2 producing at nameplate. Not what anyone wanted we were here for more but running out of cash mid build and needing say $200m is going to hurt you somewhat which is what I am expecting to play out here.
Stringer you asked on the ACP board what I thought about Horizonte. Though shock at the massive drop (still think they should have suspended at the first RNS) for a variety of reasons I've reasoned through and others here I see the current stakeholder too complicated (5-8 senior lenders including ECA, 3 cornerstone investors) for either a full corporate restructure, or 'no finance deal' as being likely outcomes as the amount of funding required (say, $200m though we don't know the figure precisely) is still only something like 25% of total capex spend when all in, of which much has already been spent. It is c. half of equity already raised and c. 66% of debt already raised and nobody will want to loose what they put in (Orion, La Mancha) to another party.
In terms of the financing deal itself of course it'll be really complicated (we are obviously hoping for a lot of royalty/debt in the deal and hopefully less equity especially at current levels) but I think value will be preserved for shareholders, how much remains to be seen but I could live with up to 1bn shares in issue post finance because if that gets A1+A2 built you are still looking at a £1.50sp potential.
So I'm betting on a recovery to former levels (at worst) and hopefully better outcomes are still possible. That makes the current shareprice very cheap, obviously.
"I'll miss the original rise but get in on the second in good time before production."
That's your call and good luck, but the funding announcement will be significantly more impactful on the sp than continuing construction.
That's a great question,
My thinking is when the funding comes there's still going to be a while before the Construction is completed and that's the area/zone I'd like to buy-in at.
I'll miss the original rise but get in on the second in good time before production.
"Even though this is a tier 1 mine, I will still wait for funding before buying in."
I understand your concern Bebeto, but what price you buy when funding announced?
Fortune favours the brave as they say.
Way too much money spent here for it to fail now.
Good to see the SP fairly stable, there's been no more larger holder's selling down which bodes well for the extra funding.
Even though this is a tier 1 mine, I will still wait for funding before buying in.
Bankrupty, i can vouch for that just did 135K and the bid was hit immediately, and im definitely a buy!
A copy of the previous link, you can watch the video which is in English.
https://pt.linkedin.com/posts/horizonteminerals_v%C3%ADdeo-corporativo-horizonte-minerals-activity-7110636491139092480-N_eK
One of the recent presentations said they’d already spent 50,000,000 rel about £8,000,000 strengthening bridges and upgrading the roads to site
Have you got a link to make it easier for us all to see? Cheers.
Yep, the (real) spread is maybe the the tightest it has ever been. A little bizarre, maybe the big orders have dried up a bit? Can't see L2 order book, but when a 100k trade has gone through in the last few days it has really nudged the price either way.
Got to say i am surprised by how liquid this is on the buy and sell side.
There are a million shares ( pre-consolidation) bought and sold recently and no problems trading this amount
Not that important but anything at or below 16.55p is a sell and there are not that many real sells today......most rest is buys! I topped up myself just below 16.6p.
Headder,
I agree and disagree with your post. Firstly I don't think A2 will be funded just by FCF anymore either, particularly if the cornerstones want to accelerate it to get to payback quicker. It will likely be funded by equity, just not at these prices. I don't think the current round of financing will include A2, but you never know, it might.
Nickel price trajectory is notoriously hard to call. Analysts did predict a fall towards the end of 2023 but sharp price rises later in 2024 and beyond as supply constraints come up as demand increases. You still see the longer contract prices far higher than the spot price which supports this view. Nickel has also been hit less hard than some other metals, HSBC indicated this week that the worst of China's internal financial crisis is past and that economy is expected to return to growth, potentially spiking demand again. For now the chart looks to be levelling off at $18k a ton.
A large royalty would be a wild card here. I am sure royalty has to play a part in the fund raise as equity dilution at these prices still makes no sense as we have kicked around endlessly. Too big a royalty compromises profitability, too small and it leaves too much left to get over the line. I'd bet on a fixed term higher (10%) royalty leaving long term profits in play. 10% @ 5 years is 1800 x 14500 x 5 = $130m if nickel flatlines, so you would expect maybe $100m to buy it.
Nickel at $18k gives:
$18k - existing royalties and production taxes - Glencore discount = ~$16k
$16k - AISC (~$10k) = $6k a ton to pay debt and royalties.
$6k - 10% new royalty = $4200
$4200 x 14500 nameplate = $61m p.a. to pay down debt and bottom line profit.
Nickel back to $22k gives:
$22k - existing royalties and production taxes - Glencore discount = ~$20k
$20k - AISC (~$10k) = $10k a ton to pay debt and royalties.
$10k - 10% new royalty = $7800
$7800 x 14500 nameplate = $113m p.a. to pay down debt and bottom line profit.
Relatively small price rises and falls in Ni create a disproportionate outcome. It really comes down to the macroeconomic environment.
Ditto that - has to be done by (latest) mid December IMO. At this stage you are burning a lot of cash. I expect the reason we can continue uninterrupted at this stage is because all parties have a very high % degree of certainty that a funding solution will arise, and that therefore the current cash burn is justified (as opposed to suspending operations for now, with the additional cost of restarting them again once a solution is found). You don't continue to burn cash as you approach a precipice unless you agree the precipice isn't a precipice IMO. The funding solution will be sooner, than later and I think Nov or early Dec.
I don't know how long the gap in time between the 'figure required' RNS and the 'funding' RNS especially as the figure is likely to be approximately known now, so plenty of time to thrash out a framework agreement ahead of its publication but I would expect 2-3 weeks might do it. So countdown starts when we know the number.
We were also promised an Araguaia 2 DFS at some point in Q4 (was it mid Q4?) so that may feature in the announcements but not sure at what point.
Rover
I think this has to be all resolved before Christmas late in this quarter. Most of what has gone wrong was the pull out of a contractor not delivering what they were contracted to do. The company has replaced them but it takes time for the new entrant company to get up to speed and deliver. What we do not know is why that contractor decided to let HZM down. The new contractor needs certainty fairly quickly.
Billy ramper,
I think Kindergarden comments is what you have been making since 1st week of October, read them back yourself, all there. Here is small snippet. End of conversation as far I am concerned. On the filter list
"Next week update coming. I genuinely think by Thursday an update will be provided …the SP hopefully will be up to anywhere around 35/40p and then beyond that it’s a crystal ball as demand will soar."